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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Bellway, GKN and Driver Group


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 16th October
2012

The Markets

Inflation in the US rose to 2% in September, up from 1.7% in August and exceeding forecasts of 1.9%. The rise was largely attributed to petrol prices, which were 9% higher than in the previous month. Back home, UK inflation continued its decline, falling to 2.2% in September from 2.5% in October, its lowest level since November 2009. This will be welcome news to savers, but consumers will still have to face sharp hikes in electricity and gas prices by big energy suppliers, of between 6% and 9%.

Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone fell by 10 basis points to 2.6% in September, beating consensus expectations. However, this remains well above the European Central Bank's goal frequently stated by its former president, Jean-Claude Trichet, of "close to but below 2%". As it looks to cope with its debt burden, Portugal declared that it will raise the average income tax from 9.8% to 13.2% in 2013. The beleaguered Iberian country's finance minister Vitor Gaspar also announced spending cuts of 2.7 billion euros (2.2 billion pounds).

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 119.47 points at 13,543.70 and the Nasdaq was up by 28.87 points at 2,768.74.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 64.93 points to 5,870.54; the FTSE 250 finished 129.63 points ahead at 11,985.30; the FTSE All-Share gained 33.53 points to 3,065.15; and the FTSE AIM Index climbed by 3.49 points to 705.94.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Dixons Retail (DXNS) with a 28p target price. With the consumer electricals company linking management wages to share price performance, the broker believes that this will bring their interests in-line with those of shareholders. Meanwhile, Panmure noted that the firm will release its interim results on 29th November and it expects the group to report losses of 27 million pounds, due to poor trading from its PIXmania business. Dixons shares advanced by 0.34p to 21.61p.

N+1 Singer initiated coverage of Lavendon Group (LVD) with a "buy" recommendation and 185p target price. The broker said that the powered aerial rental company is the largest of its kind in the EMEA region, 50% bigger than its nearest competitor, giving it a substantial advantage. Singer noted that despite its position, the firm has struggled in the past to maximise its return on capital, but believes that the group's new focus will allow it to achieve a ROCE of between 15% and 16% in the medium-term. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on a prospective earnings multiple of 11.9 times for the 2012 financial year, falling to 10.4 times in 2013. The shares slipped by 0.5p to 147p.

Shore Capital maintained its "buy" rating for Marston's (MARS), noting that the majority of the pub manager's debt is securitised, meaning it does not burden the core business. The broker values the group's assets that are outside of securitisation vehicles at around 100p per share, implying that the market is currently valuing the rest of the firm's business at around 2.5 times projected earnings. Shore expects value to be created as the group deleverages. Marston's shares gained 2.5p to 120.2p.

Blue-Chips

GKN (GKN) reported revenues of 1.6 billion pounds for the three months ended 30th September, up 8.4% on 2011's comparable period, of which it noted half was organic growth. However, the engineering firm saw adjusted pre-tax profits fall by 1 million pounds to 99 million pounds, which it attributed to reduced profitability from its Driveline business. The group also warned that trading conditions have deteriorated in recent weeks, particularly in the European automotive and industrial markets and that its order book has suffered as a result. The shares sank by 7.6p to 204.3p.

Diversified miner Anglo American (AAL) announced that the local police have removed strikers from its Sishen Mine in South Africa, who had illegally occupied the area since 3rd October. The firm added that it has fired the employees that were on strike and have laid a number of charges against them, including: extortion, theft and malicious damage. Anglo American shares grew by 23.5p to 1,812p.

Fellow mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO) said that it achieved record quarterly production at its Pilbara iron ore mine, in Australia, of 63 million tonnes in its fourth quarter, up 5% on the third quarter. The firm also noted that global thermal coal production rose 21% as it continued to ramp up its Clermont operations, but hard coking coal production fell 13% due to mechanical issues at Hail Creek. The shares jumped by 91p to 3,064.5p.

