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Thursday, July 12, 2012

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst featuring Vodafone, Aegis and SuperGroup


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 12th July 2012

The Markets

A bearish trading session in Asia saw Europe's benchmark indices close lower as South Korea unexpectedly cut interest rates and Japan's central bank failed to increase the size of its quantitative easing package. A 25 basis point cut in the base rate to 3% by the Bank of Korea, the first reduction in three years, sparked fears that the economic outlook in the country had significantly deteriorated. The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its current policy meanwhile was put into question, particularly at a time when it had just cut its growth forecast for 2012 by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% and its inflation projection by 0.1 points to 0.2%. In the UK, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the government must make deeper cuts if it wanted to keep its public finances in check. The organisation said public spending needed to be slashed by 17 billion pounds per annum by 2018 in order to avoid public debt spiralling out of control.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 60.06 points at 12,544.47 and the Nasdaq was down by 36.51 points at 2,534.48.

In London the FTSE 100 lost 56.23 points to 5,608.25; the FTSE 250 finished 43.73 points behind at 10,924.05; the FTSE All-Share fell by 24.10 points to 2,909.85; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 7.36 points to 689.02.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon kept its "buy" recommendation for Sports Direct International (SPD) and target price of 350p. While the Euro 2012 championships seem to have proven disappointing to the sporting goods industry, the broker continues to believe that the group is capable of meeting its "super-stretch" EBITDA target of 270 million pounds. Panmure added that the company has significant online growth potential, forecasting penetration to reach 20% by the end of the 2014 financial year, one year ahead of schedule. The shares dropped by 5.2p to 295.5p.

Investec Securities retained its "buy" stance on Devro (DVO) with a 345p target price. The broker expects the sausage casings manufacturer to report first half pre-tax profit growth of 5% to 20 million pounds and believes the firm's primary focus will be the installation of new capacity to support future growth. Investec noted growing demand for the group's products in emerging markets, while adding that its Select brand is selling at a premium in mature markets. Devro shares lost 5.2p to 309.5p.

Singer Capital reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Debenhams (DEB), with an increased target price of 108p, from 92.5p. The department store chain has proven resilient during the economic downturn and the broker believes the firm is capable of generating 20% compound earnings growth over the next three years, compared to consensus forecasts of just 10%. Singer added that the group has significantly reduced its debt and forecasts a net debt position of 300 million pounds by August 2014. The shares slipped by 1.05p to 86.65p.

Northland Capital maintained its "add" rating for Sefton Resources (SER) with a 3.3p target price. The broker noted that the firm's California operations have reached production levels of 170 barrels of oil per day, with a target of over 200bopd, and an expected annual average of 152bopd. Northland added that construction of the LAGGS-Southern Star projects is under construction, with completion scheduled for September. The broker expects the firm to reach profitability in the 2013 financial year, with an adjusted pre-tax profit target of 0.8 million dollars (0.52 million pounds). Sefton shares were unchanged at 1.68p.

Blue-Chips

Shares in Ashmore Group (ASHM) crashed by 22.2p to 307.8p after the wealth management firm reported a 3.3% fall in assets under management over the three months ended 30th June 2012, to 63.7 billion dollars (41.1 billion pounds). The firm attributed the decline to a 1.6 billion dollar (1.03 billion pound) loss from investment performance and 0.6 billion dollars (0.39 billion pounds) of outflows. The performance included a 20.5% fall in the equities fund and a 13.8% drop in the multi-strategy fund.

Vodafone (VOD) has agreed to buy New Zealand based fixed line operator TelstraClear for 840 million New Zealand dollars (430 million pounds). The acquisition will give the mobile operator access to the second largest fixed infrastructure network in the county of 6,600km of core fibreoptics, connecting 19 cities. The firm believes the purchase will allow it to take advantage of the government's Ultra-Fast Broadband initiative as it looks to challenge the country's largest provider, Telecom New Zealand. The shares slid by 2.15p to 181.9p.

Food producer Associated British Foods (ABF) announced that revenues in the 40 weeks ended 23rd June 2012 were 11% ahead of 2011's comparable period, with sugar sales up 28%. In the last 16 weeks, revenue growth from sugar accelerated to 54%, which the firm attributed to strong demand in Europe, although warned that prices in China continued to fall. The group's Primark business also reported strong growth, of 14%, as it increased its floor space, although April sales were impacted by the heavy rain. Shares in Associated British Foods inched up by 9p to 1,276p.

