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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

UK to lose AAA rating and Osborne to lose his job, writes Tom Winnifrith in the ShareCrazy Morning Market View

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Wednesday 25 July 2012
QUOTE OF THE DAY

How little you know about the age you live in if you think that honey is sweeter than cash in hand
- Ovid


THIS MORNING IN LONDON

FTSE 100

5,513.60

14.37   0.26%

FTSE 250

10,864.72

-21.22   -0.19%

FTSE 350

2,926.78

5.94   0.20%



FTSE All Share

2,863.39

5.76   0.20%

AIM 100

2,982.71

11.34   0.38%

AIM All Share

663.89

0.62   0.09%


12:16 pm

Footsie rallies despite poor UK GDP

- UK deeper in recession
- ARM jumps after beating expectations
- Footsie bulls into the blue

The Footsie pulled into positive territory by Wednesday lunchtime in spite of some miserable economic growth data in the UK.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) figures released by the Office for National Statistics today showed the British economy contracted by 0.7% in the three months to the end of June, following on from a 0.3% fall in the first quarter and a 0.4% decline in the fourth quarter of 2011. Economists had pencilled in decline in GDP of just 0.2%.

"While today's numbers represent a blow to the UK's recovery hopes, the economy still seems likely to exit recession in Q3, driven by an unwind of the Jubilee effect and more buoyant construction activity," said analysts at Barclays Capital.

Markets are also focusing again today on the Eurozone after Reuters reported last night that three European Union officials believe that Greece will have to restructure its debt yet again, as it struggles to make debt repayments.

Meanwhile, following Moody's ratings outlook cut for AAA-rated sovereigns Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg yesterday, the ratings agency also reduced its outlook for the AAA rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) from 'stable' to 'negative'.

The agency said that a deterioration in the creditworthiness of the participating euro area member states are among the risks that would negatively affect the creditworthiness of the EFSF, the temporary European bailout fund.

FTSE 100: ARM lifts the Footsie higher

Cambridge-based computer chip designer ARM Holdings beat market expectations with its second-quarter results, as demand for its intellectual property continues to make it a British technology success story. Shares were nearly 6% higher.

Outsourcing behemoth Capita advanced after saying it is confident of growing revenue this year and beyond as it takes advantage of a buoyant outsourcing market in the UK public sector. Revenue in the first half was up 15%.

Telecoms titan BT dropped after saying that while underlying earnings grew in the first quarter, its corporate customer-focused Global Services unit having a tough time of it in Europe and London's financial district.

Shares in speciality chemicals group Johnson Matthey slipped after the firm reported weakness in its precious metals division as a result of lower commodity prices.

Tullow Oil dropped despite hailing an "excellent" first half. Revenues grew by 10% on the back of increased sales volumes, average production and sustained high oil prices. Pre-tax profits surged by 48% but growth was held back by increased exploration write-offs and higher costs.

Cigarette giant British American Tobacco disappointed after saying that currency headwinds in key markets saw reported revenues hold steady in the first half.

Utilities group SSE was a heavy faller after going ex-dividend; from today onwards, investors will not have the right to the group's latest dividend payment.

FTSE 250: Petropavlovsk and Renishaw lead the risers

Russian gold miner Petropavlovsk surged after maintaining its production targets for the full year and reported progress in its exploration work. Attributable production across its five mines for the second quarter was 158,300 ounces, a 10% rise on the same period of 2011.

Precision tool maker Renishaw jumped after posting a 7% increase in annual pre-tax profit, boosted by strong demand across all its markets for its precision measuring products.

Shares in Drax, which converts coal and biomass to energy, plunged after the government announced that it has decided to create support levels for electricity generated from sustainable biomass at existing fossil fuelled power stations on an individual generating unit by unit basis, and not, as previously proposed, on a power station wide basis.


