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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring BP, Premier Foods and Centamin


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 30th October
2012

The Markets

Hurricane Sandy has caused havoc on the U.S East Coast, forcing the New York Stock Exchange to close for a second consecutive day. The storm, which has already caused between 10 and 20 billion dollars (6.2 and 12.4 million pounds) worth of damage, has resulted in the first two day weather related shut down of the markets since the Great Blizzard of 1888.

Also concerning the US, the Legatum Institute's annual prosperity index was published and revealed that the US, which fell 2 places to 12th, was out of the top 10 for the first time. The index, which is based on a variety of factors including wealth, economic growth and personal well-being, ranked Scandinavian countries Norway, Denmark and Sweden 1st, 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Meanwhile, Greece has reached an agreement with its international creditors on new austerity measures. As part of the deal the country will have to impose 13.5 billion Euros (10.8 billion pounds) of cuts in order to receive additional bailout funds.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 45.20 points to 5,840.30; the FTSE 250 finished 23.35 points down at 11,944.00; the FTSE All-Share gained 20.83 points to 3,050.32; and the FTSE AIM Index increased by 0.4 points to 698.63.

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Broker Notes

Seymour Pierce maintained its "buy" recommendation on Aggreko (AGK) with a target price of 2,500p. The broker believes that hurricane Sandy will propel storm related revenues to similar levels seen after Hurricane Gustav (2008) and hurricane Katrina (2005), when trading profits were 6.9 million pounds and 8.9 million pounds, respectively. Seymour Pierce admitted that the temporary power provider does not have a business model to fully capitalise on events in the U.S but believes the company is in a position to do well as a result of the hurricane. The shares jumped 28p to 2,129p.

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" rating for Lookers (LOOK) while upgrading its target price from 79p to 90p. The broker justifies this by citing the car dealer's growth in market share across its motor division and emphasising the strong performance in the new car division which outperformed the wider market by 2%. The company's reduction in debt also impressed the broker, particularly in the context of acquisition spend this year. As a result, Panmure lowered its full year debt position forecast from 60.6 million pounds to 48.4 million pounds. Lookers shares slipped 0.5p to 77.5p.

N+1 Singer kept its "buy" recommendation on Wolfson Microelectronics (WLF) with a target price of 230p. The broker noted that the group's third quarter revenues grew by 32% to 53 million dollars (33 million pounds) with the audio hubs sector growing 53% year-on-year. The broker highlighted the fact that the microelectronic company has added new large customers with whom it can expect to grow its supply chain. Singer forecasts fourth quarter revenues of between 50 and 60 million dollars (31.1 and 37.4 million pounds). The shares decreased 3p to 203p.

Blue-Chips

Imperial Tobacco (IMT) announced a 4% rise in tobacco revenues for the 12 months ended 30th September 2012, with growth primarily driven by good performances by its key brands: Davidoff, Gauloises Blondes, West and JPS. The company's fine cut tobacco and premium cigars also increased their revenues by 13% and 10% respectively. As a result of the good performance, the firm increased its full year dividend by 11% to 105.6p per share, as part of its goal to increase its payout ratio to 52.5%. The shares rose by 38p to 2,370p.

Oil and gas giant BP (BP.) announced a 7% increase in underlying profits to 5.4 billion dollars (3.4 billion pounds) for the third quarter ended 30th September 2012. Net cash generated in the quarter stood at 6.4 billion dollars (4.0 billion pounds) and the group remains confident in increasing its cash flow generation by 50% by 2014. The group added that it will now focus on its most profitable oil production operations and has set a target of 38 billion dollars (23.7 billion pounds) in asset sales by the end of the year. The firm also increased the quarterly dividend by 12.5% to 9 cents per share. BP shares swelled by 17.85p to 442.85p.

Oilfield support services firm John Wood Group (WG.) has been awarded a 17 million pound management contract to fabricate, install and maintain two weather monitoring stations off the coast of Suffolk. The masts will collect data that will be used to estimate the long-term energy production of the site. Installation is planned for summer 2013 and when finished will be the largest offshore met mast project ever installed in the UK. The shares were up by 17p at 848p.

