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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Wednesday's Morning Market View from ShareCrazy stars Malcolm Stacey and the Tip of the Day

Read Malcolm Stacey, the Market Update, the Book of the Week and Broker Recommendations
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Wednesday 29 August 2012
QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Another good thing about being poor is that when you are seventy your children will not have you declared legally insane in order to gain control of your estate."

-Woody Allen


THIS MORNING IN LONDON

FTSE 100

5,761.19

-14.52   -0.25%

FTSE 250

11,404.79

29.55   0.26%

FTSE 350

3,060.00

-5.68   -0.19%



FTSE All Share

2,994.32

-5.43  -0.18%

AIM 100

3,043.28

3.6 0.16%

AIM All Share

677.57

0.00   0.00%


14:15 pm
THOUGHT FOR THE DAY
By Malcolm Stacey

Noddy Doesn't Know Either

Hello Share Shovers,

There is a line in most of the Noddy books, gang, if you can remember as far back as I can. It goes: ‘I wonder what tomorrow brings…’

A very appropriate thought for share shifters like us, don’t you think? Trouble is that if we knew that, we would all be billionaires in the shake of a lamb’s tail...

Click here to view the rest of the article


ON THE BLOG

PostScript New Media and UK Housing (as explained to a 29 year old)

My piece on how UK house prices will fall by 30% prompted a range of comments. I am not surprised, house prices and the weather are two defining British obsessions. A couple of folks asked why the media/politicians always talk about rising prices as a good thing when they are patently nothing of the sort.

Incidentally, the reason that they are a bad thing is that unaffordable housing prevents labour mobility thus making the UK economy less productive. Moreover the need to a) borrow vast sums to purchase a place and b) spend vast sums funding and repaying that debt leaves the UK population as a whole far too heavily overborrowed and b) have less cash to do sensible things like save for a pension.

Click here to view the rest of the article


TIP OF THE DAY

Ariana Resources - Increases its investment in Tigris Resources

A report by

Turkey is a large country and Ariana has chosen to focus its own effort to the west but has a strong foothold in projects in other areas through its joint venture with Eldorado Gold and a 12.5% stake in Tigris Exploration.

The flagship Red Rabbit Gold Project looks all set to go into production in 2013 but with obvious potential for the resource inventory of this project of 448,000 ounces of gold equivalent to be significantly increased on the back of recent discoveries.

Our valuation based on Ariana’s stake in the Red Rabbit Gold Project gives a target price of 4.7p.

Click here to download the full report…



THIS MORNING IN LONDON

Markets look to Jackson Hole for boost

- Greece agrees on budget plan
- Spain a concern as Catalonia in need of aid
- Markets look ahead to Jackson Hole meeting

The Footsie remained firmly in the red in morning trade as concerns over the Eurozone and speculation about the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming continue to be the focus of market attention.

According to media reports this morning, leaders in Greece have largely agreed on the country's budget plan to identify €13.5bn in spending cuts for 2013 and 2014, aimed at lowering the deficit to under 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

"If all parties agree that Greece have abided by the bailout agreement, this could be a significant step for Greece in remaining in the Eurozone. The country has been in recession for five years and these cuts are likely to ensure that the recession will deepen which will lead to a lot more unrest. However it will also put them in a position to alter the focus from austerity to growth, while also putting them on a more sustainable path than they have been on for years," said analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.

It was revealed yesterday that the recession in Spain was deeper than first thought in the second quarter, with concerns intensifying after reports that the regional government of Catalonia would be requesting around €5bn from Spain's liquidity fund.

Investors are hoping that the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers on Friday will see the US Federal Reserve hints at further stimulus measures, such as quantitative easing, like it has done in the past.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is being forced to miss the meeting due to "a heavy workload", increasing optimism that he could be drawing up plans for strong action ahead of an ECB meeting next week.

FTSE 100: Ex-div stock Glencore down as merger at risk

Ex-dividend stocks were providing a drag this morning, including heavyweights Croda International, Glencore, Legal & General and Xstrata.

Glencore and Xstrata were also being pressured lower by reports that Xstrata shareholder Norges Bank Investment Management has raised its stake in the miner in the last few weeks. The Norwegian fund is expected to join forces with Qatari Holdings to vote to block the merger between the two groups.

Copper producer Antofagasta was also lower despite beating EPS estimates in the first half as a decrease in copper prices was offset by higher levels of production.

Outsourcing group Serco was higher after saying that it expects good growth in full-year organic revenues in 2012 despite a 2.1% fall in the first half.

