Top Stories
Iconic Hostess Brands is moving to close its operations following a strike by workers that the CEO says they cannot weather financially. (1) Japan is in a "technical recession" but forecasts suggest economists foresee recovery in the first part of 2013. (2) "Fiscal cliff" talks continued in Washington and stocks moved higher as investors eyed potential for a deal to be reached. (3) An oil production rig in the Gulf of Mexico has exploded, and at least two people are missing. (4) Oil prices were already headed higher on tensions and conflict in Israel. (5)
Economic Releases & Statistics
Japan's exports fell 5 percent between July and September, sending their Q3 growth down by 0.9 percent and fueling talk of recession. (6) The US Producer Price Index was down 0.2 percent in October versus forecasts for a 0.1 percent rise. (7) US retail sales reported by the Commerce Department were down 0.3 percent, a drop blamed on uncertainty about the economy and Hurricane Sandy. (8) Retail sales in the United Kingdom were also down, falling 0.8 percent in October over September. Forecasts were for a 0.1 percent drop. (9) US industrial output was down 0.4 percent in October following a 0.2 percent gain in September. Hurricane Sandy was partly to blame for the disruption. (10) Eurostat data showed that GDP for the euro zone contracted 0.1 percent in Q3 after a 0.2 percent contraction in Q2, which means the area is back in recession. (11)
Stocks & Earnings
Sears reported "another massive loss and a decline in sales" on Friday, precipitating a 15 percent drop in their stock. (12) Walmart workers are planning a Black Friday walkout. (13) Dell Inc. fell to a fresh three year low following the fourth straight quarter with declining sales. (14)
Global Currencies
The yen headed lower on "expectations of aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan." (15) Economists look for potential interest rate cuts
from the Reserve Bank of Australia. (16)
Oil & Energies
Oil supplies were up 1.1 million barrels in the week ending November 9. Forecasts had been for a 1.5 million increase. Gasoline supplies were down 400,000 barrels versus forecasts for supplies to be unchanged. Distillates were down 2.5 million barrels versus forecasts for a 500,000 barrel drop. (17) Exports of oil from Nigeria are experiencing lengthy delays caused by theft and flooding. (18)
Natural gas supplies were 18 billion cubic feet lower in the week ending November 9. This contrasts forecasts for a 10 billion cubic foot draw. (19) Analysts are hoping that the current surplus will drop on forecasts for upcoming colder temperatures. (20)
Grains & Field Crops
The Environmental Protection Agency rejected requests to "waive requirements for blending corn-based ethanol into gasoline."(21) China canceled ten cargoes of soybeans - around 600,000 metric tons - on an improving forecast for South American crops. (22) Army worms in Florida have become the second crop pest to display resistance to genetically modified crops, surviving after ingesting corn that should have produced insecticidal protein. (23) South African corn prices fell as rainfall improved crop prospects. (24) Egypt may be poised to purchase US wheat in its next tender for 2013. (25) Just over 50 percent of France's winter wheat crop had emerged by November 12 versus 90 percent at the same time last year. (26)
Precious Metals
Jewelers in parts of India are reporting a rise in gold sales for Diwali, some up as much as 25 percent on special offers. (27) Other news outlets reported as much as a 30 percent rise in gold sales for wedding jewelry purchases on Dhanteras. (28) In contrast, Iamgold reported a drop in profit on lower gold sales and higher expenses. (29)
Platinum prices declined as workers for Anglo American Platinum in South Africa returned to work following strikes. (30)
Other Commodities
Cocoa output in Nigeria may drop up to 20 percent on disease and floods. (31) Coffee harvest in Vietnam may reach the same 26.5 million bags seen last year. Roughly 35 percent of the crop has been harvested and 15 percent sold. (32)
Upcoming: | Date | Currency | Event | GMT | Forecast | Previous |
| 18-Nov Sun | NZD | NZD Performance Services Index | 21:30 | | 49.60 |
| NZD | NZD Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) | 21:45 | 0.30% | 0.60% |
| NZD | NZD Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) | 21:45 | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| JPY | JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) | | | -2.00% |
| JPY | JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting | | | |
| GBP | GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) | 00:01 | | 3.50% |
| GBP | GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) | 00:01 | | 1.50% |
| 19-Nov Mon | JPY | JPY Leading Index | 05:00 | | 91.70 |
| JPY | JPY Coincident Index | 05:00 | | 91.20 |
| JPY | JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) | 06:00 | | |
| EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) | 10:00 | | 0.70% |
| EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) | 10:00 | | -5.50% |
| USD | USD NAHB Housing Market Index | 15:00 | 41.00 | 41.00 |
| USD | USD Existing Home Sales | 15:00 | 4.75M | 4.75M |
| USD | USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) | 15:00 | -0.10% | -1.70% |
