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Thursday, January 31, 2013

A Bullish Run on Precious Metals! (New Blog Posting)

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 Post name :A Bullish Run on Precious Metals!
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 The latest quantitative easing by the Fed saw a spike in gold prices, but it was brief and was quick more.
 Posted Date: 2/1/2013 11:34:38 AM
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Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Royal Dutch Shell, Mitchells & Butlers & Zoo Digital


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 31st January 2013


The Markets

The British banking system looks set to face a fresh set of compensation claims, this time relating to the mis-selling of complex interest rate hedging products sold to small businesses. This adds to a string of banking scandals including the mis-selling of Payment Protection Insurance, rigged global benchmark rates and breaches of anti-money laundering rules. The Financial Services Authority said that 90% of the 173 interest-rate swaps it investigated did not comply with all of the regulatory requirements. Anthony Browne, Chief Executive of the British Bankers' Association, said, "The announcement today will give clarity to businesses and will enable the banks to put in place the steps needed to resolve each case for customers".

In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is optimistic that she could help to clinch a deal on the EU's long-term budget ahead of a summit next week in Brussels. Leaders failed to reach an agreement at the last summit back in November, but Merkel is more positive now and commented, "I am very optimistic that on the question of the long-term EU budget, we will be successful, that we will get an agreement".

Staying in Europe, German sales fell by 4.7% in December year-on-year in the biggest drop since May 2009. In addition, consumer sales in France slipped by 0.1%. The dip in Germany was blamed on weak consumer confidence as uncertainty around the economy continues. However, there is more positivity surrounding 2013 amongst analysts. Gerd Hassel, Economist at BHF Bank AG IN Frankfurt, said, "December data is a setback, but confidence has improved since then and declining uncertainty about the debt crisis is feeding into consumer sentiment."

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 20.39 points at 13,890.03 and the Nasdaq fell by 4.29 points to 2,734.42.

In London the FTSE 100 decreased by 21.18 points to 6,301.93; the FTSE 250 finished 23.63 points down at 13,022.91; the FTSE All-Share fell by 10.43 points to 3,298.13; and the FTSE AIM Index slipped by 1.70 points to 731.40.

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Broker Notes

Seymour Pierce retained its "sell" recommendation on baby goods retailer Mothercare (MTC) with a target price of 200p. The broker noted recent announcements made by the firm and believes that they highlight the "mammoth" task the group has in front of it. Seymour Pierce remains understandably cautious over the overhaul in management and by the fact that its Australian business has gone into administration. However, the underlying rationale that underpins the broker's "sell" stance is that it believes the store will struggle to compete in an ever increasingly crowded market place, with players such as Tesco launching its own baby clothing range. The shares were down by 14p at 312p.

Canaccord Genuity reiterated its "buy" stance on Heritage Oil (HOIL) but lowered its target price to 380p. The broker is convinced that the group has the ability to develop the reserves at its newly acquired project in Niger after an impressive capital markets day. Cannacord is also excited about the firm's plans to increase production from 35-40,000 bopd to 50-60,000 bopd within the next year, driven by new drilling projects, as the firm expects to add one oil rig every six months up until six rigs are operational. The shares lost 4.8p to 199.2p.

Daniel Stewart maintained its "buy" recommendation on healthcare group BTG (BTG) with a target price of 430p. The broker noted that revenues for the full year ended 31st March 2013 are expected to be at the top end of its guidance of between 205 million pounds and 215 million pounds and is impressed with the operational progress the group has made in recent months. In addition, Daniel Stewart is also excited by the revenue opportunities attached to the recent EU and US label extensions which were granted to its prostate cancer-fighting Zytiga product. The shares climbed by 11.5p to 332p.

Blue-Chips

Pharmaceutical giants AstraZeneca (AZN) revealed a 15% drop in revenues to $27.97 billion (17.7 billion pounds) for 2012, primarily driven by a period of significant patent expiry and tough market conditions worldwide. The second largest drug maker in the UK also attributed the downturn in revenues to the disposals of its Astra Tech and Aptium businesses. Worryingly, the company expects this trend in revenue decline to continue and has forecast a mid-to-high single digit percentage decline in revenue for 2013 as well as a slump in profits amid increased competition from lower-priced generic medicines. The shares dropped by 99.5p to 3,053p.

