| | Sunday 19 August 2012 A MESSAGE FROM TOM by Tom Winnifrith In terms of twitter followers I zoomed past another 3 million folk and am now among the top nine million (of 500 million on this planet). Richard Gill will be overtaken by Sunday evening. (Follow me HERE – RG). But I am now convinced that this means absolutely nothing at all. Sure, some folks are following me because they genuinely want alerts on articles I write or the odd thought from me.
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THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS
Hover Over the Sell Button
By Malcolm Stacy
Hello Share Pals,
There is an argument, propounded by some people, that shares in the UK could soon take a tumble. We should be aware of these fears, even if we don't subscribe to the reasons for them.
Shares are still nicely priced in the UK. We keep hearing really terrible financial news - growing inflation, falling job numbers, tumbling house prices. And yet shares are not really doing so badly.
Therefore they are cruising for a bruising, some say. I don't happen to think that shares will fall badly. This is because we look to the future and the recessions felt by many Euro countries will not last for ever. They never do.
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FREE SHARE TIP OF THE DAY A report from Small Cap Wizard James Faulkner
Sareum is one of the most attractive cancer drug developers on the UK market right now (to find out my other favourite pick in the sector watch out for my weekend editorial!). Biotech outfits like this can be a very exciting ride - but they're certainly not for the faint-hearted or risk averse! Since I first tipped Sareum at 1.4p last year, the shares have taken investors on one hell of a rollercoaster ride, having almost doubled before slipping back to less than half my tipping price. However, I retain high hopes for the stock, which is now firmly back in play after the company alerted the market that it was in the final stages of negotiating a licensing deal for one of its compounds last week.
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101 WAYS TO SAVE MONEY
By Tom Winnifrith
Every week, ShareCrazy will excerpt a part of Tom Winnfrith's book 101 ways to save money in a recession.
Number 40: Invest in three plastic piggy banks (99p each at discount stores) and position them around the house
Every time you walk past, put any coin worth 20p or less into them. Do not empty until they are full. You always end up losing small change - it falls through holes in your trousers or you toss it away to a street collector.
But it adds up. My three piggy banks were emptied after eight months and yielded just under GBP120, 4 Euros and 2 US dollars. It all helps. As an aside, you might also start picking up coins you see lying on the street. There is a word for doing this which I cannot quite remember but it is surprisingly remunerative, especially in London where people appear to chuck money away with gay abandon. Of the GBP120 from my piggy banks collected in eight months, around GBP15 came from just picking up cash on the street - that is 40p a week. It may not sound a lot but it all adds up. 40p a week compounded over 20 years is GBP694.39.
Buy the book now for just GBP6.99 +postage CLICK HERE
The Week Ahead
Bovis, Persimmon, Diageo, UK GDP
Results season for the house builders is upon us, and Bovis Homes kicks it off on Monday after releasing what Peel Hunt regarded as the weakest trading statement of all the companies in the sector back in July.
Peel Hunt's beef is with Bovis's margins, which the broker thinks look set to slip below the levels seen in the second half of last year.
Peel Hunt is forecasting headline pre-tax profit of GBP14.6m, or GBP10.7m if land sale profits are excluded.
"We exclude land because of its weight: it represents 30% of pure housing profits," Peel Hunt explains.
"Bovis is trying hard to rectify a poor ROIC [return on investment capital] but we still cannot see the return being higher than 6.5% even by 2014 with the risks being more towards undershooting than beating current consensus. This must drag on valuation," argues the broker, which has a "sell" recommendation on Bovis.
Bovis's sector peer, Persimmon, follows up on Tuesday with its interims. "Attention will focus on current trade comments in our view, in order to get a feel for the sector's health ahead of the important Autumn trading season," Panmure Gordon said.
"We heard from Taylor Wimpey and Bellway a couple of weeks ago that July had perhaps been a little better than expectations with sales rates still ahead YOY [year-on-year] (though the volume of sales was much reduced due to the normal seasonal profile of sales). It will be interesting to see if August has maintained that momentum so far, so that we can get a picture of how the sector will run into September when trading becomes more important," the broker continued.
Panmure Gordon is forecasting an interim profit before tax of GBP90.9m, which is in excess of a 50% increase YOY.
Diageo steps up to the bar on Thursday with full-year figures. The market is going for sales of GBP10.75bn for the spirits distiller and Guinness brewer, and profit before tax of GBP2.94bn. Investment analysts have pencilled in an earnings per share figure of 92.1p, and a full-year divi of 44.33p.
Charles Stanley is forecasting earnings before interest, tax and amortisation of GBP3.19bn.
"Asia, Africa and Latin America are expected to have been the drivers of growth, with more subdued performances in North America and Europe. We forecast group sales to be up by 6.5% on an organic basis, driven by a mixture of volume growth and improved mix," revealed Charles Stanley's Sam Hart.