Mid-Caps

Stagecoach (SGC) announced a 3.6% increase in like-for-like revenue growth for its regional UK Bus operations for the 24 weeks ended 14th October 2012 and an increase of 7.9% in revenues in UK rail. Operations in North America saw a 10.7% increase in revenues for the 5 months ended 30th  September 2012. However, there was a 0.9% decline in revenues from the London Bus business, which was consistent with the company's previous expectation that some of its more profitable contracts would not be renewed. The shares drove up by 0.3p to 270.70p.

Premier Foods (PFD) has agreed to sell its sweet pickles and table sauces business (including the iconic Branston's brand) for 92.5 million pounds in cash, brining the total value of disposals made by the struggling food producer in the year to 370 million pounds. The figure is significantly ahead of its original target, announced in March 2012, of 330 million pounds by June 2014. The group added that this will reduce its net debt position by around 30% from the 30th June 2012 figure of 1.27 billion pounds. The shares jumped by 7.5p to 109p.

NMC Health (NMC) reported a 13.9% increase in revenues to 123.4 million dollars (77 million pounds) for the 3 months ended 30th September 2012. This rise was comprised of a 17.5% increase in the healthcare division to 61.2 million dollars ( 38.2 million pounds) and an 11.8% increase to 70.2 million dollars (43.8 million pounds) in the distribution division. All current capital projects are currently progressing well and on budget apart from a delay in the opening of Brightpoints Women's Hospital. The shares fell by 2.7p to 182p.

Platinum producer Lonmin (LMI) reported a 45.7% total slump in production for the three months ended 30th September 2012 with a 20.8% fall in redefined platinum production after mass strikes by workers. However, employees are now returning to work with the ramp up to full production going better than expected. South African mines have been hit by months of labour unrest which have damaged prospects in Africa's biggest economy. Lonmin shares were down 2.7p to 182p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Shares in Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) tumbled by 34.98p to 63.98p before being suspended from trading. Rumours have emerged that a court has decreed that the company's agreement, allowing it to extract resources from the Sukari Gold Mine, is invalid. This is the latest in a series of rulings that have challenged contracts agreed under the rule of Honsi Mubarak and will only add to existing worries among international investors. However, the miner responded by claiming that no written judgement has been given and maintained its belief that the court does not have the authority to annul the contract in any case.

Skywest* (SKYW) announced that it is the subject of a 102 million dollar (63.6 million pound) offer from Virgin Australia Holdings as part of its expansion plans to challenge the dominance of Qantas Airways as the premier Australian carrier. Under the terms of the proposal, Virgin Australia will offer Skywest shareholders 14.5p and 0.53 of its own shares for each Skywest share, equating to 30.3p per share, a 62.6% premium to yesterday's closing price. The shares soared by 8p to 26.625p.

Corac Group (CRA) announced that its subsidiary, Corac Energy Technologies, has signed an agreement with undisclosed corporate partners in the UK and United States to develop an electricity system which is powered by waste energy in the gas transmission network. The company believes that there is significant room for growth in this market, noting that there are several thousand pressure let-downs in the US alone, each of which could potentially be used to generate electricity using this new system. The shares rose 0.75p to 13.75p.

Archipelago Resources (AR.) reported record quarterly production of 36,184 ounces of gold equivalent for the three months ended 30th September 2012, at its Toka Tindung Mine in Indonesia. The group is now on course to hit its target of between 135,000-145,000 ounces for the full year. The amount of ore mined during the quarter was 703,000 tonnes, with an average grade of 3.02 g/t against an average of 2.6 g/t for the year-to-date. The shares fell by 3p to 62p

Oil production company Edge Resources (EDG) reported the successful drilling and equipping of two oil wells at its Grand Forks project, in Alberta, Canada. The locations of these new two wells were chosen on the basis of extensive analysis and geological interpretation and were therefore considered low risk. The firm noted that the thickness of the targeted reservoir was slightly better than originally expected. New infrastructure in place will allow the company to produce oil at triple its current rate of 100 barrels per day. The shares jumped by 2.75p to 21p.

Shareholders of ICB Financial Holdings (ICB) have approved plans to delist from the AIM market. Trading in the group's shares will stop on 6th November and will be transferred to ICB's Swiss registry. One of the main factors behind the decision is the belief that the AIM listing no longer provides access to capital or allows the shares to be used to satisfy acquisitions. Other reasons that the company gave included the lack of liquidity, extensive time spent on complying with regulations and the significant fees that are attached with the listing. How true they are! The shares dropped by 2.5p to 10p.

* Skywest is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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