FTSE 100 - Risers
ARM Holdings (ARM) 514.50p +6.13%
Capita (CPI) 698.50p +3.10%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 202.30p +2.90%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 110.00p +2.52%
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. (ENRC) 371.90p +2.28%
Reed Elsevier (REL) 517.50p +2.27%
Barclays (BARC) 153.95p +2.22%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 850.00p +2.10%
Kingfisher (KGF) 259.20p +2.01%
Polymetal International (POLY) 810.50p +1.95%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
SSE (SSE) 1,290.00p -5.43%
BT Group (BT.A) 207.30p -4.65%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 1,308.00p -4.53%
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) 2,047.00p -3.26%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 828.00p -1.60%
Imperial Tobacco Group (IMT) 2,421.00p -1.14%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 1,508.00p -1.05%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,430.50p -1.04%
Tate & Lyle (TATE) 641.00p -0.93%
Aggreko (AGK) 1,942.00p -0.87%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Renishaw (RSW) 1,400.00p +10.24%
Petropavlovsk (POG) 413.00p +8.43%
FirstGroup (FGP) 216.80p +5.55%
Man Group (EMG) 75.95p +5.49%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 75.50p +5.30%
easyJet (EZJ) 549.00p +3.39%
Afren (AFR) 124.50p +3.32%
Bodycote (BOY) 333.00p +3.22%
Senior (SNR) 187.20p +2.86%
Lancashire Holdings (LRE) 779.50p +2.84%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Drax Group (DRX) 429.10p -17.24%
Cookson Group (CKSN) 555.50p -6.80%
COLT Group SA (COLT) 104.60p -5.34%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 751.50p -4.81%
Atkins (WS) (ATK) 721.50p -3.93%
Bwin.party Digital Entertainment (BPTY) 108.20p -3.74%
Galliford Try (GFRD) 600.00p -3.61%
Oxford Instruments (OXIG) 1,211.00p -3.43%
Savills (SVS) 360.80p -3.35%
Fenner (FENR) 332.30p -2.95%


ON THE SHARECRAZY BLOG

UK to lose AAA rating and Osborne to lose his job?

Today's UK GDP numbers are disastrous for George Osborne. Folks do not expect to like Tory chancellors (except perhaps Ken Clarke in his fat, cigar smoking and whisky drinking pomp) but they expect them to be competent. Osborne is now going to be the chancellor who sees the UK lose its AAA rating and it is going to happen soon.

That we still have this rating is a joke. Somehow Osborne has managed to persuade us all that he is curbing Government spending (he is not it is rising in actual terms, in real terms and per head of population) and that he is tackling the deficit (he is not) and so getting national debt under control (he is not). His claims were based on assumptions for growth which were, shall we say, optimistic. And here I quote John Redwood.

Click here to view the rest of the article


FREE SHARE TIP OF THE DAY

Oil Special

BP (BP.) Those who are not that convinced of the latest setback for equity markets may be happy to look at the present hourly chart configuration of BP given the way that the recent recovery for the stock still appears to be intact. Indeed, while there is no end of day close back below the black 200 period moving average / late June price channel floor at 427p the upside here should be towards a retest of the 445p plus intraday resistance of last week by the first week of August.

Click here to view the rest of the article


WHAT THE BROKERS SAY
CareTech: Canaccord Genuity ups target from 166p to 194p, buy rating kept.

Savills: UBS downgrades to neutral.

Click here for the rest of the broker recommendations

THE LATEST ON THE CRAZY BOARD

The top 5 hot company threads on the Bulletin Board:

Oracle Coalfields

Norseman Gold

3 Legs Resources

Falkland Oil & Gas

Running trading thread

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BOOK OF THE WEEK

Hedge Fund Market Wizards: How Winning Traders Win

By Jack D. Schwager

A book review by James Faulkner of WatsHot.com

As of April 2012 the hedge fund industry reached a record high of $2.13 trillion total assets under management, having surpassed the previous high of $1.93 trillion in 2008 before the onset of the financial crisis. While the industry remains a relatively small component of the financial sector at large (it accounted for just 1.1% of the total funds and assets held by financial institutions as of 2009), it is often said to attract the creme de la creme of industry talent, and is home to the money of the some of the richest people on the planet.

Click here to view the rest of the article

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ShareCrazy Poll
Which will be the first country to leave the Euro ?

Germany
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
None will leave

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