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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring ASOS, Debenhams and WPP


From UK-Analyst.com: Thur
sday 25th October 2012

The Markets

The UK is no longer in recession, with figures from the Office for National Statistics suggesting that third quarter Gross Domestic Product rose by 1% quarter-on-quarter, well ahead of consensus forecasts of 0.6%. Ticket sales for the London Olympics are believed to have contributed 20 basis points to the result, while the service sector grew by 1.3%, compared to a contraction of 0.1% in the prior quarter. Over in the US, initial jobless claims for the week ended 19th October fell to 369,000, from 392,000 in the prior week. The latest figure is broadly in-line with market expectations, while the unusually high result in the week before was attributed to seasonal technicalities.

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 6.52 points at 13,057.21 and the Nasdaq was up by 2.56 points at 2,653.37.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 0.27 points to 5,805.05; the FTSE 250 finished 109.49 points up at 11,972.15; the FTSE All-Share gained 4.00 points to 3,035.90; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 6.88 points to 700.80.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon maintained its "sell" recommendation for Cineworld (CINE) with a target price of 220p. The broker emphasised disappointing industry admissions data, noting that September figures were down by 17%. Panmure believes that the firm will benefit from the release of the latest Bond film "Skyfall" but is not convinced that the last two months of the year will be enough to make up the shortfall. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on a prospective EV/EBIDAR multiple of 7.4 for the 2012 financial year, but the broker feels that a multiple of 7 times would be more appropriate. Cineworld shares fell 0.75p to 248.25p.

N+1 Singer kept its "buy" rating for Vectura Group (VEC) with a target price of 120p. The broker said that the drug discovery company's partner Novartis filed its chronic obstructive pulmonary disease therapy, QVA149, with the European Medicines Agency, following successful Phase III trials. As a result, Singer noted that Vectura is due a 5 million dollar (3.1 million pound) milestone payment. The  broker also pointed to good progress made by the company towards achieving regulatory approval for a number of its other products, such as Seebri in Europe, Canada and Japan. The shares inched up 0.5p to 90p.

Northland Capital reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Bovis Homes (BVS) while increasing its target price from 560p to 600p. The broker pointed to a strong growth in sales from 82 active sites and noted that the housebuilder's margins have improved to 10.3% in the first half of its financial year, from 7.5% in 2011's comparable period, as it benefited from site openings on new land. Northland added that the firm's revenue growth rate is accelerating as it secured more forward sales and enjoyed higher average sales prices. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on a prospective earnings multiple of 18.7 times for 2012, falling to 16 times in 2013. The shares increased by 6p to 524p.

Blue-Chips

AstraZeneca (AZN) revealed a drop of 15% in revenues to 6.68 billion dollars (4.16 billion pounds) for the third quarter, ended 30th September, with pre-tax profits tumbling by 50.9% to 2.2 billion dollars (1.4 billion pounds). The pharmaceutical giant's performance was heavily impacted by the loss of exclusivity on several brands, with its Seroquel IR schizophrenia treatment suffering a 95% fall in sales in the US, alongside more modest drops in sales for other products. The shares swelled by 12p to 2,896.50p.

Marketing giant WPP (WPP) reported a 1.6% rise in revenues to 2.95 billion pounds in its third quarter, ended 30th September, boosted by strong trading in the advertising and media investment management sectors in the UK. The firm also boasted net new business of 1.42 billion dollars (882 million pounds) with good growth in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. On the other hand, the more mature Western European market proved more challenging, with revenues down 8.6%. As a result, the group cut its full year like-for-like growth forecast by 100 basis points to 2.5%. WPP shares decreased by 18.50p to 789.50p

Mining group Anglo American (AAL) announced increases in 5 of the 7 commodities it produces for the third quarter ended 30th September 2012. Its Kumba Iron Ore subsidiary saw production increase 14% to 12.5 million tonnes with similar levels of growth in metallurgical coal and copper production. The biggest level of growth came in nickel production, which exhibited a 38% rise to 9,000 tonnes. Platinum production remained flat while diamond production fell by 31% to 6.4 million carats. The shares were down by 19.5p at 1,857.5p.

