Wednesday 3 October 2012
QUOTE OF THE DAY
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. Then quit. There's no point in being a damn fool about it
- WC Fields
ON THE SHARECRAZY BLOG
by East London's most feared short seller, Lucian Miers
Back in January I advised selling JJB Sports on the basis that UBS had just taken a stake, and pointed out the many instances where large positions are taken in companies shortly before they go bust.
JJB were allowed to stumble along for the Euro football and the Olympics, allowing confirmation of the foolishness of UBS's investment to be delayed by eight months, but the tradition of people buying large stakes in companies days before suspension is alive and well.
On September 18th one Samat Modhavia announced a holding of 7.9 million JJB shares or 1.95% and on the 20th Dr and Mrs Chan topped that by announcing that they held 19.7 million shares, or 4.85%. The shares were suspended on 24th Sept and their worthlessness was confirmed yesterday.
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THIS MORNING IN LONDON
FTSE 100
5,811.06
1.61 0.03%
FTSE 250
11,891.22
-3.19 -0.03%
FTSE 350
3,100.01
0.63 0.02%
FTSE All Share
3,035.05
0.47 0.02%
AIM 100
3,232.90
-1.80 -0.06%
AIM All Share
709.17
-0.29 -0.04%
11:56 am
Stocks flat as economic data disappoints
- Gloomy Chinese, UK and Eurozone data
- Rajoy denies bailout
- FirstGroup sinks after West Coast disappointment.
The FTSE 100 was trading broadly flat by midday on Wednesday as investors remained cautious after a raft of disappointing economic data.
China's non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell from 56.3 to 53.7 in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. China's consumer sentiment index also fell from 90.4 to 89.3 last month, its lowest level since December, according to Deutsche Boerse's MNI.
Meanwhile, the UK's dominant service sector expanded in September but undershot analysts' forecasts. Markit's service sector PMI registered 52.2 down from 53.7 the month before. Analysts had pencilled in a reading of 53.
In Eurozone news, the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index (which reflects a weighted-average combination of the manufacturing and services sector in the region) hit a four-month low at 46.1. Although also ahead of the flash estimate of 45.9, it still slipped from August's reading of 46.3.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy yesterday denied claims that his country is looking to request a bailout this weekend. He said that the country had no immediate plans to ask for aid.
"Uncertainty is returning to the markets at the moment as Mariano Rajoy plays his cards very close to his chest in respect to Spain's request for a bailout. While it's a foregone conclusion now that Spain will request a bailout, no one really has a clue when this is," said market analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.
"There is a general consensus that Rajoy will wait until after the regional elections on 21 October, as we saw a similar move earlier in the year, however this is only an educated guess at best. One thing that appears certain is that until we do see some progress here, we're unlikely to see many big moves in the markets," he said.
FTSE 100: Sainsbury's picks up but Tesco still down
After an earlier fall, retailing giant Sainsbury's was higher by lunchtime after saying it had outperformed the market in the second quarter, with total sales up 4.4% excluding fuel and like-for-like (LFL) sales up 1.9%.
However, sector peer Tesco was still in the red after its interim results. The supermarket colossus saw a return to LFL sales growth in the second quarter, although it has had to sacrifice margin to do so. Pre-tax profits (pre exceptionals and property profits) fell 15%, worse than expected according to Seymour Pierce which labelled them as "disappointing" this morning.
Pearson, the education and publishing firm, dropped after revealing that its Chief Executive Officer Marjorie Scardino has decided to call it quits at the end of the year.
Asset manager Schroders was unwanted this morning after UBS cut its rating on the stock from 'neutral' to 'sell'. "We believe that expectations on flows and on capital returns have led the stock to re-rate vs peers while we remain cautious on both points," the broker said.
Heading the other way was mining group Xstrata after raising its copper mineral resource estimate at the major long-life development El Pachon project in San Juan Province, Argentina, by 20%.
FTSE 250: Transport groups react to cancellation of West Coast rail deal
Shares in transport firm FirstGroup took a hammering this morning after the Department for Transport (DfT) dropped the competition to award it the West Coast franchise. Following a legal challenge from current operator Virgin Rail, the DfT said it had found "significant technical flaws in the way the franchise process was conducted" and was launching a review.