Shares in Marks and Spencer were in red once again as takeover speculation continues to fade. The stock jumped on Friday after Bloomberg reported that private equity firm CVC was considering making an offer. However, analysts at Investec have said this morning that a successful bid is unlikely and the "bid spec bubble" is expected to burst.

FTSE 250: RusPetro drops after swinging into the red

West Siberia-focused oil and gas firm RusPetro was a heavy faller after reporting a pre-tax loss of $26.4m, compared with a profit of $0.6m in the first half of last year. Revenues, however, tripled as production ramps up.

A host of second-tier stocks went ex-dividend today and were trading in the red, such as African Barrick Gold, Devro, Ferrexpo, Henderson, Hikma, Hochschild Mining, Lancashire Holdings, Rotork, Wood Group, Micro Focus, Rank Group and Stagecoach.

FTSE 100 - Risers

SSE (SSE) 1,376.00p +1.40%
Centrica (CNA) 331.40p +1.16%
Rexam (REX) 429.20p +0.94%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,188.00p +0.93%
Reed Elsevier (REL) 583.00p +0.87%
Imperial Tobacco Group (IMT) 2,456.00p +0.78%
Whitbread (WTB) 2,120.00p +0.76%
WPP (WPP) 841.50p +0.60%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 278.80p +0.58%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 1,335.00p +0.53%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Glencore International (GLEN) 373.65p -2.70%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,789.50p -2.53%
Legal & General Group (LGEN) 128.00p -1.99%
Aviva (AV.) 320.70p -1.96%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,831.00p -1.85%
Barclays (BARC) 185.75p -1.69%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,654.00p -1.66%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 142.60p -1.59%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 33.52p -1.56%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 220.40p -1.56%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Homeserve (HSV) 222.20p +4.56%
SVG Capital (SVI) 282.00p +3.91%
Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) 150.20p +3.87%
CSR (CSR) 333.10p +2.71%
Ophir Energy (OPHR) 542.50p +2.17%
Chemring Group (CHG) 331.00p +2.16%
Savills (SVS) 399.60p +1.94%
Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust (ASL) 627.00p +1.70%
Dialight (DIA) 1,114.00p +1.55%
Hiscox Ltd. (HSX) 456.70p +1.51%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Ruspetro (RPO) 131.50p -7.07%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 76.25p -3.60%
Henderson Group (HGG) 104.70p -2.79%
Bumi (BUMI) 331.30p -2.56%
New World Resources A Shares (NWR) 288.60p -2.50%
Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (AQP) 39.15p -2.37%
SIG (SHI) 101.00p -2.23%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 176.10p -2.17%
Talvivaara Mining Company (TALV) 131.90p -2.15%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 548.00p -2.14%


WHAT THE BROKERS SAY

UBS has maintained its 'neutral' rating for oil giant Cairn Energy, saying that while the company is going in the right direction, there's still 'some way to go'.

Jefferies has reduced its target price for security group G4S from 285p to 275p and maintained its 'hold' rating, saying that reputational repair following the Olympics contract issues could take some time.

Investec has upgraded its rating for 888 Holdings from 'sell' to 'buy' and hiked its target price from 18p to 95p after the online gaining group's first-half results.

Click here for the rest of the broker recommendations


THE LATEST ON THE CRAZY BOARD

The top 5 hot company threads on the Bulletin Board:

HORIZONTE MINERALS (HZM)

SAN LEON ENERGY (SLE)

ANTOFAGASTA

Rialto Energy - Oil and Gas Firm

Ashtead Group- AHT- Potentially very strong



Click here to discuss shares with other ShareCrazy members


BOOK OF THE WEEK

How to Build a Share Portfolio: A Practical Guide to Selecting and Monitoring a Portfolio of Shares

By Rodney Hobson

A book review by Luka Lukic of t1ps.com

In this book Rodney Hobson aims to provide a straight forward introduction into the world of portfolio management and best practices to employ when selecting what you want to invest in. Thankfully it doesn't pretend to offer a guaranteed, one size fits all, scheme to become a millionaire, but instead attempts to compel the reader to assess what they wants to get out of their investment and then provides guidance to that end.

The book aims to explain the different behaviours of the various market sectors, and the importance of not only holding a range of shares, but diversifying them throughout the sectors to ensure a proper hedge. It also walks the reader logically through a range of factors than can, and most likely will, affect the share price and gives case studies to demonstrate the impact on real companies.

Click here to view the rest of the article


Regards,


ShareCrazy

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ShareCrazy Poll
At what price will GOLD be at the end of 2012?

Below $1,400
$1,400 - $1,599
$1,600 - $1,799
$1,800 - $1,999
Above $2,000

View Results
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