| AUD | AUD Conference Board Leading Index | 23:00 | | -0.80% |
| JPY | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision | | | 0.10% |
| AUD | AUD Reserve Bank Board Minutes | 00:30 | | |
| JPY | JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) | 04:30 | -0.50% | 0.10% |
| 20-Nov Tue | JPY | JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) | 07:00 | | -1.60% |
| CHF | CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) | 07:00 | | 2.01B |
| CHF | CHF Exports (MoM) | 07:00 | | 2.60% |
| CHF | CHF Imports (MoM) | 07:00 | | 3.00% |
| EUR | EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) | 07:00 | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| EUR | EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) | 07:00 | 1.60% | 1.70% |
| CAD | CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) | 13:30 | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| USD | USD Housing Starts | 13:30 | 840K | 872K |
| USD | USD Housing Starts (MoM) | 13:30 | -3.70% | 15.00% |
| USD | USD Building Permits | 13:30 | 865K | 894K |
| USD | USD Building Permits (MoM) | 13:30 | -2.80% | 11.60% |
| AUD | AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) | 23:30 | | 0.50% |
| JPY | JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) | 23:50 | -3.20 | 4.10 |
| JPY | JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) | 23:50 | -¥360.0B | -¥558.6B |
| JPY | JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) | 23:50 | -¥492.1B | -¥980.3B |
| JPY | JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) | 23:50 | -4.90 | -10.30 |
| AUD | AUD CBAHIA House Affordability | 00:00 | | 62.50 |
| USD | USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks at Economic Club of New York | | | |
| AUD | AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) | 00:00 | | -3.70% |
| NZD | NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) | 02:00 | | 0.90% |
| NZD | NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) | 02:00 | | 1.50% |
| CNY | CNY Conference Board China Leading Economic Index | 02:00 | | |
| 21-Nov Wed | CHF | CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) | 08:00 | | 8.90% |
| GBP | GBP Bank of England Minutes | 09:30 | | |
| GBP | GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) | 09:30 | -15.0B | -0.6B |
| GBP | GBP PSNB ex Interventions | 09:30 | 6.0B | 12.8B |
| GBP | GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) | 09:30 | 4.0B | 10.7B |
| USD | USD MBA Mortgage Applications | 12:00 | | 12.60% |
| USD | USD Initial Jobless Claims | 13:30 | 400K | 439K |
| USD | USD Continuing Claims | 13:30 | | 3334K |
| USD | USD Markit US PMI Preliminary | 13:58 | 51.00 | |
| CAD | CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index | 14:00 | | 154.97 |
| CAD | CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) | 14:00 | | -0.40% |
| CAD | CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) | 14:00 | | 3.60% |
| USD | USD U. of Michigan Confidence | 14:55 | 84.50 | 84.90 |
| USD | USD Leading Indicators | 15:00 | 0.10% | 0.60% |
| NZD | NZD Net Migration s.a. | 21:45 | | 90.00 |
| JPY | JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) | 23:50 | | ¥378.4B |
| JPY | JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) | 23:50 | | -¥38.9B |
| JPY | JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) | 23:50 | | ¥309.1B |
| JPY | JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) | 23:50 | | -¥79.0B |
| CNY | CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI | 01:45 | | 49.50 |
| 22-Nov Thu | JPY | JPY Bank of Japan Releases Monthly Report on Financial Development | 07:30 | | |
| EUR | EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services | 08:00 | 45.00 | 44.60 |
| EUR | EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 08:00 | 44.00 | 43.70 |
| EUR | EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 08:30 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
| EUR | EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services | 08:30 | 48.40 | 48.40 |
| EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite | 09:00 | 45.90 | 45.70 |
| EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services | 09:00 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
| EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | 09:00 | 45.60 | 45.40 |
| GBP | GBP CBI Trends Total Orders | 11:00 | -20.00 | -23.00 |
| GBP | GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices | 11:00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| CAD | CAD Retail Sales (MoM) | 13:30 | 0.50% | 0.30% |
| CAD | CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) | 13:30 | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| EUR | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence | 15:00 | -25.80 | -25.70 |
| CNY | CNY MNI Flash Business Sentiment Indicator | 01:35 | | |
| 23-Nov Fri | EUR | EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) | 07:00 | 0.90% | |
| EUR | EUR German Domestic Demand | 07:00 | | -0.10% |
| EUR | EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) | 07:00 | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| EUR | EUR German Imports | 07:00 | 0.50% | 2.10% |
