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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Genus, Imperial Tobacco and Carpetright


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 24th July 2012

The Markets

European markets were pushed lower after the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras warned that the country's recession will be worse than previously anticipated. Samaras now expects the economy to contract by 7% in 2012, compared to prior forecast of 5%. Meanwhile, the Germans hit back against Moody's, following the rating agency downgrading its stance on the AAA rated European powerhouse from "stable" to "negative". The German finance ministry said that it will "defend its 'safe haven' status" and "maintain its anchor role in the eurozone".

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 88.59 points at 12,632.87 and the Nasdaq was down by 7.21 points at 2,582.72.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 34.64 points to 5,499.23; the FTSE 250 finished 10.97 points behind at 10,885.94; the FTSE All-Share lost 9.88 points to 2,863.49; and the FTSE AIM Index slid by 4.75 points to 663.75.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon lowered its stance on Genus (GNS) from "hold" to "sell", with a reduced target price of 1,190p from 1,275p. The broker noted that, on its forecasts, the animal breeding specialist's shares trade on a prospective earnings multiple of 26.3 times. Panmure warned that feed costs are likely to increase significantly in the short-term as a result of the drought in the US, while pork and milk prices have fallen and trading is likely to remain difficult for the next three quarters. Shares in Genus inched down by 12p to 1,337p.

WH Ireland reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Tribal Group (TRB) with a 115p target price. The broker noted that the education software group enjoyed strong trading momentum and expects to hear news of overseas expansion, particularly in Australia and New Zealand. WH Ireland pointed to a healthy order book of 193 million pounds, as at 30th April, and forecasted full year pre-tax profits of 10 million pounds. The shares slipped by 0.75p to 84.5p.

Canaccord Genuity maintained its "buy" rating for Iomart Group (IOM) with a target price of 175p. The cloud computing services provider has secured a 20 million pound credit facility, which the broker noted is twice as large as its previous facility. Canaccord approves of the firm's planned acquisition strategy, noting its success in the past, and believes it will help accelerate growth. As the firm's capacity fills, the broker forecasts EBITDA margins to improve by between 200 and 300 basis points per annum over the next three years. Iomart shares were unchanged at 145.5p.

Shore Capital retained its "buy" recommendation for SABMiller (SAB), ahead of Thursday's first quarter update, expecting the brewer to report strong volumes growth in the emerging markets of Latin America, Asia Pacific and Africa. However, the broker believes trading in Europe and North America will weaken, forecasting a decline in volume of 2% in both regions. Shore will also be looking for news on the integration and development of the group's Foster's acquisition, noting that volumes were down 4% in the prior financial year. The shares declined by 13p to 2,664.5p.

Blue-Chips

Croda International (CRDA) reported sales growth of 2.4% for the six months ended 30th June 2012 to 572.9 million pounds, with pre-tax profits up by 6.3% to 132.6 million pounds. The chemicals company attributed the performance to the introduction of new higher margin products, with strong demand in the US offsetting a subdued European performance. The firm also reduced its net debt position to 208 million pounds, from 253.3 million pounds at the end of June 2011. The shares climbed by 135p to 2,364p.

Oil and gas services provider Petrofac (PFC) has secured two engineering, procurement and construction contracts from Petro Rabigh, as part of the Saudi Arabian hydrocarbon explorer's phase II expansion project. The contracts are scheduled to begin within 36 months and will be delivered from Petrofac's existing facilities in the country. The shares descended by 11p to 1,398p.

Imperial Tobacco Group (IMT) announced that it was trading in-line with expectations, with net revenues rising 3% year-on-year, for the nine months ended 30th June 2012. This was achieved through price increases, compensating for a 3% decline in stick equivalent sales volumes. Growth was driven by the firm's core brands, which enjoyed 13% revenue growth and a 6% rise in volumes. The company continued its share buyback scheme, noting that it had returned 122 million pounds to investors since May 2012. Imperial Tobacco shares stayed flat at 2,449p.

Mid-Caps

Shares in PZ Cussons (PZC) tumbled by 16.7p to 305p after it reported a 15.2% fall in profits for the year ended 31st May 2012, to 92.3 million pounds, despite revenues rising 4.7% to 858.9 million pounds. The Imperial Leather owner attributed the poor performance on increased raw material costs as well as difficult trading conditions in Australia and Nigeria. In the UK, the company noted a robust performance, despite intense competition, while its baby range continued to gain momentum in Indonesia.