Annual profits at Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) fell by 5.6% to $27 billion (17 billion pounds) despite an increase in fourth quarter profits for Europe's largest oil company. In the company's "upstream" exploration and production business, profits fell 1by 4% to $4.4 billion (2.8 billion pounds) despite a 3% increase in oil and gas production in a performance significantly under the 10% year-on-year rise in profits forecast by Deutche Bank. Shell also pointed to lower prices for its synthetic crude oil as explanation for the slump, in particular the 19% dip in revenues came from from its Canadian synthetic crude oil. The shares decreased by 64.5p to 2,241p.

TV giants British Sky Broadcasting Group (BSY) posted a 5% increase in revenues to 3.53 billion pounds for the six months ended 31st December 2012, coupled with an 8% increase in profits to 647 million pounds. BSkyB added 88,000 net new customers to its services in the final 3 months of 2012, a figure significantly above analysts' forecasts of 58,000, while weekly on-demand downloads increased by 150%. Earlier in the week Goldman Sachs issued a "strong buy" recommendation on the shares with a target price of 1,040p. The shares gained 7.5p to 817.5p.

Mid Caps

British bingo hall and casino firm Rank Group (RNK) reported a 4% fall in pre-tax profits to 31.3 million pounds for the six months ended 31st December despite a 5% increase in revenues. The company blamed marketing layouts for a poor performance from its online gambling arm Blue Square Bet and higher operating costs for the underperformance from its bingo halls. The group also issued a profits warning, claiming that the recent heavy snow resulted in a substantial drop in customer visits to its venues and estimates this will translate into a 3 million pounds reduction in year-on-year revenue for 2013. The shares lost 2.5p to 150.4p.

Pub operator Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) announced that like-for-like sales were down by 0.3% for the 17 weeks ended 26th January despite an improved festive period. The main catalyst for this downturn in performance was the challenging conditions thrust upon the company due to the heavy snow, with many customers opting to stay at home. This news comes after broker Panmure Gordon retained its "sell" stance on the firm with a 225p target price. The shares were up by by 37.7p at 333.7p.

UK food producer Cranswick (CWK) revealed that total sales were up by 8% for the three months ended 30th January, an increase which was driven by a positive effect from the acquisition of Kingston Food, acquired on 29th June last year. In more positive news, the group confirmed that it has won a 30 million pounds deal to become Asda's main fresh pork supplier and has bought a site in Hull to meet this new surge in demand. The shares increased by 22p to 960p.

Small Caps & AIM

Cloud based software group Zoo Digital (ZOO) revealed that it has seen a significant contraction in its blue-ray production services pipeline due to the postponement of a large order for DVD's and Blue-ray titles. Subsequently ZOO now expects to report revenues in the region of $10.6 to 11 million dollars (6.7-7 million pounds), which falls short of expectations. In reaction, the firm has reduced staff to align costs with revenues, is currently working to diversify its revenue streams and is focusing on the licensing of workflow and productivity software. The shares plummeted by 3.75p to 11.75p.

Diagnostic company Mediwatch (MDW) revealed a 5% decline in sales to 10.1 million pounds and a 42% plummet in pre-tax profits to 179,000 pounds for the year ending 31st October. The drop in revenues has come despite the group's expansion into new territories such as Western America, Canada and Asia. Furthermore, Management stressed that the company remains on the lookout for "appropriate" acquisitions as a means to returning it to growth in the short-term. The shares fell by 0.22p to 2.4p.

Virgin Australia has moved a step closer to taking control of airline Skywest* (SKYW) after receiving approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). The approval relates to a 98 million dollar (62 million pounds) bid for Skywest that was submitted back in October, equating at current prices to 22.5 cents (14.2p per share) a share. Virgin would like to complete the acquisition as it is consistent with its strategy of expanding regionally in Australia, enhancing its presence in the growing fly-in, fly-out market for miners in the west of the country. The shares inched up by 0.8p to 28.8p.

