| | August Bank Holiday 2012 A MESSAGE FROM TOM by Tom Winnifrith My piece on how UK house prices will fall by 30% prompted a range of comments. I am not surprised, house prices and the weather are two defining British obsessions. A couple of folks asked why the media/politicians always talk about rising prices as a good thing when they are patently nothing of the sort.
Incidentally, the reason that they are a bad thing is that unaffordable housing prevents labour mobility thus making the UK economy less productive. Moreover the need to a) borrow vast sums to purchase a place and b) spend vast sums funding and repaying that debt leaves the UK population as a whole far too heavily over borrowed and b) have less cash to do sensible things like save for a pension.
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THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS Hello Share People, I read some new letter or other from a respected share broker that banks should not yet be invested in. I have some sympathy for this. They continue to let us down. Their share prices rise ever so painfully, as they are doing now. But it never seems to last, before some new disaster hits the banking world.
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101 WAYS TO SAVE MONEY
By Tom Winnifrith
Every week, ShareCrazy will excerpt a part of Tom Winnfrith's book 101 ways to save money in a recession.
Number 29: Do you really need the mobile phone you have?
My ageing father uses his mobile about once a month when he can find someone to explain to him how it works. He has a similar package to me and is just burning cash. Why should he pay GBP50 a month for calls he will never make and texts which he will never ever use? He should purchase a pay-as-you-go mobile for as little as GBP30 and then purchase top-ups whenever he needs to (i.e. once in a blue moon).
This is perhaps an extreme example of money blown on mobile phones but why not check your bills for the last three months (or keep a diary of your phone usage) to see exactly what your patterns of use are in terms of texts, domestic phone calls and international calls – then see whether the package you have is actually the one that is most suitable for you.
Buy the book now for just GBP6.99 +postage CLICK HERE
The Week Ahead
Jackson Hole, Hays, G4S, gaming firms
The late August bank holiday means that five days of results are squeezed into four but even so, the schedule does not seem particularly busy, and with the major economic event of the week - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaking at the central bankers conference in Jackson Hole - taking place on Friday, markets may find themselves treading water.
Of the companies scheduled to report, Hays , Serco , G4S , Admiral and a number of online gaming firms could catch the eye.
Recruiters have mostly been having a tough time of it and Hays is no exception, although the group said back in April it had made an encouraging start to the year. That upbeat assessment had changed, however, by July when the group grumbled about a "challenging environment", with the slow-down in the financial services sector hitting hard.
The market is expecting the group to report a profit before tax of £120.3m for the year to the end of June on revenue of £3,642m. Earnings per share are seen rising to 5.47p from 5.19p. The group recently rebased - weasel words to describe a cut - its dividend policy to pay-outs between one-third and one-half of earnings per share, so the market has pencilled in a full-year dividend of 2.53p, down from 5.80p last year, which means a final dividend for the year of 1.70p.
For those of you who like to follow stocks in the gambling and gaming sectors there are plenty of updates scheduled.
Peel Hunt thinks online gaming firm 888 's interim results will show growth over the first half of 2011 but the second half of the year is likely to be more challenging, "given the investment in newly regulated markets and the potential disruption of the Olympics."
The broker is also expecting Irish bookie Paddy Power to serve up impressive results on Wednesday. Australia and the online business are once again likely to be the main drivers, the broker thinks, and given the recently reported experience of Ladbrokes there may even be signs of recovery in the bookie's home market of Ireland.
"The cash pile is growing and there is likely to be an increasing interest in what the group intends to do with this," Peel Hunt suggests.
Gaming software specialist Playtech is set to see a maiden first half contribution from PTTS, the company it acquired in July 2011. Peel Hunt is predicting adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of around €88m, including the contribution from William Hill Online.
As for online gaming titan bwin.party , which publishes interims on Friday, Peel Hunt is forecasting clean EBITDA of around €89m, versus €81.9m in the first half of last year.
"The combination of the uncertain regulatory environment in Germany, a weak poker market and rising taxation has led to a stream of downgrades. This has been exacerbated by the need to focus on the integration of the two businesses," Peel Hunt said.
Given the flak it took about its Olympic Games security foul-up, interim results from G4S on Tuesday might get a higher profile than usual.
Panmure Gordon is expecting a modest improvement in earnings per share year-on-year, reflecting a pick-up in organic growth, offset by a four-tenths of a percentage point decline in margins due to start-up costs in the Cash Systems business and lower margins in the US Security business.
"We have pencilled in +6% DPS [dividend per share] growth but cautiously assume a flat full year dividend given the earnings uncertainty post the Olympic contract," the broker said.
"Key areas of interest will be the Olympic contract and how the company has performed during the games, as well as confirmation of the financial impact. Consensus was published prior to the Olympic contract and we could see an underlying hit to PBITA [profit before interest, tax and amortisation] (£2-4m) as a result. The company may also make a provision for the expected loss on the Olympics contract as an exceptional item, like it did with the Kabul embassy contract a couple of years ago," Panmure Gordon noted.