Man Group (EMG) saw funds under management fall by 5.7 billion dollars (3.7 billion pounds) to 52.7 billion dollars (34.0 billion pounds) over the six months ended 30th June, primarily the result of net fund withdrawals, while the value of invested funds remained broadly flat. However, investors were more excited to hear that the company planned to issue a total dividend for the year of 22 cents (14.1p) representing a 20.4% yield on Monday's closing price. The shares jumped by 2.85p to 72p.

Home credit provider Provident Financial (PFG) announced pre-tax profits of 72.9 million pounds for the six months ended 30th June, up 17% on 2011's comparable period, driven by a 60% rise in profits from its Vanquis Bank division to 28.2 million pounds. The group noted that it is fully funded up to 2015 and that it had reduced its gearing from 3.3 times to 3.1 times. In light of the performance, the company increased its interim dividend by 7.9% to 28.8p. Provident Financial shares soared by 124p to 1,297p.

Carpetright (CPR) suffered a 2.1% decline in UK sales during the 12 weeks ended 21st July, reflecting four store closures, while like-for-like sales rose by 1.7%. The group added that it improved its gross margins over the period and expects full year margins to be between 200 and 250 basis point higher than in 2012. However, the flooring specialist fared considerably worse in the rest of Europe, where total sales fell 13.6%, with the result exacerbated by the weakening of the Euro. The shares inched down by 2.5p to 612.5p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

As a result of the flooding in Thailand disrupting the production of hard disk drives, Pace (PIC) suffered a 27.2% fall in pre-tax profits for the six months ended 30th June to 21.4 million dollars (13.8 million pounds). The set top box manufacturer continued its cost cutting programme, noting that it had reduced annual expenses by 20.9 million dollars (13.5 million pounds) in the first half. The group also lowered its net debt position by 24.4% to 243.3 million dollars (156.8 million pounds). The shares flew up 19.5p to 134p.

Titan Europe (TSW) warned that trading conditions in China remained poor, while sales in Italy were heavily impacted by the earthquake in May 2012. In order to prevent accumulating dead stock in China, the group has been forced to re-export products originally manufactured in Europe. Combined with the weakening of the Euro against the sterling, the wheel and undercarriage manufacturer does not expect to meet market expectations. Titan Europe shares crashed by 13.13p to 110p.

Shares in VPhase (VPHA) collapsed by 0.15p to 0.55p after it issued a profit warning, stating that it will not be able to achieve the previously expected 11-fold year-on-year growth in sales as a number of contract negotiations have taken longer to conclude that originally hoped. The voltage optimisation technology developer reported first half, ended 30th June 2012, turnover growth of 326% to 657,000 pounds, with an order book for August of 200,000 pounds. The firm added that it retained cash reserves of 1.35 million pounds as at 30th June.

Connemara Mining Company (CON) announced "encouraging" results from the airborne electromagnetic survey of its licence block in the Wicklow and Wexford area of Ireland, highly indicative of gold mineralisation. The metal explorer noted that one of the splays coincided with previously discovered high grade gold results at Carnew and Clohamon. The group now plans to commence a ground based exploration programme in the next few months. The shares gained 0.625p to 11.375p.

Wealth management adviser Lighthouse Group (LGT) looked to quash rumours that management plans to squeeze out investors following the proposed delisting from AIM, originally announced on 9th July 2012. The firm stated that it will set up a matched bargain system through regulated stockbrokers so that shareholders will be able to continue trading. The group also reiterated its reasons for wanting to delist, claiming that there was heavy negative sentiment against financial advisory firms and that it does not expect it will need to raise additional funds in the medium term. Shares in Lighthouse toppled 0.25p to 3p.

Finsbury Food Group (FIF) reported revenues of 207 million pounds for the year ended 30th June 2012, up 9.4% on last year's performance, although noting that growth slowed in the second half of the year following the anniversary of its 2011 product launches. The baker said that sales from its bread and free form division were driven by its gluten free and Vogel brand. The shares rose by 1p to 29p.

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