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Monday, July 9, 2012

Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Centamin, Bovis Homes and JJB Sports


From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 9th July 2012

Competition

Congratulations to Joe Neduvelil whose caption (below) has been voted the funniest and has won the Friday competition. Watch out for another contest later in the week.

"... Diamond jubiloser"

The Markets

Europe's benchmark indices fell, Spain's 10-year bond yield rose back above 7% and the euro hit a 2-year low against the dollar as Eurozone officials commented that they would not rush to a decision on the loan conditions for Spain's banking sector bailout. Investors are evidently worried that with the clock ticking and Spanish banks under immense stress, any further delays will dig them into an even deeper hole. Subsequently, the yield on a six-month German bond fell to a record low of -0.03% at auction, and even at this level the auction was oversubscribed. With the Eurozone in its current state German sovereign debt is in huge demand, which explains why risk-averse investors are willing to pay to lend to the government.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 66.49 points at 12,705.98 and the Nasdaq was down by 9.13 points at 2,603.16.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 35.30 points to 5,627.33; the FTSE 250 finished 87.30 points behind at 10,983.34; the FTSE All-Share lost 17.10 points to 2,919.75; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 1.91 points to 691.77.

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Broker Notes

Shore Capital retained its "sell" stance on Electrocomponents (ECM) ahead of its first quarter results release this Friday. The broker noted that the electronics distributor has maintained a robust performance against the weak economic backdrop, which it attributes to the firm's high exposure to maintenance and repair activity. However, when the climate improves, Shore expects the group to fall behind more cyclical peers, such as Premier Farnell (PFL). Shares in Electrocomponents inched down by 1.2p to 206.8p.

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "sell" recommendation for Robert Walters (RWA), with a reduced target price of 127p, from 131p. The job agency reported that weak demand from the banking sector lead to a 5% decline in both Asian and European profits and the broker believes this trend is likely to persist into 2013. As a result, Panmure cut its earnings per share forecasts by 19.3% to 7.1p for 2012 and 28.6% to 8.5p in 2013, putting the shares on a prospective multiple of 26.9 times for 2012 falling to 22.5 times in 2013. The shares tumbled by 5p to 191p.

Singer Capital maintained its "buy" recommendation for ASOS (ASC) with a 1,950p target price. The online fashion retailer noted a slowing in fourth quarter growth, which the broker attributed to tighter stock control. Singer now expects to see a new phase of reinvestment, which it believes will primarily benefit the mature UK market. The broker forecasts revenues of 10% in the UK and 47% internationally, for the current financial year, with margins increasing by 150 basis points. The shares slipped by 16p to 1,644p.

Canaccord Genuity kept its "buy" rating for Melrose Resources (MRS) with a target price of 200p. The broker said that the oil and gas explorer's South Khilala-2 well has begun production with a flow rate of 14 million cubic feet of gas per day, bringing total production rates at the field to 25mcfpd. Canaccord now looks towards the firm's exploration of the Kamchia prospect in Bulgaria, which it believes has a prospective resource of 27 billion cubic feet, with a 40% chance of success. The broker added that its valuation was underpinned by a core net asset value per share calculation of 189p. The shares gained 1.88p to 124p.

Blue-Chips

HSBC (HSBA) has agreed to sell its Reinsurance and Irish insurance operations to insurance firm Catalina Holdings, for an undisclosed sum, as it continues its strategy of off loading non-core businesses. The divisions had already ceased to write new business as of June 2010 and 2009 respectively and had combined gross assets of 273 million dollars (176.4 million pounds) as at 31st March 2012. HSBC shares edged down by 4.5p to 561.1p.

Mid-Caps

Centamin (CEY) shares crumbled by 6.95p to 66.5p on rumours that it had breached its concession agreement in Egypt. The claims were published by a local paper and were attributed to an unnamed government source. The gold miner issued a statement denying these claims, stating that "no notice of breaches have been served and operations at Sukari continue as normal" but this failed to significantly recover the share price.

Soco International (SIA) announced that it has begun production at its 30.5% owned H4 Wellhead Platform in the Te Giac Trang field in offshore Vietnam, one month ahead of schedule. The field currently produces around 42,000 barrels of oil per day and the hydrocarbon explorer expects this new well to increase production to 55,000 barrels of oil per day. Separately, the firm noted that a rig has arrived at the H1 wellhead and begun drilling in preparation for a four well programme. Soco shares dropped by 4.9p to 326.7p.

