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Monday, October 22, 2012

Minesite Newsletter 22nd October 2012

Untitled Document
Minesite.com Informed comment and independent mining news
Minesite Weekly Roundup 15th - 22nd October 2012

Dear Minesite subscriber,

Weekly Review

Whither goest China? Australians liked the most recent set of economic data from China, which appears to show that the slowdown in Chinese growth has bottomed out.

Overall growth will still come in at less than eight per cent this year, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. Official commentary in the media put next year's growth rate at over 8.2 per cent – not as high as the 9.1 per cent enjoyed in 2011, but at least a return to growth.

The Aussies are pretty exposed to the Chinese economic juggernaut, and are very sensitive to such signals. As Our Man in Oz reports this week in his Australian report, the ASX bounced significantly on the news.

Here in London, we'll have an opportunity this week to hear close at hand just exactly what it feels like to be an Australian company banking on Chinese-led global economic growth, when mineral sands developer Gunson Resources presents to our 91st Minesite Forum at the Brewery on Wednesday.

But further away from the Middle Kingdom than Australia, commentators took a more mixed view of the figures. "China's economy slows for a seventh quarter", said the UK's Guardian newspaper. "The remorseless slowdown has confounded forecasters repeatedly this year."

And yet, it isn't a slowdown. It's simply a slowing down of a phenomenal rate of growth. And in a global market where meaningful growth anywhere else is hard to find, the Chinese numbers remain a shining beacon of light.

What's more, inflation in China remains low, which means further stimulus might be on the cards, and in September industrial production rose by 9.2 per cent and exports rose by 9.9 per cent. That seems to rule out any "hard landing" and lent a certain amount of cheer to believers in the Chinese miracle.

Not that shares are rocketing away yet. "We suggest that markets have not forgotten what downturns feel like and that this is holding back market valuations", said London-based broker Fairfax last week. There are plenty of miners out there who will be aware of that.

But as far as the most recent data from China was concerned, at least there was a silver lining. 

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