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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Glencore, Persimmon and Lok'n Store


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 21st August 2012

The Markets

The Office for National Statistics unveiled a surprise jump in UK government borrowing in July, a month that is historically a strong period for tax receipts. Borrowing in July hit 600 million pounds and compares to a surplus of 2.8 billion pounds for the same month a year earlier. The figure has generated significant uncertainty over the outlook for borrowing for the remainder of 2012. Meanwhile, in mainland Europe, speculation that the European Central Bank may re-commence its bond purchasing scheme helped Spain's short-term borrowing costs fall. The troubled nation was able to issue 18 month bonds at 3.33% at auction on Tuesday, which compares to the 4.24% rate it released a month earlier.

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 12.12 points at 13,283.76 and the Nasdaq was up by 0.20 points at 2,784.53.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 33.15 points to 5,857.52; the FTSE 250 finished 76.20 points ahead at 11,639.47; the FTSE All-Share gained 17.67 points to 3,045.01; and the FTSE AIM Index climbed by 3.53 points to 685.50.

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Broker Notes

Northland Capital initiated coverage of Global Petroleum (GBP) with a "buy" recommendation and an 18.1p target price. The broker noted that the oil and gas explorer's acquisition of Jupiter Petroleum gives it an 85% interest in blocks 1910B and 2010A in Namibia. Northland said that the geography of the territory is already well understood, following exploration programmes by a number of larger companies. The broker now expects the firm to farm out its 85% holding and added that the group already has a strong net cash position of 24 million Australian dollars (16.0 million pounds) The shares sank by 0.125p to 9.875p.

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" stance on ASOS (ASC) with an increased target price of 2,179p, from 1,985p. UK online clothing sales rose by 15% year-on-year in July and the broker forecasts this to have had a strong impact on the fashion retailer's performance, as 35% of its revenues come from the UK. Panmure noted that the group's shares have risen 48.5% year-to-date, outperforming the FTSE 350 general retail index's growth of 22.2%. The broker expects this trend to continue, driven by the firm's international expansion. The shares slipped by 1p to 1,834p.

Canaccord Genuity reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Kenmare Resources (KMR), but with a reduced target price of 54p, from 66p. The broker believes that the group's Moma mine in Mozambique has a long life expectancy of over 120 years, following the completion of its Phase 2 expansion. Canaccord forecasts full year EBITDA growth of 111% to 150 million dollars (95.1 million pounds), heavily weighted to the second half. The broker noted that the shares have suffered from operating problems in the first half, but believes a recovery in the second half will help drive the price. Kenmare shares grew by 1p to 40p.

Blue-Chips

Glencore (GLEN) reported a 17% fall in adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended 30th June, to 2.5 billion dollars (1.6 billion pounds), despite revenues climbing by 17% to 108 billion dollars (69.5 billion pounds), as it struggled with weakening commodity prices. The commodity trading and mining company noted that it retained a liquid financial position, with 9 billion dollars (5.7 billion pounds) of headroom and no refinancing requirements in the next 12 months. The shares advanced by 6.25p to 360p.

In order to streamline its African operations, Barclays (BARC) is in discussions to merge the majority of its Barclays Africa businesses with its 55% owned subsidiary Absa Group. This would include its interests in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and the Indian Ocean. The bank noted that the proposed merger would not occur before 2013. Shares in Barclays rose by 6.15p to 197.05p.

Mid-Caps

Ferrexpo (FXPO) produced 4.7 million tonnes of iron pellets during the six months ended 30th June, 100,000 less than in 2011's comparable period, although production from its own ore rose by 3.8% to 4.7 million tonnes. The iron ore miner added that while the market price for iron ore fell by 20% during the period, the average selling price of its pellets was down by just 12%. The group said that it will continue its expansion programme in the second half of the year and is on track to deliver increased production in 2014. The shares dropped by 3.8p to 190.9p.

