| | Weekend 15 & 16 September 2012 THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS
What They Really, Really Want
By Malcolm Stacey
I like to sell stuff at car boot sales. When the weather is perfect, as it was when I went out this week, it's very pleasant to chat to people and flog 'em stuff that has been cluttering up my attic.
As usual, I also use the opportunity to see what people are buying. This is very useful for share picking, as I find the companies which get into the most trouble fastest are usually the ones that provide things that people used to want - but no longer do. Or perhaps they never really felt the need of them in the first place.
I quickly picked up this week that people are buying second hand DVD's and CD's and books. They are going for these things, rather than tools, maps, shoes, camping gear, do-it-yourself gear and anything else that requires a bit of effort.
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The Week Ahead ASOS, Booker, MPC, inflation
After the recent gloomy trading statement from fashion retailer Next, ASOS shareholders might be a bit apprehensive ahead of the online clothes seller's interim management statement on Wednesday, but Panmure Gordon says not to worry.
The broker recently raised its price target for the stock from 2179p to 2378p ahead of the trading statement, which will cover the three months to the end of August, the group's new fourth quarter (Q4) following its year-end change.
"This quarter offers a very easy comparable for the UK, which is still ASOS's single most important market, representing 39% of retail sales in the nine months reported to date," Panmure Gordon notes.
"Most recent UK online clothing sector trends are strong and we expect only a small currency related slowdown in the international sales growth run rate vs. Q3's +54%. We think that the company can report Q4 sales growth of 35.0% (consensus +30%), to GBP145.1m (+17.0% UK and +47.3% international)," the broker said.
Peel Hunt, meanwhile, predicts UK sales growth of 12% year-on-year (yoy). "Most new season ranges are now priced more aggressively yoy," the broker observed.
It has also raised its target price, to 2100p, but in view of the strong share price performance of the stock it has cut its rating to "hold" from "buy".
"We look for international growth of +44.9%, with ROW [rest of world] +60%, EU +20% and US +65%. We expect territories with own-country web sites to be outperforming and look for updates on the development of own country teams, particularly in the US," Peel Hunt's John Stevenson said.
The same broker also previewed cash-and-carry retailer Booker's second quarter interim management statement, where it thinks the key will be a progress report on recently acquired rival Makro.
Peel Hunt forecasts like-for-like sales growth in non-tobacco goods will have quickened to 4% in the second quarter from 3.8% in the preceding quarter. LFL sales of tobacco are expected to be down 1% yoy, though that represents an improvement on the preceding quarter's 1.7% decline.
On Wednesday, the Bank of England releases the minutes from the September meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), but Credit Suisse seems to think they might well be a photocopy of the August minutes.
"More important will likely be the publication of the minutes of the Consumer Prices Advisory Committee (CPAC) meeting on Tuesday," Credit Suisse ventures.
"The results of the CPAC discussions are widely anticipated in UK inflation related markets. The most substantial issue is the possible change in formula used to calculate RPI [retail price index]: a change that could shave up to 90bps [nine-tenths of a percentage point] off the annual RPI inflation rate, depending on how widely alterations are made," the Swiss bank said.
Peel Hunt's Ian Williams, meanwhile, has homed in on the consumer price index (CPI) as the key economic item of the week. "In the UK, the August CPI data should see the downward path in headline inflation resume after the unexpected blip higher in July, while the retail sales numbers may only add to the confusion over the impact of the Olympics on broader UK economic activity," Williams said.
"Wednesday's MPC minutes are likely to retain a dovish tone ahead of the next round of Bank of England policy easing, which is probably pencilled in for November," he added.
