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Thursday, August 23, 2012

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Diageo, Petropavlovsk and Delcam


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 23rd August 2012

The Markets

The Eurozone PMI Composite Output index climbed from 46.5 in July to 46.6 in August, a figure which suggests the 17 nation bloc continues to shrink. The closely watched survey provides the latest indication that the Eurozone will contract in the three months to September, which alongside the 0.2% contraction in the three months to June, would officially put the region in recession. The US manufacturing purchasing managers' index meanwhile crept 0.5 points higher to 51.9 in August, a small improvement, but still the nation's third lowest growth reaageo, ding in almost three years. Output and new orders reportedly remained weak, while employment levels over the month rose at their slowest rate since December 2010.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 81.10 points at 13,091.66 and the Nasdaq was down by 6.09 points at 2,777.33.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 2.40 points to 5,776.60; the FTSE 250 finished 27.81 points behind at 11,466.54; the FTSE All-Share gained 0.17 points to 3,003.12; and the FTSE AIM Index climbed by 2.31 points to 685.41.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Lonmin (LMI) with a reduced target price of 1,165p, from 1,186p. The platinum miner has suffered from work strikes and high profile disturbances at its mines and the broker therefore expects the company to breach its covenants in September. As a result, Panmure believes the firm will be forced to make a rights issue to raise 700 million dollars (441.2 million pounds) at a price of around 350p per share. The broker believes that Xstrata's (XTA) support for a rights issue would be a key factor as it is Lonmin's largest shareholder with a 24.6% stake. The shares jumped by 27p to 640p.

Northland Capital maintained its "buy" rating for James Latham (LTHM) with a 300p target price. The broker said that the wooden flooring distributor has performed well in a difficult trading environment by minimising its risk. Northland noted that the group has recently enjoyed improved volumes and a better product mix. The broker added that the firm retained a good net cash position of 3.44 million pounds and the shares are supported by a net asset value of 234p. James Latham shares were unchanged at 278.5p.

Seymour Pierce retained its "buy" stance on Monitise (MONI) with a target price of 60p. The mobile banking specialist announced plans to raise 24 million pounds through an equity placing at 29.63p per share, which the broker believes will allow long term holders Visa, Norges Bank Investment Management and 3i Group (III) to increase their stakes in the business. Seymour Pierce forecasts full year revenues of 34 million pounds for the 2012 financial year, rising to 70 million pounds in 2013. The shares stayed flat at 28.5p.

Blue-Chips

Diageo (DGE) reported a 6% rise in volumes to 156.5 million units for the year ended 30th June, with pre-tax profits up 32.2% to 3.1 billion pounds. The alcoholic beverages company said that 40% of revenues came from emerging markets, driven by acquisitions such as Mey Icki in Turkey. The firm's core product was the Johnnie Walker whiskey brand, with sales rising by 18% in North America, 31% in Africa and 12% in Latin America. The shares advanced by 22p to 1,702.5p.

Like many other miners, Kazakhmys (KAZ) has been heavily impacted by falling commodity prices and rising production costs, resulting in pre-tax profits for the six months ended 30th June crumbling by 82.3% to 178 million dollars (112.0 million pounds), year-on-year. However, the group said that it was on track to deliver copper production of between 285 and 295 thousand tonnes for the full year and that the new unit at Ekibastuz GRES-1 is set to be commissioned in the second half of the year, increasing generating capacity by 20%. Kazakhmys shares tumbled by 24p to 680.5p.

IMI (IMI) achieved pre-tax profit growth of 7% for the half year ended 30th June to 154.4 million pounds, on revenue growth of 6% to 1.1 billion pounds. The engineering company's performance was supported by the acquisitions of Temosa and InterAtiva, which accounted for 9% of the Severe Service division's 26.4% rise in revenues to 326 million pounds. However, the group warned that growth was likely to slow in the second half of the financial year as a result of the continued economic weakness in Europe. The shares lost 22.5p to 861p.

Mid-Caps

Shares in Petropavlovsk (POG) crashed by 74.9p to 394p after the gold miner reported a 90% fall in first half net profits to 11 million dollars (6.9 million pounds). This was despite selling 17,600 more ounces of gold and realising a 13% higher average price of 1,639 dollars (1,031 pounds) per ounce. The group attributed the low profits to negative foreign exchange movements and a larger than expected depreciation charge of 106.9 million dollars (67.3 million pounds). The company expects to produce 420,000 ounces in the second half of the financial year, accounting for 60% of the full year production target, as it looks to benefit from the expansion of its mills at Pioneer and Albyn.