Servoca (SVCA), the outsourcing firm, reported a 11% decline in revenues to 42.5 million pounds, as gross profits fell by 10% to 12 million pounds for the year ended 30th September 2012. Divisionally, revenues from the group's healthcare sector fell by over 6 million pounds due to a severe cut back in spending from the NHS. ON a brighter note Servoca said that its education recruitment business is set for a substantial improvement in profitability as a result of the foundations it has established this year. The shares lost 0.29p to 3.33p.

Enegi Oil (ENEG) has agreed to farm out 50% of Block 3/23 in the UK North Sea to Azimuth, the oil and gas exploration firm. The block in question was only acquired by Enegi 3 months ago and contains the Malvolio prospect and other smaller potential opportunities. In return for the 50% interest in the block Azimuth will provide all the geological, geophysical and reservoir work to assess the hydrocarbon potential of the area within the first 12 months of the agreement. The shares jumped by 0.62p to 11p.

Peru-based mineral exploration firm Mariana Resources (MARL) has been granted a 90 day extension to assess the potential of the Condor de porphyry gold-silver-copper project in Peru. The extension could be a pre-cursor to a potential earn-in deal with Condor Resources that could see Mariana eventually acquire 51% of the project. Separately, the firm announced that it is undergoing a strategic review of its projects in the Santa Cruz region of Argentina with a view to asset sales or joint-ventures. The shares increased by 0.25p to 4.5p.

* Skywest is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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| 01.31.13 | The vindication of Jon Corzine?

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FierceFinance

January 31, 2013
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Today's Top Stories
1. The new king of Wall Street?
2. Judge holds the key in massive FHFA litigation
3. Cayman Islands aims to enhance hedge fund transparency
4. Deals, including LBOs, may come back in 2013
5. The vindication of Jon Corzine?

Also Noted: Spotlight On... Funds that saw Apple's big drop coming
Evercore beats estimates; New way to monitor risk; and much more...

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1. Rogue algos and straying servers need human babysitters
2. Follow the money: Transform your IT supply chain
3. Dark pool volume down, shares up in 2012


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Today's Top News

1. The new king of Wall Street?

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

When people talk about the most influential bankers on Wall Street, they usually talk about the CEOs of the premiere companies, whether broker-dealers, hedge funds or private equity funds. They're never talking about the head of a middle-market broker dealer.

But Jefferies' Richard Handler has changed that.

For the second time in three years, he has emerged as the top paid CEO in the industry. For work rendered in 2012, the Jefferies board gave Handler $45.2 million in pay, according to the SEC's calculation of compensation. This means he's better paid than even the likes of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein.

The 2012 package breaks down to $1 million in salary, $5 million in cash and $39 million in restricted stock grants that will vest over three years. In 2010, Handler took home a pay package worth $47 million.

So the big question is, did he deserve it? The board certainly thinks so.

Handler is credited with saving his company from a short attack in the wake of charges from a small credit rating company that it was overexposed to European debt, not unlike MFGlobal. Handler also deserves credit for engineering a sale of the company to Leucadia, which will leave him as the top executive of the combined company. What's more, Jefferies shares have been kind to shareholders, having risen more than 150 percent since he took the helm in 2001.

Marketwatch opines that, "Wall Street pay isn't always about scale or performance. It's about how much shareholders will complain. Jefferies' stock rally, the premium and the financial boost of the Leucadia means that any criticism is coming from those who aren't in on the game."

For more:
- here's the commentary

Related articles:
Jefferies CEO fights for personal wealth
 

Read more about: Jefferies
back to top



2. Judge holds the key in massive FHFA litigation

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Is there any hope for a quick end to the massive litigation brought by the FHFA, the overseer of the big housing GSEs, against big banks over mortgage misrepresentation issues?

