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Monday, September 17, 2012

Minesite Newsletter 17th September 2012

Untitled Document
Minesite.com Informed comment and independent mining news
Minesite Weekly Roundup 10th - 17th September 2012

Dear Minesite subscriber,

Weekly Review

The old order may be weakening, but it is not dead yet. Thus in spite of weeks, nay months, of agony in the Eurozone and in spite of various pronouncements from China about slowing growth and stimulus, it was none other than the chairman of the Federal Reserve who really put a rocket under the gold price last week. 'Twas ever thus.

Ben Bernanke's plan to buy US$40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities per month was bold, brilliant, and had an immediate impact. On the day, gold rose by US$40 to US$1,774 per ounce, but it's worth remembering that Big Ben had trailed this third round of quantitative easing some weeks in advance, and that gold has actually risen by US$200 per ounce in the last three months.

So, will the strength in gold continue? You betcha. Will gold hit US$2,000 by Christmas? You betcha.

Two separate factors will keep it high, never mind what fumbling around is done by politicians in Europe. The first is the stance of the Fed itself.

For Americans feeling the pinch and about to go to the polls in November, jobs and the interest on their debts are of far more significance than the relative value of the US dollar against other currencies or commodities.

And the Fed has said it will continue with its asset buying programme for as long as necessary. And the longer it goes on, the better the outlook for gold.

The second reason to be bullish on gold, takes us back to our original theme: the old order is still in place, but it is weakening.

In the twentieth century US foreign policy tended to follow the famous, if not altogether attractive tenet as applied by Franklin D Roosevelt to a Nicaraguan dictator: "He may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch."

In more recent years, his phrase has been especially applicable in the Middle East. So it was that the Americans backed Ibn Saud in the Arabian peninsular, came down on the side of Nasser in the Suez crisis, supported the Shah in Iran, and then cozied up to Saddam Hussain when the Shah was overthrown.

That hard-headed pragmatism kept a lid on a potentially explosive region for the better part of six decades, the odd Israel-related war aside. But now the last of the great American puppets, President Mubarak of Egypt, is gone - and with it the stability he brought.

And all it takes now to set the region ablaze in a conflagration of anti-Americanism is a tiny spark, such as an internet video from a Coptic exile.

Make no mistake, there will be other sparks. A 25 nation fleet is currently massed in the straits of Hormuz, the Fatwah against Salman Rushdie has been renewed, the Syrians are in civil war, Afghans continue to kill their own people as well as foreign troops, the bombs keep going off in Iraq and Pakistan, and Christian fundamentalists in the US are only too happy to stick it to the Muslims, now and again just to stoke the flames.

In such a global political climate, as the printing presses run while the Middle East burns, gold is your only choice.

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