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Thursday, August 9, 2012

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst featuring Randgold Resources, Aviva and Stratex International


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 9th August 2012

The Markets

The UK's trade deficit climbed to a 15-year high in June, as imports exceeded exports by 4.3 billion pounds, compared to 2.7 billion pounds in May. The worst figures since comparable records began in 1997 were driven by a 4.6% month-on-month slump in EU and non-EU exports. Analysts commented that the main worry from the data was the deficit in services, which has historically reported a surplus, and was partly attributable to a poor performance from financial services. There was some news to be positive about however as the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that the number of UK home repossessions fell to its lowest level in the three months to June since the end of 2010. There were 8,500 repossessions in the second quarter of the year, down from 9,600 in the first quarter, as low interest rates continued to ease the pressure on struggling mortgage borrowers.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 9.96 points at 13,165.68 and the Nasdaq was up by 5.28 points at 2,719.30.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 5.59 points to 5,851.51; the FTSE 250 finished 27.59 points ahead at 11,464.03; the FTSE All-Share gained 3.82 points to 3,0350.23; and the FTSE AIM Index rose by 1.58 points to 684.70.

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Broker Notes

N+1 Brewin reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Dignity (DTY) with an increased target price of 1,096p, from 950p. The broker said that the UK death rate is expected to reverse upwards after 2015, noting that the funeral company's pre-tax profits rise by 3.5% per 1% of sales growth. Brewin added that the firm beat its first half forecast for pre-tax profits of 27 million pounds, posting a gain of 27.5 million pounds. On the broker's earnings forecasts, the shares trade on a prospective multiple of 14.7 times for 2012, falling to 13.2 times in 2013. Shares in Dignity inched down by 1p to 909p.

Investec Securities maintained its "buy" rating for Pennon Group (PNN) with a slightly increased target price of 772p, from 768p. The broker raised its full year pre-tax profit target for the water and waste treatment company by 3.4% to 217.1 million pounds following a strong performance from the firm's South West Water subsidiary. Additionally, Investec believes the group's Viridor business could double its EBITDA within the next few years, with 250 megawatts of its 300 megawatts renewable energy target for the next five years already booked. Pennon shares edged up by 5p to 735p.

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" stance for Innovation Group (TIG) with a 28p target price. The software developer recently revealed the latest version of its Business Intelligence software and the broker believes this will enjoy strong demand. Meanwhile, Panmure noted that the firm acquired Belgium firm Value Partners in June, which should help increase managed accident repair volumes. The broker noted that the target currently handles around 500,000 inbound calls per year. The shares advanced by 0.375p to 19p.

Blue-Chips

Mining giant Randgold Resources (RRS) reported a 41% surge in profits, to 245.9 million dollars (157.1 million pounds), for the six months to June 2012. This was driven by record production at its Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali, of 210,534 ounces of gold. Additionally, the firm benefited from higher grades, and lower cash costs. During the period, the company sold a total of 231,328 ounces of gold, up from 144,391 ounces in the first half of 2011, with a 13.9% increase in the price to 1,643 dollars (1,050 pounds) per ounce. Randgold shares grew by 100p to 6,290p.

AMEC (AMEC) achieved a 25% rise in EBITA to 152 million pounds for the six months ended 30th June, with a record order book of 3.7 billion pounds. The engineering group made two acquisitions during the period as it looked to expand its presence in the Australian nuclear market and noted plans for further purchases. There is no pleasing some people though, as investors were disappointed to hear of a 70 basis point decline in margins to 7.5%. The shares tumbled by 56p to 1,103p.

Insurance provider Aviva (AV.) suffered an 876 million pound write down for its US business, primarily relating to its holding in Delta Lloyd, causing the firm to report a loss after tax of 681 million pounds for the first half of 2012, compared to a profit of 465 million pounds in 2011's comparable period. The group said that it's plan of simplifying the business is on track, having sold just under 2 billion euros (1.6 billion pounds) worth of Italian sovereign bonds and it added that it plans to reduce its cost base by 400 million pounds. Aviva shares declined by 1.5p to 316.7p.

