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Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Tuesday's report on UK-Analyst is an extract from the Diaries of Evil Knievil



Kick out Qihoo

An extract from the diaries of infamous bear raider Evil Knievil

Today on UK-Analyst.com we bring you an exclusive extract from the diaries of legendary bear raider Evil Knievil, taken from his popular thrice-weekly column only on t1ps.com. As well as Evil's exclusive diaries, three times a week, t1ps.com also offers 20 hot new tips each year with frequent updates from Tom Winnifrith.

While the success of Tom's tips varies and some have gone down in value, from the foundation of the site in the summer of 2000 to 31st May 2012 the average gain per tip on t1ps.com was 42.7%, with an average holding period of 35 months. This excludes the bid-offer spread and dealing costs, but also dividends, which in various cases have been/are substantial.

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4th July 2012

Andrew Left of Citron Research points out a web site called Anonymous Analytics (well worth a visit) which shares his view that Qihoo 360 (QIHU on NYSE) is a fraudulent promotion and should be suspended. This remains no slight proposition since Qihoo is capitalised at more than $1.5bn and does serious daily turnover. Stock is not easily borrowed - 15% per annum on $16. The volume may be fake through 'painting the tape'.

Barclays (BARC) is cheap at under 200p. Tangible Net Asset Value is 360p+ and the PE might be 7 or less and dropping. I bought.

However, I sold Rentokil (RTO) again at 76p. It's that balance sheet, you know.

Risk Warning: The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. Smaller company shares can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares. Financial spread betting is high risk activity, losses from which are potentially unlimited. UK-Analyst.com is owned by t1ps.com Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and can be contacted at Third Floor, 3 London Wall Buildings, London EC2M 5SY.

6th July 2012

This SeaEnergy (SEA) matter is not simple to decide. The company is to buy in c. 28% of shareholdings tendered at 36p - although, given that some will not tender and assuming that I have read/understood this correctly, the actual redemption will be of the order of 30% of shareholdings. The problem is to value the residual holdings. There might be about 25p per share cash (net of tax?) and a holding in Lansdowne perhaps worth a further 25p per current SeaEnergy share (after allowing for tax?). Therefore one must ask oneself: Given that taking the cash will mean that a buy of SeaEnergy right now at 32p will yield a net of tender proceeds cost of, say, 30p, would one buy SeaEnergy right now? I guess the answer is yes since although Lansdowne has got problems ahead by the end of 2012 it also has the potential for great success - such that the value per SeaEnergy share of Lansdowne might be as much as 50p a share. I bought 100,000 at c. 32p this morning on the basis that tangible net asset value post the tender will be of the order of 50p per share.

Oliver Baring, a director of Mwana (MWA), has bought 200,000 shares at 3.9p. He may be right. I really do not know and, more importantly, nor does he. One day Mugabe's reign will come to an end and will be succeeded by yet another lunatic. However, it must be at last sinking into their thick heads that Zimbabwe is going nowhere with its current policies and, at that point, change must come. In which event Mwana will look very cheap. I am told that Mwana's properties/business in the Congo is worth more than its current capitalisation. So I have been buying at 3.95p.

Yours sincerely,

Evil's Idiot Diarist

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