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Monday, July 16, 2012

Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring G4S, Cobham and Wishbone Gold


From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 16th July 2012

Competition

Congratulations to Ian Clark whose caption (below) has been voted the funniest and has won the Friday competition. Watch out for another contest later in the week.

What happens when the Bank increases liquidity

The Markets

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for 2012 global economic growth from 4.1% to 3.9% on Monday, a move it has blamed on delayed and insufficient policy changes from Eurozone leaders. The fund claimed global growth remained in a 'precarious' position, adding "the utmost priority is to resolve the crisis in the euro area". One of the largest growth forecast downgrades was received by the UK, with the IMF slashing its previous 2012 growth forecast of 0.8% to 0.2%. 2013 growth also took a knock to the head, being cut by 0.6 percentage points to 1.4%. The organisation's 2012 growth forecast for the Eurozone meanwhile was unchanged at a contraction of 0.3%, while the US's was snipped by 0.1 percentage points to 2%.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 32.81 points at 12,744.28 and the Nasdaq was up by 0.20 points at 2,585.17.

In London the FTSE 100 lost 3.70 points to 5,662.43; the FTSE 250 finished 31.43 points ahead at 11,075.26; the FTSE All-Share rose by 1.58 points to 2,938.73; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 6.33 points to 687.93.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "sell" recommendation for Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) with a 225p target price. The pub chain is due to issue a trading update for the 42 weeks ended 14th July and the broker expects like-for-like sales growth to be dampened by the wet weather. Panmure forecasts growth of 1.5%, down from 2% in the first 33 weeks, and raised concerns over declining profit margins as the group faces increased energy and food costs. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on and EV/EBIDAR multiple of 7.2 times for 2012, in-line with its peer group, but the broker believes that weak top-line performance warrants a discount. Mitchells & Butlers shares fell by 3.4p to 252.6p.

Daniel Stewart maintained its "buy" rating for RM (RM.) with a target price of 130p. The teaching software developer completed a planned restructuring, with the broker noting a 13 million pound reduction in borrowings and a 17% cut in staff as it disposed of loss making businesses. Therefore, while Daniel Stewart forecasts a 10.5% decline in revenues for 2012 to 313.9 million pounds, the broker expects earnings per share to increase to 11p, from 7.2p for 2011. The shares were unchanged at 78p.

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" stance on CSR (CSR) with a 275p target price. The broker expects the semiconductor manufacturer to report second quarter revenues of 252.1 million dollars (162.4 million pounds) and an upbeat full year outlook, when it releases results on 24th July. Canaccord expects to see a good contribution from the cameras division, benefiting from the acquisition of Zoran, noting that the firm has a number of major customers, such as Nokia and Samsung. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on a prospective earnings multiple of 12.3 times for 2012, falling to 12.2 times in 2013. The shares slipped by 0.1p to 218.3p.

Blue-Chips

Shares in G4S (GFS) crashed 24.1p to 254.6p on the news that it will not be able to supply sufficient security staff for the 2012 Olympics, claiming it is unable to train and vet enough new personnel in time. As a result, the government has decided to increase the military presence at the games to ensure security and G4S has accepted to foot the bill. The fiasco is expected to cost the firm between 35 million and 50 million pounds. Broker Seymour Pierce downgraded the shares from "buy" to "hold" on the news, moving its target price from 350p to 240p.

Smiths Group (SMIN) announced the sale of its minority stake in US biometric firm Cross Match Technologies for 77 million dollars (49.4 million pounds). The move comes as the engineering company looks to simplify its business, with the deal representing a 114% premium to the recorded book value. The group's holding in Cross Match derived from the purchase of Deimann Systems in 2002, whose Biometrics division was sold to Cross Match in 2005 in exchange for equity. Smiths shares grew by 15p to 1,052p.

Business software developer Sage Group (SGE) said that good growth in the UK and Ireland was counteracted by a decline in trading in mainland Europe during the period from 1st April to date. As a result, the firm noted a broadly flat performance from Europe as a whole, falling short of the expected improvement in growth over the first half of the financial year. Elsewhere, the group enjoyed continued quarter-on-quarter growth in North America and and strong performances in South Africa and Australia. The shares tumbled by 9p to 276p.