| EUR | EUR German Private Consumption | 07:00 | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| EUR | EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) | 07:00 | 0.40% | |
| EUR | EUR German Exports | 07:00 | 1.10% | 2.50% |
| EUR | EUR German Capital Investment | 07:00 | 0.00% | -0.90% |
| EUR | EUR German Government Spending | 07:00 | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| EUR | EUR German Construction Investment | 07:00 | 0.80% | -0.30% |
| EUR | EUR German IFO - Business Climate | 09:00 | 99.50 | 100.00 |
| EUR | EUR German IFO - Current Assessment | 09:00 | 106.30 | 107.30 |
| EUR | EUR German IFO - Expectations | 09:00 | 93.00 | 93.20 |
| GBP | GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase | 09:30 | 32000.00 | 31175.00 |
| CAD | CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) | 13:30 | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| CAD | CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 13:30 | 1.00% | 1.20% |
| CAD | CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) | 13:30 | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| CAD | CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) | 13:30 | | 0.20% |
| CAD | CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) | 13:30 | | 0.00% |
| CAD | CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) | 13:30 | 1.20% | 1.30% |
| CAD | CAD Consumer Price Index | 13:30 | | 122.00 |
1. http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/16/news/companies/hostess-closing/index.html
2. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/16/us-japan-economy-poll-idUSBRE8AF0JX20121116
3. http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/16/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=HP_LN; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324556304578122940668560644.html
4. http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/16/us/oil-platform-fire/index.html?iid=HP_LN
5. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-16/oil-rises-as-middle-east-tension-may-disrupt-supplies
6. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/japanese-economy-contracts-economists-officials-predict-a-recession/2012/11/12/e4c1ad34-2ca8-11e2-a99d-5c4203af7b7a_story.html
7. https://mninews.marketnews.com/index.php/us-october-ppi-fell-02-declines-energy-core?q=content/us-october-ppi-fell-02-declines-energy-core
8. http://www.salon.com/2012/11/14/sandy_careful_consumers_lower_us_retail_sales/
9. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-15/u-dot-k-dot-retail-sales-drop-more-than-forecast-on-food-clothing
10. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/16/us-usa-economy-output-idUSBRE8AF0XP20121116
11. http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/15/news/economy/eurozone-recession/index.html?iid=SF_E_River
12. http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/11/16/sears-stock-earnings/?iid=HP_LN
13. http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/11/16/walmart-walkout-workers-mount-black-friday-job-action/
14. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-15/dell-s-sales-forecast-misses-estimates-amid-pc-industry-slump
15. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49847271
16. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324556304578122042688424484.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
17. http://www.boston.com/business/markets/2012/11/15/crude-oil-supplies-grew-million-barrels/S8vxgRY4zEU47WuLJAK5FK/story.html
18. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/16/shell-nigeria-idUSL5E8MG4FA20121116
19. http://www.boston.com/business/markets/2012/11/15/natural-gas-supplies-shrank-last-week/SQ5vNC9pudrvAAcvm06zZP/story.html
20. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-16/natural-gas-may-set-new-2012-high-as-supplies-fall-survey-shows
21. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-16/epa-rejects-requests-to-ease-u-dot-s-dot-corn-based-ethanol-requirement
22. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-16/soybeans-drop-on-slowing-chinese-demand-corn-wheat-decline
23. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-16/dupont-dow-corn-defeated-by-armyworms-in-florida-study.html
24. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-16/south-african-corn-falls-most-in-month-as-rainfall-more-likely.html
25. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-16/egypt-seen-buying-u-s-wheat-in-next-state-grain-tender.html
26. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-16/french-soft-wheat-planting-88-complete-franceagrimer-says-1-.html
27. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/emerging-businesses/regional-hubs/west/gold-sales-up-to-25-per-cent-during-the-diwali-in-pimpri/articleshow/17240495.cms
28. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/gold/gold-sales-surge-by-up-to-30-on-dhanteras/article4088258.ece
29. http://www.equities.com/news/headline-story?dt=2012-11-13&val=705000&cat=material
30. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324735104578122892487959854.html
31. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-16/nigeria-s-cocoa-output-seen-falling-20-percent-on-disease-flood
32. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-16/vietnam-coffee-farmers-seen-harvesting-35-of-crop-selling-15-.html
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