If so, the best chance may rest with U.S. District Judge Denise Cote, 66, who was appointed to the federal bench in 1994 and "is best-known for presiding over the WorldCom securities fraud case nearly a decade ago. She is known as a no-nonsense judge who stresses efficiency in large, complex cases," according to Reuters.

The bulk of the FHFA cases remain before her, and she has made clear that she wants a settlement. But that hasn't happened so far, and it might never happen.

That said, there's plenty of time before the first trial gets underway. It's scheduled for next January.

All in all, it does not look as though the banks will be successful in getting these cases dismissed, according to the piece: "Cote's rulings at times have frustrated the banks, such as orders limiting discovery by the defendants into only the side of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's businesses that purchased the securities. Also, in December, the judge ruled that the FHFA could attempt to prove its case about whether the mortgages in question conformed to proper lending standards by using just a sample of the underlying loans in the securities, rather than having to review each of the 1.1 million total loans in the lawsuits."

The banks have already appealed one of the judge's most important decisions to the appellate level; that decision allowed a suit against UBS to proceed. "The UBS lawsuit is a test case, and the future of all the lawsuits could rest on the appeals court's ultimate decision," said the article.

For more:
- here's the article

Read more about: mortgages
back to top



3. Cayman Islands aims to enhance hedge fund transparency

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

The global push for more transparency in financial services has reached the small tax-advantaged havens that hedge funds and other investment vehicles depend on for favorable tax treatment.

The Cayman Islands has joined Jersey, the Isle of Man, the Bahamas and others in seeking greater transparency when it comes to hedge funds.

The Financial Times notes that, "The British overseas territory, which wants to shed its reputation for clandestine financial activity, is introducing sweeping reforms that will make public the names of thousands of previously hidden companies and their directors…the islands' powerful monetary authority, CIMA, has outlined plans to create a public database of funds domiciled on the island for the first time. The database will also list funds' directors, pending an ongoing consultation process due to close in mid-March. CIMA, which did not respond to a request for comment, also plans to require directors to undergo a vetting process to ensure they are qualified to act as fiduciaries for investors."

The FT uncovered some dubious practices recently regarding directors of hedge fund boards. It seems some were sitting on the boards of hundreds of funds, making it impossible to provide real oversight. One person was listed on the board of 567 entities.

You might think hedge funds and other alternative vehicles will simply switch domiciles, but that's not likely to happen, given that big U.S. limited partners in general are behind the move for more transparency, which has already had a profound effect on the compliance and administrative aspects of the hedge fund industry.

For more:
- here's the article

Read more about: Transparency
back to top



4. Deals, including LBOs, may come back in 2013

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

The conventional wisdom early last year was that a pick-up in merger activity was just around the corner. The economy seemed poised to rise, companies had built up cash stockpiles and lending for deals seemed to be making a comeback.

The big surge never fully materialized, but optimism still reigns.

One indication comes from Morningstar, which makes the case for deal arbitrage as a strategy in 2013. The refrain is somewhat familiar: "We believe banks have an increased appetite for funding LBOs...the corporate bond market is open and active, making it easier to finance large-scale acquisitions, particularly as companies continue to stockpile cash. Higher market valuations have supported equity raises as well, so there is little question that capital is available for M&A, but CEOs continue to delay pulling the trigger." 

One area that seems ripe for more deals is LBOs. Banks have "repaired their balance sheets and need to expand net interest margins (which have been contracting). The high-yield market is wide open to new issuers and debt is cheap with all-in-yields near all time-lows. Additionally, private equity firms need to put money to work before capital commitment periods start to expire. With a strong market rally in the back half of 2012, we believe relative valuations have recovered enough that boards won't feel like they are selling too low, but still offer attractive internal rates of return to potential private equity sponsors."

So will 2013 be a year of numerous financial sponsor-driven deals? There will likely be more, but the mega deals, like the one Dell recently brokered, may remain scarce. The conditions aren't that good.

For more:
- here's the report
- here are the views of Steve Schwarzman



 

Read more about: LBOs, deals
back to top



5. The vindication of Jon Corzine?

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Against the odds, it looks like the MFGlobal scandal will provide, if not a happy ending, then at least a not terribly unhappy ending.