Mid-Caps

Shares in Bumi (BUMI) fell by 0.1p to 369.9p after the firm reported an underlying loss of 117 million dollars (74.8 million pounds) for the six months ended 30th June, compared to a profit of 54 million dollars (34.5 million pounds) in the first half of 2011. The mining group said that its performance was impacted by heavy rainfall in Indonesia, resulting in lower than expected production. However, the firm hopes to ramp up production in the second half of the year in order to compensate for the shortfall.

Grainger (GRI) reported year-on-year sales growth of 13% for the 10 months ended 31st July, to 202.1 million pounds, with UK margins on sales of vacant properties improving by 110 basis points to 39.8%. The residential property company added that it has a strong pipeline, worth 264.5 million pounds, and that it had reduced its net debt position by 113 million pounds to 1.34 billion pounds. The shares rose by 5p to 97p.

Package holiday company TUI Travel (TT.) announced third quarter revenues of 3.7 billion pounds, down 2% on 2011's comparable period, with UK bookings falling by 3% although the firm noted that this outperformed the wider market. Demand from Nordic countries remained strong, with 12% summer booking growth and the firm also saw a recovery in France, where summer bookings rose by 9%. The group said that it is largely hedged against fuel prices for the remainder of the year and that it expects costs to rise by around 10% in 2013. Shares in TUI Travel ascended by 2.1p to 197.1p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Shares in Kennedy Ventures (KENV) - formerly Managed Support Services - climbed 0.0125p to 0.575p on news that Pershing Nominees had purchased an 18.45% interest in the investment company. With a number of large share holdings switching hands in recent months, is there a possibility that someone is stake building?

Leed Resources* (LDP) has been informed by Manas Coal, in which it holds a 17.5% stake, that a third party company which holds an adjoining licence area to the Kok Kiya licence, may have a part interest in the Kok Kiya licence. In September last year, Leed made a significant investment in Manas, enabling Manas to complete the acquisition of the Kok Kiya licence in the Kyrgyz Republic. Manas confirmed it has made a court application to resolve this issue, but in the meantime has decided to delay the commencement of the work programme planned for the licence area. Leed Resources shares slumped by 0.075p to 0.3175p.

The board of nickel laterite development and production business ENK (ENK) has recommended a 19p cash offer for its entire share capital from Philippines holding company DMCI Holdings. DMCI has a successful track record of investing in mining and other highly-regulated sectors in the Philippines, which gives it deep knowledge and experience in managing country, regulatory, permitting and environmental risks inherent in these sectors.  The offer represents a premium of 38.2% to the pre-announcement share price and values ENK at 49.8 million pounds. ENK shares closed 2.875p higher at 19p.

Arian Silver Corporation (AGQ) has signed a letter of intent for the exclusive use of a newly refurbished 500 tonne per day toll mill, near to the City of Zacatecas, Mexico. The mill is expected to have two significant advantages over its previous mill, firstly having a 25% capacity and secondly operating with two separate concentrate streams. The improvements should allow Arian to profit from increased silver recoveries in addition to realising better terms on the contained base metals. Arian Silver shares jumped by 3p to 14.625p.

Energy management business BGlobal (BGBL) announced it has signed a joint-venture agreement with Korean engineering and construction Samsung C&T Corporation, the details of which it has kept confidential. BGlobal did however explain that the agreement will become effective once the venture receives a firm order from a UK energy supplier for BGlobal's smart energy product. The brief news release was enough to see BGlobal shares surge by 1.5p to 10.625p.

News that gold mineralisation has been confirmed at the Black Water zone of the Blackrock project in Ethiopia sent share in precious metals explorer Stratex International (STI) 0.375p higher to 5.125p. Results from its recently completed 33 hole drill programme at the 95% owned licence area unveiled the existence of four gold veins, with grades of up to 15.97g/t gold.

* Leed Resources is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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