Housebuilder Bovis Homes (BVS) completed 944 homes during the six months ended 30th June 2012, up from 810 homes in 2011's comparable period, with average sales prices up 1% to 164,400 pounds. The business also improved its gross margin from 20.1% to 21%, which benefited from a 3.9 million pound profit on the sale of land. The group bought 1,835 plots in the period and added that it would use its net cash of 23 million pounds, as at 30th June, to accelerate investment. The shares declined by 9.7p to 465.3p.

Shares in Michael Page (MPI) sank by 13.7p to 350.9p as the Eurozone crisis resulted in gross profits in its Europe, Middle East and Africa sector, which accounted for 42% of total gross profits, falling by 6.6% year-on-year in its second quarter. The UK market, which represented 23% of profits, also suffered, particularly in the banking sector, leading to a 9.2% decline in gross profits. Meanwhile, the recruitment agency opened new offices in Cape Town, South Africa, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

As it looks to focus on its core products, Cobham (COB) has sold its emergency locator beacon business for a consideration of 73 million dollars (47.2 million pounds) in cash, as well as some of its small European operations for a nominal sum. The news follows on from the sale of its Analytic Solutions business in November 2011 and the defence group said that its divestment of non-core business is now largely complete. The disposal is expected to be 2% earnings dilutive in both the 2012 and 2013 financial years. The shares crept down by 1p to 234.3p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

JJB Sports (JJB) shares dived by 2.6p, or 26.4% to 7.25p as the troubled sports retailer conceded that its trading performance had deteriorated further since the start of April, with like-for-like sales for the 22 weeks to 1st of July falling by 8%. This was exacerbated more so in May and June as the sale of replica football kits - which were expected to peak round the beginning of the European Championships - did not materialise to the extent anticipated. This tied in with the poor early summer weather which adversely impacted the sales of seasonal products. Click here to read last week's article 'The Next Shop for the Chop?' written by ShareCrazy.com analyst Aaron Padgham, who predicts JJB will be the high-street brand to go under.

JJB closed 95 stores as part of a major restructuring programme in 2011

RAM Active Media (RAM) has been awarded a contract with property owner CEPF Chariot S.a.r.l to source and install a large format landscape video screen within the main central square of The Stratford Centre. The media communications business will also be responsible for the management of broadcasting advertising sales, scheduling and content for a five year period. The firm noted the installation of the screen is set to go ahead before the start of the London Olympic Games and thus the contract will be immediately revenue enhancing. The company's shares climbed 0.075p to 1p.

UK defence contractor Manroy (MAN) was another AIM company to unveil a contract win, announcing it has secured a new 4.1 million pound weapons deal with an existing export customer. Delivery of the heavy machine gun and ancillary equipment order will commence approximately three months after the award of the requisite export licence from the UK government. As a result of this deal, Manroy has now won over 6.6 million pounds of new contracts since the start of 2012 in addition to 6.6 million pounds worth of deals from the US Department of Defence to Manroy USA in April. Manroy shares rose by 3p to 73.5p.

Shares in Lighthouse Group (LGT) slumped by 1.75p to 3.125p as the independent financial advisory firm requested shareholder approval for the cancellation of admission of its shares from AIM. "For some time the conventional advantages of being listed on AIM have not applied to the company" commented chairman David Hickey. A shareholder vote will be completed at a general meeting at the end of July, with 75% or more of the votes needed in favour for the cancellation to take place.

Natural sweeteners manufacturer PureCircle (PURE) conceded that despite sales in the second half of the year to June being double that on the first half, at 30 million dollars, revenues will still come in below management's expectations. This is primarily due to the delay in the commencement of a number of contracts which will now be realised in the year to June 2013. The group noted however that overall Stevia volumes had increased by more than 20% year-on-year and that with margins maintained at the level achieved in the first half, losses will have narrowed. PureCircle shares closed 4p lower at 144p.

EMED Mining (EMED) will purchase certain land plots covering the tailings dam from Rumbo 5-Cero, an area adjoining the Rio Tinto copper mine in Spain, for 10 million euros. The acquisition of the land is required in order to restart production at the mine and satisfies nearly all of the project's needs for tailings deposition from proposed operations. The two parties intends to enter a 50/50 joint venture, of EMED will be the operator, to test and potentially exploit some tailings and waste dumps. EMED shares rose 0.5p to 11.75p.

* EMED Mining is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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