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Friday, July 6, 2012

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Aviva, AGA and the Weekly Competition


From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 6th July 2012

Competition

The UK-Analyst Friday Competition is back! For your chance to win a copy of The Dividend Investor by Rodney Hobson (RRP17.99) send your funniest caption for the picture below to richard.gill@t1ps.com by 9am on Monday morning.

The Markets

Lower than expected new jobs figures from the US pushed equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic into the red. The US unemployment rate stood still at 8.2% with just 80,000 jobs created in June, some way off the 100,000 figure that had been anticipated by economists. May's figure was revised upwards from 69,000 to 77,000, although this failed to create any optimism. Meanwhile, head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, conceded that the organisation's next forecast for global economic growth would be below that of the 3.5% figure it announced in April. She commented that although significant steps had been taken by policy makers, further reforms would be needed.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 166.85 points at 12,729.82 and the Nasdaq was down by 41.58 points at 2,605.89.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 30.00 points to 5,662.63; the FTSE 250 finished 60.23 points behind at 11,070.64; the FTSE All-Share lost 15.34 points to 2,936.85; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 5.09 points to 693.68.

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Broker Notes

N+1 Brewin lowered its rating for Marshalls (MSLH) from "add" to "hold" with a reduced target price of 85p, from 96p. The paving company's second quarter performance was impacted by record levels of rain, which the broker noted resulted in first half revenues falling by 5% year-on-year to 167 million pounds. Meanwhile, Brewin said that the firm has implemented a number of cost reductions, which it expects will generate annual savings of 4 million pounds. Marshalls shares tumbled by 6.875p to 80p.

Seymour Pierce retained its "buy" stance on Burberry (BRBY), with a target price of 1,700p, ahead of the group's first quarter results release on 11th July. The broker attributed the shares' recent underperformance to concerns over luxury spending declines, but noted that this has not materialised. Seymour Pierce forecasts like-for-like sales growth of 9% and pointed to the group's strong balance sheet, with net cash of 338 million pounds at the end of the 2012 financial year. Burberry shares lost 50p to 1,289p.

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Goldenport (GPRT) with a 125p target price. The shipping company has sold a bulk carrier, built in 1990, for 5.4 million dollars (3.5 million pounds), which the broker said will be used to buy a replacement as part of its fleet renewal strategy. Panmure noted that this is the group's third disposal of the year as it looks to take advantage of relatively strong scrapping prices. The broker added that the shares trade at a 50% discount to the net value of the fleet, although warned that earnings may be subdued in the near term. The shares inched up by 0.5p to 61p.

Canaccord Genuity kept its "buy" recommendation for BP (BP.) with a 500p target price. The broker believes that the oil and gas giant's share price remains subdued due to investor concerns over Deepwater Horizon litigation and the firm's holding in TNK-BP in Russia. However, Canaccord noted that both situations have the potential to be rapidly rectified, such as through the reaching of a settlement in the US or the sale of the Russian business. Additionally, while second quarter is expected to be weak, the broker believes the company is set to make a recovery by the fourth quarter and forecasts volume growth of between 4% and 5% per annum in 2013 and 2014. BP shares leaked by 6p to 428.2p.

Blue-Chips

Following on from Thursday's announcement by Aviva (AV.) to sell a portion of its stake in Dutch insurer Delta Lloyd, the group has decided to increase the number of shares it will sell from 25 million to 37 million, at a price of 10.75 euros (8.6 pounds) per share. This will account for just over half of the insurance provider's 41% holding in Delta Lloyd and is expected to generate cash proceeds of around 318 million pounds. Aviva shares gained 3.4p to 288p.

Associated British Foods (ABF) has bought Indian flour retailer Elephant Atta from struggling Mr. Kipling owner Premier Foods (PFD), for a cash consideration of 34 million pounds. The target will be incorporated into the firm's Westmill Foods subsidiary and is expected to complement its existing ethnic brands, such as Tolly Boy rice and Lucky Boat noodles. Associated British Foods shares crept up by 8p to 1,292p while those of Premier foods rose by 0.5p to 88.75p.

