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Friday, November 8, 2013

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Shanks, Rolls Royce, Bovis Homes, Quindell Portfolio and the Weekly Comp


From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 8th November 2013

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The Markets

It has emerged that the UK trade deficit increased to its highest level in just under a year in September. The UK goods trade deficit grew to 9.816 billion pounds in the month from 9.557 billion pounds in August. Economists had forecast a gap of 9.2 billion pounds. The data, coupled with new figures which suggest that the construction sector did not grow by as much as expected over the July-September quarter, could mean that the Office for National Statistics is forced to lower its original estimate for 0.8% growth over the third quarter of the year. David Kern, Chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, commented, "The UK is not doing enough to plug the export gap and rebalance our economy towards net exports."

France has had its sovereign credit rating cut by Standard and Poors by one notch from AA+ to AA in the latest set-back to impact the Eurozone's second largest economy. All three of the major rating agencies had already downgraded France from the prestigious AAA rating but Standard and Poors is the first to embark on a second downgrade. The cut reflects the agency's fears on the French government's ability to carry out important budgetary reforms amid violent protests within the country. To make matters worse for the French, data released today revealed a fall in industrial production in September, while the trade deficit also widened. Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg Bank, argued, "If France does not change tack, it condemns itself to further long-term decline."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 81.27 points at 15,675.25 and the Nasdaq was down by 32.60 points at 3,352.78.

In London the FTSE 100 closed up by 11.20 points at 6,708.42 and the FTSE 250 was down by 47.49 points at 15,342.03. The FTSE All-Share was up by 2.91 points to 3.570.33 while the FTSE AIM Index slid by 2.57 points to 811.14.

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Broker Notes

Credit Suisse cut its "outperform" recommendation to a "neutral" stance on waste management company Shanks Group (SKS), keeping its target price unchanged at 110p. The broker notes that the shares have risen by around 20% relative to the FTSE 250 index over the last 3 months and feels that they have the potential to continue this outperforming trend. The shares were down by 0.75p at 109.25p.

Barclays Capital downgraded its "overweight" recommendation to a "equal weight" outlook on satellite provider Inmarsat (ISAT), lowering its target price to 705p. The broker believes yesterday's results have exposed some risks in investing in the company. In particular Barclays cites the ongoing decline in spending by the US government, stressing that this could hamper the earnings momentum of Inmarsat. The shares fell by 18p to 677p.

Beaufort Securities initiated coverage on supermarket Morrisons (MRW) with a "buy" recommendation after the company released a trading update yesterday. The broker truly believes that the company is progressing well with its plans to develop a significant presence across the sector's key growth areas of convenience and online. Moreover, Beaufort is encouraged by the supermarket's efforts in developing its own brand presence and is also impressed with how the company grew its top line over the July-September quarter. The shares dropped by 1.7p to 278.4p.

Blue Chips

Engineer Rolls Royce (RR.) claimed that trading has been in line with expectations since July and the company subsequently expects "good growth" in underlying profit for the full year. Rolls Royce explained that its Defence Aerospace business has performed above expectations but this was partly offset by its Marine and Power systems unit not generating quite as much profit compared with original forecasts. The update comes after Deutsche Bank once again re-iterated its "sell" stance and 1,020p target price on the group last week. The shares swelled by 40p to 1,210p.

British Airways owner International Airways Group (IAG) posted a pre-tax profit of 103 million pounds for the first 9 months of 2013, a significant improvement on the 121 million pounds loss which was recorded in the prior-year period. Management explained that British Airways had benefitted from a strong London and transatlantic market as well as a 100 million euro (83.5 million pounds) revenue bounce-back from the Olympic effect last year. Meanwhile, the struggling Spanish Airline Iberia also became more profitable as the company strove to keep a tight handle on costs within the business. The shares increased by 27.9p to 376.9p.

Mid Caps

Housebuilder Bovis Homes (BVS) announced that trading since the beginning of July has been in line with expectations. In fact, Bovis revealed that it has already achieved its targeted private reservations total for 2013. Like many of its housebuilding peers, Bovis praised the impact of the government's Help to Buy Scheme, stressing that it was clearly feeding through to a more confident housing market. The shares grew by 18p to 780p.

Broker Tullet Prebon (TLPR) claimed that trading conditions have been "challenging" in recent months as traders hold back against a backdrop of relatively low volatility in the markets. As a result, revenues over the four months ended 31st October came in 9% lower than last year at 252 million pounds. Tullet also confirmed that it had opened offices in South Africa and Mexico over the period as it looks to extend its geographical reach. The shares fell by 10.6p to 307.4p.

Facilities management firm Rentokil (RTO) announced that revenues were up by 3.8% at 585.1 million pounds over the third quarter of 2013, pushing up pre-tax profits by 3.1% to 43.6 million pounds. The improvement was partly driven by the acquisition of Western Exterminator Company, which boosted the performance of the North American division. Organically, Rentokil also benefitted from "solid" performances in Asia and France. The shares were up by 2.5p at 107.2p.

Small Caps

Competition runner Best of the Best (BEST) boasted that trading over the 6 month period ended 30th October was ahead of management expectations. Online sales performed particularly well as the group traded profitably over the period and management expect this improved trend to continue over the upcoming period. Investors will now have to wait until the 13th January to see the specific figures behind this update. The shares jumped by 7p to 57.5p.

Uranium Resources (URA), the uranium exploration company, saw its pre-tax loss almost halve to $1.07 million (700,000 pounds) over the year ended 30th June as the company continued to generate no revenues. The reduction in losses came about because of a fall in administrative expenses and the impairment of certain exploration assets. Looking to next year the group said it is considering measures such as joint ventures, strategic partnerships, and mergers as a means of funding its operations. The shares plummeted by 0.275p to 0.95p.

Outsourcing group Quindell Portfolio* (QPP) announced a new contract win with CAA South Central Ontario, a Canadian insurance group with around 1.9 million customers. According to Quindell, the contract should contribute annual revenues of between C$79 million (47 million pounds) to C$237 million (141 million pounds). The deal represents the latest in a succession of agreements Quindell has entered into after recent deals were struck with the likes Renault UK, Honda UK and the RAC. The shares inched up by 0.5p to 16p.

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Gold mine developer Condor Gold (CNR) announced that the latest set of estimates on its resources in Nicaragua have seen a 43% increase in the amount gold classified as "indicated", with the total amount of gold classified in this group now standing at 1.08 million ounces. Moreover, the open-pit portion of the resource has grown by 20% to 1.14 million ounces. Management said it was happy with the upgrade but hinted that there could be even more potential to uncover in the future. The shares fell by 22p to 100p.

Architects Aukett Fitzroy Robinson (AUK) confirmed it would pay a dividend for the 2013 fiscal year, revealing it would payout 0.1p per share. The interior designers based near Kings Cross said that the dividend would be the only one for that year, which ended 30th September, with no guarantee of further payments in the future. The company said that its decision to pay a dividend was a result of its good performance over the period. The shares rose by 1.5p to 6.5p.

Protein research tool company Abcam (ABC) said that it is making "good progress" with some initiatives as it looks to maintain profitability over the medium-long term. The company said that US catalogue sales were particularly pleasing, with related revenues growing in line with expectations despite the disruption caused by last month's US government shutdown. This growth more than offset a weaker performance from within its US Custom Services business - a unit which contributes significantly less to the company's overall revenues. The shares were down by 1.25p to 482p.

* Quindell Portfolio is a corporate client of a subsidiary of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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