Mid-Caps

Stobart (STOB) reported revenues of 278.5 million pounds for the 6 months ended 31st August 2012, a 1% drop on the same period last year. Revenues falls were more pronounced in the company's core transportation division, where they fell by 5.6 %. The logistics firm's profits before tax tumbled by 20% to 13.2 million pounds as its financing costs doubled to 6.7 million pounds, due to significantly increased borrowings. In order to diversify away from its reliance on the Transport and Distribution market, Stobart now plans to focus on developing its presence in the air and biomass sectors. The shares crept up 0.5p to 115.7p.

Department store chain Debenhams (DEB) revealed pre-tax profits of 158.3 million pounds for the year ended 1st September 2012, a 4.2 % increase on the 2011 figures. Total sales rose by 2.6%, with online sales doing particularly well with a 39.8% increase. These promising figures come despite the unpredictable weather this year which hit demand for seasonal clothing. The group now plans to open 17 new shops over the next 5 years, as well as upgrading its existing stores in the UK. Debenhams shares jumped by 10p to 119p.

AZ Electronic Materials (AZEM) announced a 1% rise in year-on-year revenues to 203.5 million dollars (126 million pounds) for the three months ended 30th September 2012. The specialty chemicals company noted improving conditions in the global flat panel display market, driven by high levels of demand for tablets and smartphones. The group added that it reduced its net debt position by 24.1 million dollars (14.9 million pounds) since 30th June, to 305.4 million dollars (189.3 million pounds). The shares sparked upwards by 20p to 336p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Investment firm Draganfly (DRG) reported a 35% decrease in net assets over the year ended 30th April 2012, dropping from 1.03p per share to 0.6p per share, a significant underperformance relative to the wider AIM market.  The fair value of the group's investments, which included Motive Television (MTV) and Sirius Minerals (SXX) declined by 0.35 million pounds, compared to a rise of 0.36 million pounds in 2011. The firm's one highlight was its investment in Atlantic Healthcare which it noted was continuing to see high levels of support from investors. The shares tumbled 0.20p to 0.43p.

ASOS (ASC) announced a 42% rise in profits to 13.2 million pounds for the 5 months ended 31st August 2012 alongside a 32% rise in group revenues to 238.02 million pounds. These figures come on the back of improvements to the range of products that the group offers and as a consequence the online retailer has now reached a milestone of 5 million active customers worldwide. In light of the performance broker Seymour Price raised its target price from 1,900p to 2,350p, but maintained its "hold" rating. The shares plunged by 167p to 2326p.

Uranium Resources (URA) reported that it has completed its 120 drillhole programme at the Mtonya project in Tanzania, covering a total depth of 26,485 metres, exceeding its original target of 20,000 metres. Results included a 3 metre section containing 1,167 parts per million and a 1 metre section containing 1,616ppm of uranium 308 ore. The miner now expects to release its maiden JORC compliant resource estimate in the first quarter of the 2013 financial year. Shares in Uranium Resources advanced 0.125p to 2.525p.

Business software developer Imaginatik (IMTK) expects to report year-on-year revenues of 1.75 million pounds for the six months ended 30th September 2012, an increase of 8%. The firm added that operating losses will be around 0.36 million pounds, an improvement on the 0.43 million pound loss it made last year. The group recently secured an additional five customers, bringing its total client base, which includes companies such as Chemicals Inc and Chartis Global Services, to 17. The shares increased by 0.01p to 0.34p.

Churchill Mining (CHL) reported a reduction in pre-tax losses to 10.4 million dollars (6.45 million pounds) for the year ended 30th June 2012, down 38.3 million dollars (23.7 million pounds) in 2011. However, investors were alarmed to hear that the mining company has lost its appeal against the decision to revoke its East Kutai Coal Project licenses in Indonesia. The company believes that this decision will bring into question the validity of International companies investing the country and has filed a claim at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes against Indonesia. The shares fell by 1p to 10.5p.

Financial services firm BCB Holdings (BCB) announced net income from continuing operations of 1.8 million dollars (1.1 million pounds) for the three months ended 30th June 2012, swinging from a net loss of 1.3 million dollars (0.8 million pounds) in 2011's comparable period. The group disposed of its non-Belize based operations, placing them in a new holding company called Waterloo Investment Holdings, in October 2011 and now primarily focuses on the development of its Belize Bank subsidiary. The business operates 13 branches across the South American country and offers commercial and consumer lending , as well as deposit taking services. The shares rose by 2p to 15.50p.

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