"Perhaps more importantly will be the impact this contract may have on the pipeline of opportunities particularly with the UK government," the broker speculates.
Monday August 27
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
First Quantum Minerals Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
IFO Business Climate (GER) (09:00)
IFO Current Assessment (GER) (09:00)
IFO Expectations (GER) (09:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Tuesday August 28
INTERIMS
Bouygues SA, Bunzl, Eurasia Drilling Co Ltd GDR (Reg S), FBD Holdings, G4S, Inspired Energy, Lamprell, OJSC Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works GDR (Reg S), Regus, UTV Media, Yule Catto & Co
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Dewhurst, Dewhurst (Non-Voting)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (GER) (07:00)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)
Q2
OJSC Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works GDR (Reg S)
AGMS
Advanced Computer Software Group, Development Securities, Livermore Investments Group Ltd., Omega Diagnostics Group, Pinewood Shepperton, Vedanta Resources
Wednesday August 29
INTERIMS
21st Century Technology, 888 Holdings, Chime Communications, Corin Group, DP World Limited, Grafton Group Units, Hansteen Holdings, IQE, OJSC Pharmstandard GDR (Reg S), Paddy Power, Serco Group, Zhaikmunai LP GDR (Reg S)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Arden Partners
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Acencia Debt Strategies Ltd., African Barrick Gold , Croda International, Devro, Downing Income VCT 3 E Shs, Ferrexpo, Glencore International, Henderson Group, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Hochschild Mining, Kingspan Group, Lancashire Holdings, Legal & General Group, Low & Bonar, LPA Group, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct, Robinson, Rotork, Wood Group (John), Xstrata
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd., Energy XXI (Bermuda) (Di), Premier Energy & Water Trust, Real Estate Credit Investments PCC Ltd, Schlumberger Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Beige Book Fed Survey (US) (19:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
FINALS
Mattioli Woods
AGMS
Coral Products, Green Compliance, Ingenious Media Active Capital Ltd.
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Bloomsbury Publishing, City of London Group, Downing Absolute Income VCT 2, Downing Distribution VCT 1, Downing Income VCT 3, ECO Animal Health Group, Falkland Islands Holdings, Fletcher King, Micro Focus International, NCC Group, Park Group, Rank Group, Stagecoach Group
Thursday August 30
INTERIMS
Admiral Group, APR, Bilfinger Berger Global Infrastructure Sicav S.A.(DI), Cape, Evraz, Hardy Oil & Gas, Hunting, Integra Group GDR (Reg S), International Public Partnerships Ltd., Kentz Corporation Ltd., Lombard Medical Technologies, Macfarlane Group, Melrose, Perform, Playtech Ltd., Public Power GDR SA (Reg S), Salamander Energy, Unite Group, Vislink, WPP
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Octopus Second AIM VCT
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)
PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
FINALS
Hays
AGMS
Consort Medical, Iomart Group, New Century AIM VCT
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
Friday August 31
INTERIMS
Bwin.party Digital Entertainment, Charles Taylor, Chesnara, Computacenter, EMIS Group, Exillon Energy, Goldenport Holdings Inc., Headlam, IFG Group, Independent News & Media, Lavendon Group, Marshalls, Molins, Restaurant Group, Vimetco NV GDR (Reg S)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Brunner Inv Trust, Foresight 2 VCT Planned Exit Shares, Foresight VCT Planned Exit Shares, Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT, Maven Income and Growth VCT 5, Mecom Group, Nichols, Reed Elsevier
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (13:45)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
International Reserves (EU) (11:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
U. of Michigan Confidence (Final) (US) (15:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Q2
Frontline Ltd.
GMS
CareCapital Group
AGMS
Jubilant Energy, Victoria, Worldlink Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GFK Consumer Confidence (01:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Atkins (WS), Atlantis Japan Growth Fund Ltd., JPMorgan Euro Small Co. Trust, ProVen Growth & Income VCT, Solid State
Link to article.
BOOK OF THE WEEK By Rodney Hobson
A book review by Luka Lukic of t1ps.com In this book Rodney Hobson aims to provide a straight forward introduction into the world of portfolio management and best practices to employ when selecting what you want to invest in. Thankfully it doesn't pretend to offer a guaranteed, one size fits all, scheme to become a millionaire, but instead attempts to compel the reader to assess what they wants to get out of their investment and then provides guidance to that end.
The book aims to explain the different behaviours of the various market sectors, and the importance of not only holding a range of shares, but diversifying them throughout the sectors to ensure a proper hedge. It also walks the reader logically through a range of factors than can, and most likely will, affect the share price and gives case studies to demonstrate the impact on real companies.
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ALTERNATIVE BET OF THE WEEK
Your local betting shop may be great for the footie, but you must go online for the truly weird bets.
This week: From Paddy Power. Who will be Prime Minister after David Cameron? | | | | | |
Regards,
ShareCrazy
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