Hydrocarbons explorer Ophir Energy's (OPHR) Fortuna East-1 well, in Equatorial Guinea, has discovered a gas deposit containing an estimated 426 billion cubic feet of gas, beating pre-drill expectations of 304 bcf. The discovery is seven kilometres away from the Fortuna-1 discovery and increases the Fortuna Complex's total reserves to 798 billion cubic feet. The rig has now moved on to the Fortuna West-1 location, with results from the new site scheduled for early September 2012. Ophir shares jumped by 24p to 549.5p.

It was a lackluster first half performance by Gem Diamonds (GEMD), with revenues falling by 8.3% to 180.2 million dollars (114.3 million pounds) as the miner suffered from a 30.1% decline in prices to 2,133 dollars (1,353 pounds) per carat. The group also incurred higher production expenses as a result of inflation and rising waste amortisation costs. In light of the price weakness, the group has decided to postpone the expansion of its Kholo project and development of Ghaghoo until prices improve. The shares fell by 2.2p to 187.8p.

Shiny!

Persimmon (PSN) reported a 63% year-on-year rise in first half pre-tax profits to 98.3 million pounds as it completed 4,712 new homes, 273 more than in 2011. The housebuilder benefited from a 7% increase in average selling prices to 171,206 pounds and noted that 220 homes were sold through the government backed NewBuy scheme. The firm increased its landbank by 5,779 plots to 63,786, providing 6.5 years worth of supply at current sales rates. The shares lost 8p to 697p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Self-storage business Lok'n Store (LOK) has proposed a 66% increase in its total dividend to 5p per share, offering investors a base rate busting 4.5% yield. Commenting on the first half of 2012, the firm reported it saw a period of solid underlying growth which remained in line with business expectations. The group's cash flow continued to increase, and this alongside positive news on operational developments and funding has prompted management to re-evaluate its dividend policy. Lok'n Store shares climbed by 3p to 111.5p.

Scandinavia focused MCB Finance Group (MCRB) issued some positive results for the six months to June, unveiling revenue growth of 60%. Pre-tax profits however slipped by 75% to 144,000 pounds as the company realised significant outgoings on financing related costs. The business also reported lending volume growth of 54% to 21.8 million euros in the second quarter of the year, although did see a slight increase in impairment costs of 19.8% versus 16.1% in the second quarter of 2011. MCB shares closed 5p higher at 77.5p.

News that Paragon Entertainment (PEL) has built up a record order book of 11.7 million pounds for the second half of 2012, sent shares in the production and fit-out business up by 0.5p to 7.125p. Significant new project wins collected in the last six months included the Titanic visitor attraction in Belfast, Chocolate - York's Sweet Story and Web Lab Chrome Experiment at the Science Museum in London.

Camco International (CAO), the developer of clean energy projects, announced that its US arm has received a 6 million dollar grant from the US Treasury. The grant was awarded following the construction of its 4.5MW anaerobic digester at a 15,000 head diary farm in Jerome, Idaho, which was completed on time and ahead of budget earlier this year. The majority of the grant proceeds will repay the loan used to fund the construction of the project. With investors perhaps already expecting the news, the shares closed unchanged at 4.25p.

Mineral exploration business Sunrise Resources (SRES) provided an update on its Cue diamond project in western Australia, noting the first aboriginal heritage survey has now been completed. A 50kg sample of kimberlite outcrop has been submitted for diamond evaluation, while the results of soil sampling has defined additional targets at the prospect. "It is rewarding to report that the Cue diamond project has now progressed to this exciting drill stage" commented chairman Patrick Cheetham. Sunrise shares surged 0.2275p to 1.175p.

Mwana Africa (MWA) and Zhejiang Hailang Company have entered into a development agreement for Mwana's 100% SEMHKAT copper exploration area, which will see Hailing invest up to 25 million dollars in the project over the next four years. The funding will allow for the progression of exploration and development at the copper prospect, with the aim of generating a JORC compliant resource estimate and completing a feasibility studying. Hailing will have the option to earn up to a 62% voting interest in the joint venture should in invest the full 25 million dollars. Mwana shares climbed by 0.2275p to 4.1p.

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