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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Whitbread, CSR and Probability


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 23rd October
2012

The Markets

Plans to impose taxes on all financial transactions in ten European countries are being supported by the European Commission. Participating states include France, Germany and Spain, but the UK has opposed the measures, claiming that they would have a serious detrimental effect on the City of London.  The Commission hopes that the new tax will raise billions of Euros which could be used to help struggling Eurozone nations. Talking of struggling nations, Spain's economy shrank for the fifth quarter on the trot, leading many to believe that the Iberian state will imminently require a bailout to compensate for its paella debt. Back in the UK, the Office for National Statistics reported that national income per head has fallen by 13% since 2008, adjusting for inflation.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 251.44 points at 13,094.45 and the Nasdaq was down by 25.70 points at 2,668.86.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 85.00 points to 5,797.91; the FTSE 250 finished 148.90 points behind at 11,891.11; the FTSE All-Share lost 42.96 points to 3,029.81; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 5.22 points to 708.33.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" recommendation for BP March & Partners (BPM) with an increased target price of 130p, from 125p. The broker noted that there is a significantly large gap between the company's NAV, which stood at 178p per share as at 31st July 2012, and the current share price. Moreover, there seems to be little reason for this gap given that the firm is likely to divest its Hyperion subsidiary shortly. Also noted by Panmure is that the company has entered the fast growing Brazilian insurance market via the acquisition of a 51% stake in a specialist construction broker. The shares rose by 2p to 88.5p.

Investec Securities retained its “buy” rating for DS Smith (SMDS), raising its target price from 190p to 225p. The broker believes that the packaging company's unique business model, namely de-emphasising paper, is growing in attraction to the market. Other positives the broker highlighted are greater cost synergies, lower net debt and a lower tax rate than previously expected. The broker also believes that DS Smith has the potential to gain an increasingly meaningful share of the European market, diversifying its revenue base. The share price sank by 4.5p to 207.7p.

Shore Capital reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Macau Property Opportunities Fund (MPO), noting that the shares trade at a 40% discount to its adjusted net asset value. The broker attributed the price weakness to poor market sentiment towards the slowing Chinese economy, but believes that investors have over-reacted. Shore pointed to the Asia focused real estate investor's strong presence in the upmarket residential area of Macau, which accounts for 60% of its gross property value and its healthy cash balance of some 42.7 million dollars (26.7 million pounds). The shares were unchanged at 114.25p.

Blue-Chips

ARM Holdings (ARM) made pre-tax profits of 68.1 million pounds in its third quarter, ended 30th September 2012, up 22% on the same period last year, on revenue growth of 20% to 144.6 million pounds. In addition, the chip maker reported that 29 processor licences were signed, setting solid foundations for further potential growth, and that it shipped 2.2 billion chips, split evenly between the mobile and non-mobile sectors.  The shares jumped by 33.5p to 628p.

Hotel and coffee shop manager Whitbread (WTB) announced pre-tax profits of 193.4 million pounds for the six months ended 30th August 2012, an increase of 10.6% on the same period in 2011, with revenues rising by 14.2% to 1.02 billion pounds. Highlights of the period included the opening of 1,591 net new hotel rooms by Premier Inn, taking the total to 49,020 rooms, and the opening of 41 net new Costa coffee shops, bringing the total to 2,344. In light of the strong performance, the firm increased its interim dividend by 11.4% to 19.5p. Whitbread shares declined by 26p to 2,297p.

Experian (EXPN) has agreed to acquire an additional 29.6% interest in Brazilian credit bureau Serasa for a cash consideration of 3.1 billion reais (0.96 billion pounds), bringing its total holding to 99.6%. The credit checker first bought a stake in Serasa in 2007 and noted that the target has performed strongly since then, now holding a 60% share of the Brazilian market. the purchase will be funded from existing credit facilities and is expected to be earnings enhancing from the year ending 31st March 2013. The shares gained 36p to 1,083p.