Stagecoach, part owner of the Virgin Rail joint venture with Virgin Group, was in demand after saying it was in discussions with the government regarding the rail franchising review.
Meanwhile, according to Jefferies, the three other live franchise contests out (the Great Western, Essex Thameside and Thameslink contracts) will likely be delayed as a result of a government review, taking down the share prices of Go-Ahead and National Express.
BTG, the specialist healthcare company, jumped after reporting it had outperformed in the first half and was boosting its revenue expectations for the full year.
Budget airline easyJet was in demand after a surge in business at the end of the summer and a benign operating environment means it was upping its full-year profit forecasts.
FTSE 100 - Risers
ARM Holdings (ARM) 585.50p +1.47%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 161.30p +1.45%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 587.70p +1.24%
Evraz (EVR) 249.30p +1.22%
Xstrata (XTA) 978.10p +1.19%
Centrica (CNA) 331.70p +1.19%
Glencore International (GLEN) 342.00p +1.18%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 1,051.00p +0.86%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 641.00p +0.79%
British Sky Broadcasting Group (BSY) 758.50p +0.73%
FTSE 100 - Fallers
Anglo American (AAL) 1,838.50p -1.95%
Capita (CPI) 762.00p -1.74%
IMI (IMI) 935.00p -1.53%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,771.00p -1.50%
Schroders (SDR) 1,520.00p -1.49%
Severn Trent (SVT) 1,658.00p -1.37%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,051.00p -1.22%
Tesco (TSCO) 332.70p -1.19%
Serco Group (SRP) 584.50p -1.18%
Smith & Nephew (SN.) 683.50p -1.09%
FTSE 250 - Risers
BTG (BTG) 360.60p +8.26%
easyJet (EZJ) 622.50p +4.80%
Dunelm Group (DNLM) 686.00p +4.73%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 94.30p +4.66%
St. Modwen Properties (SMP) 203.80p +4.25%
Talvivaara Mining Company (TALV) 157.50p +2.47%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 96.15p +2.29%
Stagecoach Group (SGC) 289.50p +2.19%
TUI Travel (TT.) 240.70p +2.12%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 211.50p +1.78%
FTSE 250 - Fallers
FirstGroup (FGP) 196.40p -19.51%
Bumi (BUMI) 152.00p -4.70%
Ruspetro (RPO) 103.00p -4.19%
Bodycote (BOY) 394.00p -2.60%
Lancashire Holdings (LRE) 823.00p -2.20%
Galliford Try (GFRD) 715.00p -2.19%
Spectris (SXS) 1,760.00p -1.95%
Inmarsat (ISAT) 574.00p -1.88%
Bank of Georgia Holdings (BGEO) 1,172.00p -1.84%
Petropavlovsk (POG) 420.10p -1.75%
WHAT THE BROKERS SAY
TIP OF THE DAY
A report by GECR
- First production from the I-1 well started in late-August which marks a crucial milestone in the development of the company. Early production has been encouraging with indications that condensate production may be higher than expected.
- This is just the beginning of the story at Mustang Island with future development work on other existing prospects within this same licence area which has the potential to significantly upgrade the Company's reserves and valuation.
- Silvermere is seeking to grow by acquiring further at or near production, secondary and tertiary oil and natural gas opportunities onshore and shallow offshore the US that have the promise of early cash flow and Currently evaluating possible acquisition of an producing oil asset in New Mexico.
- 2P reserves at Mustang Island alone allows us to determine a target price of 22p.
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THE LATEST ON THE CRAZY BOARD
The top 5 hot company threads on the Bulletin Board:
Sports Direct
Senior
Falkland Oil & Gas
Milliwall
The Running Trading Thread
Click here to discuss shares with other ShareCrazy members
BOOK OF THE WEEK
By John Piper
A book review by Aaron Padgham
Spread betters will all remember the time when one of their positions fell through its stop-loss, closing out the position by narrowest of margins, only for the price to rocket five minutes later! Cue the binary bet, a trading instrument that can immediately limit down-side risk. In Binary Trading John Piper introduces investors to relatively new concept of binary betting, in which punters can make the most outrageous moves in complete safety. The binary bet allows spread betters to bet on the particular outcome for a market, for example if the FTSE will close up. As the name infers, there can only be two possible outcomes, the FTSE closes up or down, and thus the investor gains or loses a pre-determined amount.
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