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Monday, September 10, 2012

Minesite Newsletter 10th September 2012

Untitled Document
Minesite.com Informed comment and independent mining news
Minesite Weekly Roundup 3rd - 10th September 2012

Dear Minesite subscriber,

Weekly Review

What would the great Tiny Rowland have made of it all? His company, Lonrho – a genuine force then, not the bloated parody it is now – was the forerunner of the current Lonmin, and once used its revenues from platinum mining in South Africa to fund all manner of other ventures including famously, development of the interestingly-named Wankel engine.

British Prime Minister Harold Wilson dubbed Rowland "the unacceptable face of capitalism". But not because he was exploiting South African mine workers, but rather because he was breaking sanctions against Rhodesia, a policy of Wilson's own devising.

But Rowland was also pally with senior rebel leader Joshua Nkomo, and had such strong ties to the ANC in South Africa that after apartheid the country actually honoured him - Nelson Mandela gave him the Order of Good Hope in 1996.

Would that the inheritors of his mantle at Lonmin could play the politics so well. But their options are far more limited. Julius Malema is the only credible opposition to the unholy alliance between the ANC, the NUM and the mining companies, and he is such a firebrand that cozying up to him would be tantamount to committing business suicide.

So the strike at Marikana lingers on, AMCU's position remains unclear and South Africa's detractors have ever more grounds for their pessimism.

There is, after all, a strong case to be made that the ANC has consistently shown that it has a valuable lesson to teach the Chinese: how to run a one-party state without incurring the ire of the Americans. Even to the point of committing massacres against its own people.

But it would be a mistake to write off South African democracy just yet. Marikana may well cost the ANC. Commentators from the business community point out that the government has long encouraged violence as a means of redressing the wrongs of the past, and that as such responsibility for the rise of AMCU and the subsequent behaviour of its members should be laid squarely at its door.

Note that Cyril Ramaphosa, a former NUM activist at Marikana and ANC stalwart, now sits on the board of Lonmin and appears at number 36 in Forbes's list of richest Africans.

More to the point though, the electorate are becoming restless. Where is the delivery – and where is the alternative? If one isn't provided, they will surely create one. How peaceful that process is will be the true test of pluralistic South Africa.


Just to remind you that our next investor forum is on Thursday 27th September and we look forward to seeing you at our new venue, The Brewery – 52 Chiswell Street EC1Y 4SD.

And don't forget to keep abreast of our developments on Minesite, and via our twitter feed and Facebook page.

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