Monday September 17
INTERIMS
Iofina, Networkers International
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (EU) (09:00)
Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)
Current Account (EU) (09:00)
FINALS
Allergy Therapeutics
AGMS
Aberdeen Private Equity Fund Ltd. Sterling Part Shares, Albion Prime VCT, Albion Venture Capital Trust, City of London Group, Downing Absolute Income VCT 2, Turbotec Products
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., Mulberry Group
Tuesday September 18
INTERIMS
Good Energy Group, Surgical Innovations Group, Work Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Capital & Counties Properties , Mondi
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (US) (13:30)
Current Account (US) (13:30)
New Car Registrations (EU) (10:00)
ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)
ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)
FINALS
Wilmington Group
AGMS
Mortice Ltd. (DI), Vectura Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (09:30)
Retail Price Index (09:30)
Wednesday September 19
INTERIMS
Anpario, Optimal Pay, Paragon Entertainment Ltd (DI)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Hiscox Ltd., New World Resources A Shares, St James's Place
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aviva, BBA Aviation, Chime Communications, Computacenter, Costain Group, EMIS Group, G4S, Highcroft Investment, InterQuest Group, Interserve, Irish Continental Group Units, Maintel Holdings, Melrose, Molins, Neptune-Calculus Income & Growth VCT, Petrofac Ltd., Playtech Ltd., Premier Farnell, RPS Group, Tikit Group, Total Produce, Tribal Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Building Permits (US) (13:30)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)
Housing Starts (US) (13:30)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
FINALS
Galliford Try, Origin Enterprises, Redrow, Smiths Group, Swallowfield
ANNUAL REPORT
Haynes Publishing Group
IMSS
PZ Cussons
AGMS
AEA Technology Group, Bango, Cable & Wireless Worldwide, PetroNeft Resources, PZ Cussons, Stagecoach Theatre Arts, Warner Estate Holdings
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Minutes (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Cohort, Falkland Islands Holdings
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Best of the Best, Brooks Macdonald Group, Consort Medical, Henderson Smaller Companies Inv Trust, IG Group Holdings, Kier Group, Renishaw, Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust
Thursday September 20
INTERIMS
BrainJuicer Group, Moss Bros Group, Norcon, Tawa
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Dragon Oil, First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Hochschild Mining, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Royal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B'
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Leading Indicators (US) (15:00)
Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)
Producer Price Index (GER) (07:00)
ANNUAL REPORT
NCC Group
IMSS
Ocado Group
AGMS
African Copper, Best of the Best, GEONG International Ltd., NCC Group, New India Inv Trust, NWF Group, Supergroup, Trifast
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Imperial Tobacco Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
Internet Retail Sales (09:30)
Retail Sales (09:30)
Friday September 21
INTERIMS
Oxford Catalysts Group, Toumaz Limited
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Baronsmead VCT 3, Baronsmead VCT 4, Baronsmead VCT 5, BlackRock World Mining Trust, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Catlin Group Ltd., Ferrexpo, Henderson Group, Kingspan Group, LPA Group, National Express Group, New Europe Property Investments, Secure Trust Bank, Synectics, Telecity Group, TP70 VCT, Ultra Electronics Holdings, Xaar
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Real Estate Credit Investments PCC Ltd
FINALS
Asian Citrus Holding, Gleeson (M J) Group
ANNUAL REPORT
Blinkx
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
PHSC
AGMS
Blinkx, Filtronic, Ryanair Holdings
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Public Sector Finances (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Carclo, Eckoh, First Property Group, Northgate, PHSC, SSE
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BOOK OF THE WEEK By John Cassidy
A book review by Ross Jones I am very interested in behavioural economics and have therefore read quite a few books covering similar subjects to what John Cassidy, a writer for the New Yorker, looks to address in his book How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities. However, none of the other books I have read come close to the excellent way in which Cassidy analyses the roots, the progression and the ultimate outcome of the US credit bubble. Unlike other books, Cassidy does not just focus on the events which unfolded immediately before the collapse, but traces the origins of economic thought and ideas right back to Adam Smith's 18th century invisible hand teachings, and analyses exactly why and more importantly, how, the credit bubble occurred and subsequently popped.
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ALTERNATIVE BET OF THE WEEK
Your local betting shop may be great for the footie, but you must go online for the truly weird bets.
This week: what will be the hair colour of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge's first child
Singles only. Applies to the specified hair colour of the first born child of Prince William and Kate Middleton. Must be officially confirmed as exact hair colour below in birth announcement by Royal spokesperson within 2 weeks of birth date. Others on request. PP decision final.
| Brown | 13/8 | | Blonde | 2/1 | | Black | 2/1 | | Red | 6/1 |
Regards,
ShareCrazy
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