Mid-Caps

Shares in AGA Rangemaster (AGA) tumbled 5.13p to 66.5p after it reported that revenues and profits in the first half, ended 30th June 2012, were lower than in 2011 as it continued to face difficult trading conditions, particularly in Ireland. However, the firm noted that its cast iron cooker business achieved 4% growth, which it attributed to the launch of its Total Control range. The group added that it expects to report a net cash balance of around 12 million pounds at the half year, down from 31.3 million pounds in December.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Semiconductor wafer supplier IQE (IQE) unveiled its first major order for its Concentrating PhotoVoltaic wafers from Solar Junction Corporation, worth 1.95 million dollars. This follows a seven year exclusive wafer supply signed by the two companies in February. The order will part-satisfy Solar Junction's 5MW order from SolFocus Inc, a firm chosen as the system supplier for the 450MV solar panel project in Baja, the world's largest CPV project to date. IQE shares climbed by 1p to 30p.

China-focused digital surveillance group BlueStar SecuTech Inc (BSST) confirmed it has received a further 970,000 pound order from the Bank of China for the supply and installation of its security equipment at ATM machines across four provinces in the country. The order builds upon the strong relationship the two firms have now held since 2007, and with the installation of the equipment to be completed by the end of September, revenue should be attributable to the current year to March. Blue Star shares inched 0.125p higher to 9.75p.

The latest field work at Ovoca Gold's (OVG) Stakhanovskiy project in Russia unveiled some impressive gold mineralisations, including a 2.5 metres interval of a 281 g/t gold near surface. Meanwhile work at the Rassoshinskaya project uncovered two significant intersections of both gold and silver including a 0.4 metre interval with respective grades of 74.4g/t and 342g/t. With the bulk sampling plant now fully operational, and diamond core drilling planned to commence later this month, Ovoca hopes to provide an updated estimate on the current JORC inferred resource before the end of the year. The shares gained 0.375p to close at 10.925p.

Shares in SeaEnergy (SEA) jumped by 3.875p to 31p as the offshore energy services business put forward a proposal to return approximately 6.7 million pounds in cash to shareholders. This will be facilitated via the purchase of 19,197,442 ordinary shares from the secondary market at 36p, a premium of 32% on the pre-announcement share price. Further installing confidence in the SeaEnergy business model, the directors announced they would continue to hold onto their cumulative 1.75% shareholding despite having the opportunity to take up the offer.

PSG Solutions' (PGS) performance smashed expectations for the twelve months to March, with the conglomerate's shares surging by 22p to 130.5p as it unveiled a six-fold surge in pre-tax profits to 7.93 million pounds on the back of a 249% jump in revenue to 37.3 million pounds. The group's specialist electronics business had an exceptional year, as turnover increased from 4.1 million pounds to 31.3 million pounds. This was primarily attributable to a 50 million pound contract award from the Ministry of Defence in May for the manufacture and supply of Counter Improvised Explosive Devices. The property information services division and packaging solutions arm saw varying performances, the former returning to profit with a 744,000 pound contribution to the bottom line, the latter meanwhile seeing operating profit slip 10% to 273,000 pounds.

Baobab Resources (BAO) has secured funding for the pre-feasibility study of its highly prospective Tete project, Mozambique, following a significant equity investment from Red Bird Investments, a subsidiary of African Minerals Exploration and Development SICAR fund. The 8p placing price for the 50,000,000 ordinary shares to be issued represents a premium of approximately 8% to the pre-announcement share price, and will provide Baobab with funds of 4 million pounds. As part of the placing, Red Bird will be entitled to appoint a nominee to the board of Baobab to oversee operations. Baobab shares climbed by 0.5p to 7.875p.

The Week Ahead

Next week we look forward to full year results from Blavod Wines and Spirits (BES), sports science firm Provexis (PXS) and environmental science group Accsys Technologies (AXS). Fashion retailer Supergroup (SGP) will also issue its finals and investors will be looking for news that the problems encountered in the 2011 financial year have been resolved.

Meanwhile, there will be second quarter trading updates from housebuilder Bovis Homes (BVS), hydrocarbons explorer Premier Oil (PMO) and recruitment agency Michael Page International (MPI), for which broker Canaccord Genuity has a "sell" recommendation, noting concern over the firm's high exposure to continental Europe.

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