In order to raise funds to invest in its core retail business, JD Sports Fashion (JD.) will sell its Canterbury rugby clothing brand for 22.7 million pounds in cash. The division reported an operating profit of 0.4 million pounds for the 52 weeks ended 28th July 2012, impacted by a 1.1 million pound loss from its US operations, which have since been closed. The firm also said that it will buy men's fashion brand ONETroueSaxon for 50,000 pounds. The target had gross assets of 0.6 million pounds for the year ended 31st December 2010 and made a pre-tax loss of 1.5 million pounds. The shares edged up by 6p to 657p.

WH Smith (SMWH) saw rising book sales in the year ending 31st August, benefiting from the best selling Fifty Shade of Grey series, while maintaining tight cost controls. Additionally, the firm's travel business improved its gross margins, with the UK store opening programme being on track. In light of the strong performance, the firm announced that it will undertake a 50 million pound share repurchase programme in the new financial year. Shares in WH Smith grew by 15.5p to 597.5p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Shares in ANT (ANTP) slipped by 2.125p to 16p as the digital television software and services company admitted licence bookings were down significantly in the six months to June. This factor, coupled in with material engineering costs associated with a prime contract spread across the year, means that revenue and profit for the twelve months to December 2012 are expected to fall short of current market expectations.

News that Borders & Southern's (BOR) 61/17-1 well at the Darwin prospect in the Falkland Islands encountered a good quality sandstone reservoir with net pay of 67.8 metres, saw shares in the exploration company surge by 11.5p to 32p. The initial condensate yield from the Darwin gas samples varied from 123 to 140 stb/MMscf and, based on ongoing reservoir modelling, the company estimates the recoverable reserves volume of condensate to be in region of 130 to 250 million barrels.

Cardiovascular monitoring company LiDCO Group (LID) expects to report a 4% increase in sales to 3.3 million pounds for the six months to July following mixed performances across its markets. Sales in the UK increased overall by 49% with both LiDCO and Argon distributed products selling well, however export revenue dropped in comparison to last due thanks to the weakening economies of Europe. The business does however expect to see much stronger sales growth in the second half following the adoption of fluid management technology by the NHS. LiDCO shares climbed 0.875p to 18.25p.

Initial drilling results from Bullabulling Gold's (BGL) Bullabulling prospect in Western Australia have left the company anticipating an expanded resource after improved continuity of mineralisation was indicated in regions with previously low drilling density. The highlights from the 26 holes drilled include 6.59g/t gold across an eight metre interval and 1.14g/t gold across a 24 metre interval. The results mark a further step forward in the pre-feasibility study into the development of a large scale, low cost mining operation at Bullabulling, with first production targeted for 2015. The group's shares climbed by 0.75p to 10.625p.

Phoenicia Energy Company (PECL), the 100% owned subsidiary of Mediterranean Oil and Gas (MOG), has entered into a conditional farm-out agreement with Genel Energy, in relation to Area 4 offshore Malta. Genel will acquire 75% of PECL's interest in the licence and in return, PECL will receive a 10 million dollar cash payment and 100% carry on the first and second exploration wells drilled. PECL is to remain as operator until completion of the first exploration well, at which time Genel has the option to become the operator. The firm's shares rose 2.625p to 14.125p.

Product development and manufacturing software business Delcam (DLC) reported a 67% surge in pre-tax profits to 2.09 million pounds for the six months to June on the back of a 15% jump in sales to 22.9 million pounds. The significant improvement in performance was attributed to a further improvement in software licence sales, as well as a hefty increase in the recurring revenue generated from maintenance contracts.

With Delcam's second half historically stronger than its first, the momentum these record figures have created bodes well for the full year, with WH Ireland forecasting pre-tax profits of 4.32 million pounds for the twelve months to December. The broker, which believes the firm's success is down to its continued development and innovation, has a price target of 860p and rates the shares as a 'buy'. On the back of the figures the board has recommended an impressive 43% hike in the interim dividend to 2.25p. Delcam shares jumped by 47.5p to 810p.

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