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Thursday, July 19, 2012

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Lloyds, Afren and JJB Sports


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 19th July 2012

The Markets

UK retail sales volumes climbed by 0.1% in June from May and were 1.5% higher than in June 2011 the Office for National Statistics reported. Reduced clothing and footwear prices encouraged consumers to part with their money. Sales by value however slipped by 0.5%, a direct consequence of these lower prices. It is widely believed that many retailers are now pinning their hopes on the Olympic Games to provide a further sales boost over the summer period. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said the UK government should slow the pace of its budget cuts next year if growth does not recover. The fund believes that spending cuts and tax rises have lowered UK growth by as much as 2.5% over the past two years. In addition, it recommends further monetary stimulus via further quantitative easing and a cut in interest rates.

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 25.51 points at 12,934.21 and the Nasdaq was up by 27.43 points at 2,653.30.

In London the FTSE 100 gained 28.42 points to 5,714.19; the FTSE 250 finished 156.82 points ahead at 11,242.50; the FTSE All-Share rose by 18.48 points to 2,965.63; and the FTSE AIM Index climbed by 1.35 points to 686.06.

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Broker Notes

N+1 Brewin maintained its "buy" recommendation for Fenner (FENR) with a 450p target price. The reinforced polymer manufacturer is looking to increase its product offering from just supply to full life cycle management, and the broker noted good success already in Australia and South America. Brewin added that the firm is also aggressively targeting new markets such as Russia, the Middle East and Africa. However, the broker raised some concern over uncertainties in the US coal market, which it said could hold the share price back in the short-term. Fenner shares jumped by 20.1p to 357.6p.

Shore Capital retained its "sell" stance on Capita (CPI) believing that the government support services firm continued to struggle in the first half of the financial year. The broker expects like-for-like revenues to have declined as the result of reduced client demand and increased competition. Shore did raise some positives, noting that the firm secured a number of new contracts, including for Civil Service IT training and Army recruitment, and believes the group's order wins approached 1.5 billion pounds during the period. The shares inched up by 5.5p to 691.5p.

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Filtronic (FTC) with a 39p target price. The broker expects the electrical components manufacturer to report revenues of 26 million pounds for the year ended 31st May 2012, up from 15.5 million pounds in 2011, boosted by a strong contribution from its Qualcomm business. Panmure noted increasing demand for both the broadband and wireless services and improved revenue visibility. The shares gained 0.5p to 33.5p.

Blue-Chips

Kingfisher (KGF) reported sales growth of 3.7% for the 10 weeks ended 7th July 2012, with strong performances from the UK and Ireland compensating for a 0.6% decline in France. The DIY specialist said that the heavy rain impacted sales of outdoor and seasonal products, but that consumers switching focus to indoor projects helped compensate. Elsewhere, revenues from Russia soared by 48.5%, while those in China fell by 4.7% due to the closure of one of its stores. The shares slipped by 3.6p to 271.6p.

Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) will sell 632 branches to Co-operative Group for 750 million pounds, including an initial consideration of 350 million pounds. As part of the transaction, 4.8 million of the bank's customers will be transferred to the Co-op, increasing its current account market share to 7%. The deal was mandated by the EU and comes at a significant discount to the previously rumoured deal value of 1.5 billion pounds. The group expects the loss on disposal will be offset by lower capital requirements. Shares in Lloyds advanced by 0.39p to 30.17p.

Mid-Caps

Shares in Afren (AFR) swelled by 9.2p to 128.1p after the oil explorer announced that its Simrit-2 exploration well, in Kurdistan, struck a new oil reserve with a net pay of 51 metres after drilling an additional 100 metres, to a total depth of 3,800 metres. The find brings the wells total net oil pay to 460 metres, with no water contact. The firm began a well test programme in June with plans to conduct 12 drill stem tests. So far the group has completed three tests, yielding a flow rate of 13,584 barrels of oil per day.

Halfords Group (HFD) reported a 5.2% fall in revenues for the 13 weeks ended 29th June, with 14.5% growth in its autocentres business wiped out by a 7.8% decline in retail sales. The firm blamed the poor weather for low demand for cycling products, with revenues down by 9.6% year-on-year. However, shareholders were heartened to hear that the company's chief executive David Wild will step down from his position. The news was enough for Seymour Pierce to upgrade its stance on Halfords from "hold" to "buy", with the broker believing that some new blood will help the business take advantage of its fragmented competitor base. The shares climbed by 8.8p to 206.2p.

In the year ended 24th April 2011, Sports Direct International (SPD) achieved pre-tax profit growth of 24.5% to 148 million pounds, on revenue growth of 13% to 1.8 billion pounds. The sporting goods retailer has high hopes for a sales boost from the Olympics and said that it is on target to meet its 2013 "super stretch" EBITDA target of 270 million pounds. Despite generating greater than expected cash flows, the group elected not to reinstate its dividend, citing that it may use the funds to pursue an acquisition strategy. Shares in Sports Direct declined by 4p to 290.7p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Shares in Metro Baltic Horizons (MET) rocketed by 2.75p to 6.5p on the announcement that Eagleheads Investments OÜ had made takeover bid of 7.1p per share for the Eastern European property investment company. The offer, which represents a premium of 89% to the pre-announcement share price, has been recommended by the board, and values Metro Baltic at 1.86 million pounds. Eagleheads explained that by purchasing Metro, the target would have sufficient resources to renegotiate the loan on its St. Petersburg property, which would see it avoid a forced sale of this primary asset.

Office space supplier Serviced Office Group (SVO) has won a significant IT services and support contract with Costain Group (COST) to cover its IT requirements for Thameslink upgrade work at London Bridge Station. The multi-year agreement will have a focus on identifying an environmentally-friendly set-up that will provide significant energy and carbon savings. "This demonstrates our ability to meet the IT needs of major businesses, not just those which are occupiers of our premises" commented managing director Michael Kingshott. Serviced Office shares climbed 0.125p to 2.625p.

Recruitment consultant Networkers International (NWKI) saw net fee income for the six months to June jump by 17% as a 15% increase in its overseas workforce helped to bring in new business. With the improved cash flow that this growth brought, it is anticipated that net debt has now decreased by 2.8 million pounds to 6.2 million pounds. With further strong growth expected within the emerging markets of Africa, Asia and Latin America, management is confident the group can hit its targets for 2012 and achieve another record year. Networkers shares rose 1.5p to 38p.

International baby goods retailer Mothercare (MTC) unveiled a 4.4% dip in total sales over the 15 weeks to 14th July, as challenging economic conditions and the closure of 16 underperforming stores saw UK sales drop by 10.2%. Overseas revenue meanwhile was up by 11% as net 25 new stores were opened and the number of franchise partners increased. Management added that its remains confident about the delivery of its three-year transformation and growth plan, with its cost reduction programme on track. Mothercare shares rose 9.5p to 214.75p.

Shares in troubled high-street sports goods retailer JJB Sports (JJB) tumbled by 1.8125p to 5.7p as management admitted that a rapid shortfall in cash would force it to seek additional funding sooner than it had initially expected. The firm commented like for like sales for the 24 weeks to 15th July had deteriorated further - down 8.7% - while net bank debt had increased to 17.7 million pounds. The worsened financial position has forced the board to rethink its store refit programme amid the cash short fall and increasing risk that the firm could soon be in breach of its banking covenants.

News of a major upgrade of the gross oil-in-place volumes for the Shaikan field in Iraq sent shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) 8.75p higher to 221p. An independent advisor calculated a 30.4% increase in oil-in-place to 13.4 billion barrels, the fourth successive upward revision since the discovery was announced in August 2009.

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