For Jon Corzine, the upshot is that he'll be able to escape pariah status.

DealBook notes that,  "Mr. Corzine, a former chief of Goldman Sachs, has started to regain his footing. He spent the summer on Long Island, traveled to France around the holidays and visited Central America for a humanitarian project involving children, setting up what he hopes will become a broader charitable effort. Mr. Corzine, 66, also spends time with his grandchildren and has office space in Midtown Manhattan, where he writes and trades with his own money."

He's no longer a pariah in part because the victims of the scandal have for the most part, quite improbably, been made whole, in many cases recovering the vast majority of the sum they lost. Vindication for Corzine also has arrived courtesy of a stunning recovery in the European sovereign debt that sunk the company in the first place.

"The European bonds at the center of a $6.3 billion bet by Mr. Corzine fully paid out when they matured in recent months. The large position in European sovereign debt in 2011 unnerved MF Global's investors and ratings agencies. Yet it is now clear that the bonds, which were sold to George Soros and other investors, were not by themselves to blame for felling MF Global. The firm also struggled after a one-time charge depressed its earnings."

In the end, I'd be surprised to see a single criminal indictment out of this mess. The urgency to prosecute has waned considerably. While no one will go to jail, the company still stands as an example of how poor controls can ruin a company.

For more:
- here's the article

Read more about: John Corzine, MFGlobal
back to top



Also Noted

SPOTLIGHT ON... Funds that saw Apple's big drop coming

Fifty-three of the 321 funds with more than 5 percent of their assets in Apple shares at the beginning of 2012 significantly cut back their stake in the technology company before its share price plummeted, according to data from Morningstar. One of the prescient winners was Tom Marsico, who told Reuters he sold his firm's entire stake in Apple "before things got really ugly." Lots of others have not been so lucky. Article

Company News: 
> Evercore beats estimates. Article
> UBS, Credit Suisse adjust on metals. Article
> KKR company to sell bonds. Article
> HSBC to clawback some bonuses. Article
Industry News:
> The next threat to the big rally. Article
> Gold gains on economic news. Article
> How overbought are bonds? Article
> Will Wall Street embrace the BlackBerry all over again? Article
> Retail investors not back just yet. Article
> Funds ponder Apple implosion. Article
> No tears for little banks. Article
Regulatory News:
> CFTC prodded on auditing. Article
> New way to monitor risk. Article
And Finally…Super Bowl teams rack up financial losses. Article


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Thursday 31 January 2013
QUOTE OF THE DAY

Don't worry about people stealing your ideas. If your ideas are any good, you'll have to ram them down people's throats
- J Howard Aiken


THIS MORNING IN LONDON

FTSE 100

6,285.59

-37.52   -0.59%

FTSE 250

13,007.84

-38.70   -0.30%

FTSE 350

3,358.20

-18.68   -0.55%



FTSE All Share

3,290.43

-18.13   -0.55%

AIM 100

3,257.53

-6.50   -0.20%

AIM All Share

731.80

-1.30   -0.18%


11:51 am

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AstraZeneca, Shell provide a drag on the Footsie

A host of FTSE 100 heavyweights disappointed with earnings reports on Thursday morning, as market sentiment was still fragile after yesterday's shock economic contraction in the States.

The world's largest economy shrank by 0.1% in the last three months of last year, a stark contrast to the 3.1% growth seen in the third quarter. Forecasts were for a 1.1% expansion.

"A weak reading for Q4 GDP in the US yesterday afternoon tempered demand for risk assets and capped gains in equity indices short term," said Matt Basi, a senior sales trader at CMC Markets.

Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee said last night in its January statement that it would keep rates unchanged and continue to purchase securities at a $85bn-a-month pace. The Fed said "with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace". Policy-makers also expect the jobless rate to "gradually decline" towards levels constant with its mandate.

The focus now turns to jobless claims and personal income data this afternoon in the US. Nevertheless, the big event of the week will be tomorrow's January jobs report given the disappointing growth figures for the fourth quarter.