On the economic front, the stats compilers have another go on Friday at guessing what UK gross domestic product (GDP) was in the second quarter of 2012. Expectations are that GDP will have shrunk 0.5% during the quarter to a level down 0.6% year-on-year. Those figures, if correct, would represent a slight improvement on the first stab at estimating GDP, which suggested the UK economy had shrunk by an eye-watering 0.7% during the quarter, after declining by 0.3% in the first quarter.
Monday August 20
INTERIMS
Amlin, Bovis Homes Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Crystal Amber Fund Ltd.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Caterpillar Inc.
GMS
Albany Inv Trust, Indian Restaurants Group
EGMS
Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd.
AGMS
Peer TV
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
London Stock Exchange Group, Mountview Estate
Tuesday August 21
INTERIMS
Afren, Capital Drilling Ltd. (DI), Coca-Cola HBC S.A., CPP Group, Fisher (James) & Sons, Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Glencore International, H&T Group, Persimmon, Severfield-Rowen, Source BioScience, UK Commercial Property Trust, Wood Group (John)
Q2
ADC African Development Corporation GmbH
GMS
ILX Group
ANNUAL REPORT
Falkland Islands Holdings
AGMS
Falkland Islands Holdings, Goldman Sachs Dynamic Opportunities Ltd, World Trust Fund
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
Public Sector Finances (09:30)
Wednesday August 22
INTERIMS
Carillion, Clarkson, Derwent London, Elringklinger AG, Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S), Hardy Oil & Gas, Kenmare Resources, London Capital Group Holdings, Melrose Resources, office2office, Plaza Centers NV, Soco International, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, TT Electronics
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
IDOX
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BlackRock World Mining Trust, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Capital & Counties Properties , Catlin Group Ltd., CRH, Dragon Oil, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., Fidessa Group, Henderson Opportunities Trust, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Prudential, Puma VCT V, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Secure Trust Bank, St James's Place, Standard Life, Stanley Gibbons Group, Synectics, Taylor Wimpey, UBM, Witan Inv Trust, Xaar
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canaccord Financial Inc., Carnival
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Q2
Frutarom Industries Ltd GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
BHP Billiton
ANNUAL REPORT
Immofinanz AG
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
PHSC
AGMS
Aberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, Latham (James)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Halma
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Cohort, Eckoh, First Property Group, iEnergizer Ltd., NWF Group, PHSC
Thursday August 23
INTERIMS
Aegis Group, Alpha UK Multi Property Trust, AZ Electronic Materials SA (DI), Camellia, Delcam, Genel Energy, IMI, Kazakhmys, New World Resources A Shares, Petropavlovsk, Premier Oil, Salamander Energy, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Sportech, STV Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
House Price Index (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Q2
New World Resources A Shares, Signet Jewelers Ltd., Wentworth Resources Ltd (CDI)
Q4
Haynes Publishing Group
GMS
Norseman Gold
FINALS
Diageo, Haynes Publishing Group
AGMS
Aberforth Geared Income Trust, Ten Alps
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)
CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)
Friday August 24
INTERIMS
Aga Rangemaster Group, Berendsen, Good Energy Group, Henry Boot
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Edinburgh UK Tracker Trust, Microgen, Throgmorton Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Picton Property Income Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
GMS
Mouchel Group, Small Companies Dividend Trust
FINALS
Eurocommercial Properties NV
ANNUAL REPORT
Renishaw
AGMS
IRET Securities Ltd Zero Div Pref, Pathfinder Minerals , Pathfinder Minerals , Picton Property Income Ltd, Stagecoach Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (output, income & expenditure) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen New Dawn Inv Trust, AEC Education, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Latham (James), Puma VCT V, RIT Capital Partners, Volex
Link to article.
BOOK OF THE WEEK By Rodney Hobson
A book review by Luka Lukic of t1ps.com In this book Rodney Hobson aims to provide a straight forward introduction into the world of portfolio management and best practices to employ when selecting what you want to invest in. Thankfully it doesn't pretend to offer a guaranteed, one size fits all, scheme to become a millionaire, but instead attempts to compel the reader to assess what they wants to get out of their investment and then provides guidance to that end.
The book aims to explain the different behaviours of the various market sectors, and the importance of not only holding a range of shares, but diversifying them throughout the sectors to ensure a proper hedge. It also walks the reader logically through a range of factors than can, and most likely will, affect the share price and gives case studies to demonstrate the impact on real companies.
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ALTERNATIVE BET OF THE WEEK
Your local betting shop may be great for the footie, but you must go online for the truly weird bets.
This week: How will Julian Assange leave the Ecuadorian Embassy?
Singles Only. Applies to the first time he is confirmed to leave the Ecuadorian Embassy after 16th August 2012 and to the way the he makes his way out. Dead heat rules may apply.
| UK Police Car | 5/4 | | Ecuadorian state car | 7/4 | | Diplomatic bag' | 7/2 | | Helicopter | 9/2 | | Tunnel | 25/1 | | Laundry Van | 40/1 | | Hot Air Balloon | 90/1 | | Jetpack | 90/1 |
Regards,
ShareCrazy
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