Mid-Caps

Wireless technology developer CSR (CSR) announced operating profits of 32.2 million dollars (20.1 million pounds) for the third quarter ended 28th September 2012, an increase of 32.5% from the corresponding period last year, with revenues rising by 16.2% to 282.7 million dollars (176.6 million pounds). During the period, the group agreed to sell its handset connectivity and location business to Samsung for a cash consideration of 310 million dollars (193.6 million pounds) and, as a result, cash at year-end is forecast to be approximately 300 million dollars (187.3 million pounds). The company also noted that its CSR1000 Bluetooth Smart platform will be incorporated into NikeÂÂ's new product line. CSR shares inched up by 3.1p to 341.8p.

Chemring's (CHG) chief executive, Davie Price, has resigned from his position, leading to speculation that takeover talks with US private equity firm Carlyle Group are breaking down. The defence company will replace Price with Mark Papworth, a former executive at John Wood Group (WG.), with Chemring noting that he was instrumental in the successful turnaround of oil and gas services company's turbine division. From the appointment, it would seem that Chemring is creating a safety net incase a bid is not made. The shares tumbled by 32.8p to 313.5p.

Electronics company Laird (LRD) announced revenues of 121 million pounds for its third quarter ended 30th September 2012, up 10% on the previous year. In the business' performance materials division, revenues were up by 13%, which can be partly attributed to the firm's position in the new smart phone market. The wireless division exhibited similar growth with an 11.4% increase in sales, which was primarily due to strong demand from the North America automotive market. The shares slipped by 1.3p to 215.4p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Shares in telecoms software developer eServGlobal (ESG) soared by 2.875p to 14.125p after it announced that its strategic partner BICS has secured a deal to provide mobile communications giant Vodafone (VOD) with its HomeSend mobile transfer system. HomeSend is based on eServGlobal's technology and is the only mobile based international remittance hub approved by the GSMA mobile operators association.

Luxury handbag retaile Mulberry (MUL) announced revenues of 76.5 million pounds for the 6 months to September 2012, an increase of 6% on the same period last year. UK retail sales were up 10% but there was alarm over the international figures which, despite rising by 41%, fell short of expectations. However, the business remains confident, noting that it recently opened stores in San Francisco, Washington D.C., Berlin and Frankfurt. It remains to be seen if these figures were just a blot on the record or an illustration of over-ambitious international sales targets. Meanwhile, wholesale shipments fell by 4% in the period, which Mulberry attributed to "a more challenging external environment in Asia". The shares plunged by 290p to 1,030p.

LiDCO Group (LID) reported revenues of 3.35 million pounds for the six months ended 31st July 2012, up 4% on 2011's comparable period, with growth of 49% in the UK, to 2.38 million pounds, counteracted by weakening sales in all its other markets. The heart rate monitor manufacturer's pre-tax losses deepened to 321,000 pounds, from 241,000 pounds, which it attributed to increased investment towards the development of its LiDCOrapid v2 product. The group also noted that it secured approval for the sale of its products in Japan. The shares dropped by 0.625p to 14.875p.

Mobile gambling specialist Probability (PBTY) achieved revenue growth of 35.3% to 2.3 million pounds in its second quarter ended 30th September, with deposits from players rising 44%. The mobile gaming software developer noted that its LadyLuck's iPhone App was downloaded 40,000 times since it was launched in June 2012. The firm added that it launched a football betting app in Italy and that it enjoyed higher than expected volumes. Probability shares sank by 3.3p to 118.5p.

Sunrise Resources (SRES) confirmed that samples of Cue 1 kimberlite taken at its Cue project in Australia, in April, contained high levels of microdiamonds, of which 88% are white and colourless. The diamond explorer said that the results would suggest that the project is commercially viable. The firm is now performing tests on larger samples, taken more recently, with results expected in 10 weeks. The shares surged by 0.325p to 1.775p.

Diagnostic technology developer Avacta Group (AVCT) announced revenue growth of 28% to 3.13 million pounds for the year ended 31st July, with sales of its flagship Optim analytical unit rising 59% to 1.29 million pounds. The group also noted that its distribution partner Pall Life Sciences recently acquired Californian supplier ForteBio, enhancing its presence in the US. The company added that it has high hopes for its Affimer affinity reagent platform, acquired in January 2012, and that it plans on focusing on the development of this technology. Avecta shares grew by 0.025p to 0.925p.

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