Glencore (GLEN) reported that it has received approval from the Minister of Industry for its 4 billion pound takeover of Canadian agriculture business Viterra. The commodities trading and mining company added that it would increase the target's capital expenditure in Canada by over 100 million Canadian dollars (64.2 million pounds) over the next five years, as well as increase support to the Western Canadian farm community by 25%. The group added that approval is still required from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. Glencore shares edged down by 0.15p to 316.5p.

Mid-Caps

John Menzies (MNZS) announced that it will restructure its UK cargo business, as it looks to return it to profitability. The aviation and distribution company will increase focus on its operations at London Heathrow airport, as well as Aberdeen and Belfast, while closing its cargo operations at airports in Glasgow, Birmingham, East Midlands and Manchester. The restructuring is expected to cost up to 3 million pounds and will be completed by August 2012. Shares in John Menzies inched up by 6p to 612p.

Aerospace and defence company Cobham (COB) has secured an 18 month extension on an existing contract to produce fixed waveguides for telecommunication satellites for space systems firm Astrium, worth 14 million pounds. As a result, Cobham will look to increase its skilled workforce at its facilities in England and France by between 20% and 25%. The products will be used to deliver home TV, broadband and telecommunications. The shares advanced by 1.8p to 237.2p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Shares in President Petroleum Company (PPC) climbed 0.5p to 26p as the Argentina focused oil producer confirmed it had participated, along with its joint-venture partner, in the bidding process for three exploration licenses surrounding the Puesto Guardian concession. The licences cover a combined area of 5,948 square kilometres, with two of the blocks being on the same structural trend as Palaeozoic, a highly prospective site which President already holds the licence for. A resolution of the final awards is expected in the coming weeks, the company confirming that should it be successful it would be the operator of the concessions.

SpaceandPeople (SAL) has signed a deal with Capital Shopping Centres Group (CSCG) to manage and sell promotional space in the majority of its shopping centres, sending shares in the marketing specialist 7.5p higher to 74.5p. The exclusive arrangement, which complements the existing 2002 agreement with Capital Shopping - for the Arndale Centre, Manchester, and the Cribbs Causeway, Bristol - will see SpaceandPeople take on an additional 11 venues.  Capital Shopping shares rose 3.8p to 330.3p.

Shares in Borders and Southern (BOR) tumbled 44p - more than 70% - to 18.25p on news that the 61/25-1 Stebbing well was drilled to a total depth of 3.06 kilometres but was unable to reach lower targets due to anomalous pressure conditions. The well encountered very strong gas shows in upper targets, although due to the thin bedded character of these zones, the firm's initial assessment is that these finds are unlikely to be commercially viable. Following these 'disappointing' results, Borders and Southern has made the decision to plug and abandon the well.

Engine technology firm Clean Air Power (CAP) reported that trading for the six months to June had been encouraging, with sales almost double that of the prior comparable at 3.9 million pounds. The group attributed the greatly improved revenue figure to increasing interest in its products across Europe, which saw it sell more than 100 Genesis EDGE and European OEM systems during the period compared to the 37 it sold in the first half of 2011. Clean Air Power added it has now had 250 orders during 2012 for the two systems, suggesting the company’s performance is only going to improve over the six months to December.

News that San Leon Energy (SLE) has spudded the Lelechow SL-1 well at its Nova Sol concession in Poland sent shares in the natural resources business 0.125p higher to 10.625p. The well is planned to reach an estimated total vertical depth of 1,090 metres and is expected to take 30 days to drill and evaluate. It is then the firm's intention to move the drill to Cheslaw-SL1, the second of the two wells at Nova Sol where it will replicate this process.

Wishbone Gold (WSBN), a precious metals exploration company led by ex-Sirius Minerals chief executive office Richard Poulden, completed its first day of trading on AIM after raising 515,000 pounds. The firm intends to use the proceeds of the placing to assist in funding the initial exploration costs of two concessions in Queensland, Australia, which according to a competent person's report are high quality exploration targets. The shares closed at 2.5p, valuing the company at 4.25 million pounds.

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