Mid-Caps

Aegis (AGS) has agreed to a 240p per share cash takeover offer from Japanese peer Dentsu, valuing the marketing group at 3.16 billion pounds. The deal represents a 48% premium to the closing price on Wednesday and will create the largest media company in Asia-Pacific, as well as having a significant presence in Europe and the US. The event will no doubt be rather galling for rival WPP (WPP), which has been buying small media groups by the score to increase its exposure in Asia and other emerging markets. Aegis shares surged by 73.1p to 235.3p.

Oil and gas company RusPetro (RPO) reported production levels of 5,600 barrels per day as at 9th July, adding that it was confident of meeting its 2012 exit target rate of 10,400bpd. The group noted that production at two wells has been temporarily suspended for maintenance and will contribute a further 800bpd when operations recommence. The firm has drilled 14 wells since the start of the year, of which five have been fractured and completed. The shares edged up by 0.3p to 133.6p.

Fenner (FENR) announced that it was trading in-line with expectations, with the engineering conveyor solutions division operating at high utilisation levels. The reinforced polymer manufacturer said that it was enjoying strong demand from certain regions, but warned that it suffered reduced order rates from the US coal market. The group continued its capital investment programme and expects to increase capacity in the Netherlands and Australia by early 2013. Shares in Fenner crashed by 29.5p to 344.8p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Despite stating in June that legal proceedings against it had been dismissed, Healthcare Locums (HLO) confirmed on Thursday that a group of companies headed by Permian Master Fund had filed proceedings against the recruitment company and former directors Diane Jarvis and Alan Walker. The complaint alleges that the named parties misrepresented the group's 2010 profitability and has questioned its accounting practices. Chairman Peter Sullivan commented that the board "is surprised to hear that the plaintiffs continue to pursue their claim" and continues to believe that the "filed legal proceedings are wholly without merit". Healthcare Locum shares plunged 0.7p to 2.25p.

SuperGroup (SGP), owner of the Superdry clothing brand, saw pre-tax profits slip by 14.7% during the year to 29th April following a number stock shortages and accounting blunders made during the period. This was despite sales jumping 31.9% to 313.8 million on the back of a significant expansion in the number of its UK stores. "Whilst the tough and volatile economic environment has not helped, our problems have largely been self-inflicted" commented chairman Peter Bamford. The shares jumped by 51.75p to 386.25p however, as the market had anticipated worse numbers.

US-focused Caza Oil and Gas (CAZA) confirmed the Bradley 29 well in Eddy County, New Mexico, in which it has a 20% working interest and which reached a total depth of 12,690 feet in early June, was successfully fracture stimulated on 14th June and is now averaging production of 361 barrels of oil and 524,000 cubic feet of gas per day. The firm noted that as the well has cleaned up, the ratio of hydrocarbons to flac fluids has continued to climb, which may translate into higher production rates once the majority of the flac fluid is recovered. Caza also announced the successful sale of the San Jacinto property, which includes the Caza Elkins 3401 and 3402 wells, for 6.1 million dollars which exceeds the group's return on investment targets. Caza shares rose 0.5p to 7.375p.

Chaarat Gold Holdings (CGH) shares closed 2p higher at 24p as the gold exploration and development company announced that it is lifting its suspension of further capital investment at the Tulkubash project in the Kyrgyz Republic. This follows the Kyrgyz President's imminent ratification of new legislation governing mining companies which has been approved by parliament, providing the clarity and long term stability that has been sought by Charaat. With operations soon to be back into full swing, Charaat hopes to see gold production commence during the second half of 2013.

Provider of portfolio analysis and asset pricing services StatPro Group (SOG) issued a trading update for the six months to June for which it commented revenue and profits were in line with market expectations. StatPro Seven saw new sales at a similar level to those seen in 2011 while StatPro Revolution reached the milestone of 100 clients. The group also unveiled an extension of its 10 million pound existing lending facility with RBS up to May 2015 with the option for a two year extension. StatPro shares added 1.5p to close at 88.5p.

Trading performance in the year to date has been strong, delivering substantial growth in subscriptions at WANdisco (WAND) according to the board of the recently listed software services company. In the three months to June in particular, orders reached a record level of 1.84 million dollars, representing a 43% increase year-on-year. The Yorkshire based firm unveiled new customers for the period including Ricoh and Pitney Bowes, as well as its first product sales in China with Huawei. WANdisco shares closed 5p ahead at 220.5p.

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