Mid-Caps

N Brown Group (BWNG) reported a 4.5% fall in adjusted pre-tax profits for the 26 weeks ended 1st September, year-on-year, to 42 million pounds as the wet summer weather reduced demand for womenswear. However, the home shopping company noted that it has seen a resurgence since the start of the second half of its financial year, with sales up 10.1% compared to growth of 4.3% in the first half. Additionally, due to the stronger demand, the business believes it will not have to employ as much discounting as it did in 2011. N Brown shares soared by 29.8p to 299.5p.

Housebuilder Bellway (BWY) announced that it sold 5,226 homes in the year ended 31st July, 304 more than in the prior year, with the average selling price 6.3% higher at 186,648 pounds. The group attributed this to greater focus on operation in the south of England and a greater proportion of private completions. The firm added that its net asset value rose by 5.1% to 933p per share. In light of the strong performance, the group increased its total dividend by 60% to 20p. The shares rose by 27p to 977p as previous pre-tax profit forecasts were beaten by some 7%.

Carpetright (CPR) said that like-for-like sales in the UK rose by 0.6% in the 12 weeks ended 13th October, although total sales fell by 0.6% as it closed two stores, bringing the total to 484. The company added that its gross margins improved, between 200 and 250 basis points higher than in 2011's comparable period. However, the flooring specialist's operations in the rest of Europe continued to struggle, with revenues tumbling 12.2%. Carpetright shares lost 8p to 691.5p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Shares in Corac Group (CRA) surged by 0.625p to 12.625p after the firm announced that its has secured a multi-million pound contract to supply oxygen production plants for two Barracuda class nuclear submarines being built by French naval shipbuilder DCNS. The engineering firm noted that the deal will last five years and that another three boats are scheduled to be built, giving scope for additional contracts over the next 10 years.

Barracuda Submarine

Noble Investments (NBL) warned that its Baldwin's auction house is yet to receive commission of 2.2 million pounds from a significant Qatari collector following the auction of a recent collection of coins. The company said that it will hold on to the coins until payment has been made. Meanwhile, the rare coin and stamp dealer noted strong trading in the new financial year, with the sale of a George V 1920 Sydney mint Sovereign setting a new world record at 780,000 pounds. The shares tumbled by 5.5p to 187p.

Construction consultancy Driver Group (DRV) said that it expects to report results ahead of market forecasts for the year ended 30th September, following strong trading in both Africa and the Middle East. The company added that it completed the integration of Trett Consulting, which was acquired in May 2012, and that it has a good order book heading into the new financial year. Shares in Driver soared by 4.5p to 72.5p.

Firestone Diamonds (FDI) announced that it recovered one small type 2B blue diamond and 28 type 2A diamonds at its Liqhobong mine in Lesotho. The precious gem miner noted that only 2% of all known kimberlite resources produce the high quality type 2 stones. The firm added that it discovered a fragmented 27 carat stone believed to be part of a 200 carat stone, but noted that its current facilities are not yet capable of processing diamonds of that size. The shares spiked up by 0.5p to 4.375p.

Sportingbet (SBT) has reached an agreement with the takeover consortium of William Hill (WMH) and GVC Holdings (GVC), with the proposal valuing the online gambling company's shares at 61.1p each, up from the previous offer of 52.2p, and the business at 530 million pounds. the consideration will be satisfied through a cash consideration of 48.9p and the issue of 0.0475 new GVC Holdings shares for each outstanding Sportingbet share. GVC Holdings requested that its shares be temporarily suspended until the completion of talks. Sportingbet shares inched up by 0.5p to 53.5p, while those of William Hill climbed by 15.8p to 341.8p.

Oil and gas engineer Plexus (POS) achieved pre-tax profit growth of 96.8% for the year ended 30th June, to 3.09 million pounds, on revenue growth of 27.8% to 19.71 million pounds. The group noted that its POS-GRIP wellhead equipment continued to gain market share and that it secured contracts with a number of new international clients. To demonstrate its confidence in its future prospects, the company raised its final dividend by 16.3% to 0.5p. The shares declined by 1.5p to 170p.

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