FTSE 100: Big hitters disappoint

Pharmaceutical titan AstraZeneca dropped after reporting that full-year revenue fell 15% due to a loss of exclusivity on several brands. The company also said that it would not buy back any shares in 2013 "in order to maintain the flexibility to invest the business".

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell was lower after full-year profits slipped slightly as a result of oil price volatility. Analyst at Investec labelled the company's fourth quarter as a "substantial miss".

Consumer goods giant Diageo was higher after posting profits broadly in line with market expectations. While North American growth was weaker-than-expected and Europe saw continued weakness, this was offset by a strong performance in the Emerging Markets.

A third-quarter production report from Vedanta disappointed early on but shares had pulled into positive territory by lunchtime. The company said that oil and gas output rose 21% and mined metal and silver increased strongly.

Leading the risers was Kazakh copper-focused miner Kazakhmys was flat after saying it had hit production targets across all asset classes in 2012.

Broadcaster and broadband group BSkyB gained after beating profit forecasts in the first half, helped by a surge in customer numbers. The firm also hiked its dividend by a fifth.

Engineering firm Babcock edged higher after saying it has traded well in first half and is confident of meeting expectations for the full year.

Utilities group SSE rose after saying that it is on course to deliver increases in both adjusted profits and its dividend this year despite a slight fall in the number of customer accounts during the first nine months.

FTSE 250: Lonmin, M&B surge

Lonmin, the world's third largest platinum producer, jumped after posting quarterly production ahead of targets despite strikes that hit the South African mining sector last year.

Robust festive trading figures for pubs group Mitchells & Butlers saw shares advance this morning; the company reported a 1.0% increase in like-for-like sales in the 14 weeks to January 5th.

Sector peer Enterprise Inns suffered heavy falls after Numis downgraded its rating on the stock this morning.

FTSE 100 - Risers
Diageo (DGE) 1,888.50p +1.92%
CRH (CRH) 1,371.00p +1.86%
British Sky Broadcasting Group (BSY) 822.00p +1.48%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,636.00p +1.30%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 953.50p +1.17%
Pearson (PSON) 1,205.00p +1.09%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 2,170.00p +0.98%
Babcock International Group (BAB) 1,041.00p +0.87%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 1,174.00p +0.86%
ITV (ITV) 114.60p +0.79%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
AstraZeneca (AZN) 2,984.00p -5.34%
Evraz (EVR) 282.00p -3.16%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 338.90p -2.39%
Sage Group (SGE) 325.20p -1.93%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 2,264.50p -1.78%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,219.00p -1.53%
Barclays (BARC) 297.55p -1.47%
Prudential (PRU) 959.00p -1.44%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,328.50p -1.42%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 377.70p -1.41%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Lonmin (LMI) 345.60p +9.71%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 321.90p +8.75%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 516.00p +3.64%
BTG (BTG) 330.60p +3.15%
JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 754.50p +2.72%
Great Portland Estates (GPOR) 483.60p +2.28%
Supergroup (SGP) 604.50p +2.28%
Renishaw (RSW) 1,900.00p +2.15%
Barr (A.G.) (BAG) 537.00p +2.09%
ITE Group (ITE) 258.30p +1.89%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Enterprise Inns (ETI) 89.55p -9.27%
New World Resources A Shares (NWR) 277.80p -4.54%
Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) 207.60p -3.22%
3i Group (III) 265.30p -2.64%
Redrow (RDW) 187.20p -2.40%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 119.70p -2.37%
Investec (INVP) 459.10p -2.30%
Man Group (EMG) 87.85p -2.17%
Laird (LRD) 222.70p -2.11%
AZ Electronic Materials SA (DI) (AZEM) 372.20p -1.98%


WHAT THE BROKERS SAY
Amino Technologies: Northland Capital raises target price from 85p to 90p keeping a buy recommendation.

Carphone Warehouse: Morgan Stanley downgrades from equal-weight to underweight.

Click here for the rest of the broker recommendations

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