Tuesday 14 August 2012
QUOTE OF THE DAY
A computer lets you make more mistakes faster than any invention in human history - with the possible exceptions of handguns and tequila
- Mitch Ratcliffe
ON THE SHARECRAZY BLOG
Things are hotting up in the Middle East. There are three possible scenarios for military conflict by Christmas plus the usual wild card of a revolution. There are those who wish genocide against Israel and the useful idiots in the West who would allow this. The oil price could rocket. It is all rather grim. Where to begin?
The best bet for military action is a concerted series of air strikes by Israel on Iran. The FT reported yesterday that the Israelis wanted to start before November in order to wipe out the threat of Iran getting a nuclear bomb. The West should not be intervening in this one. That is to say we should not assist Israel but equally we should not, as we are doing now, hold her back. The nutters who run Iran would make Tel Aviv their prime target if they had a nuke (they have said as much) and so Israel has every right to bomb these wicked Islamofascists back into the stone age. Secretly, all the other Arab leaders would be delighted by such an outcome although publicly they will, of course, condemn the "wicked Jews". This has to be an Evens or better bet.
Second up is Syria where two groups of vile and evil men are battling for the right to run the country as a repellent dictatorship. Again I'd hope the West does not intervene but just lets them get on with it. The more evil men killed in the Civil war the better as the more enfeebled the winning side will be at the end of it. But the West, led by the loathsome Clinton woman, will intervene to topple Assad. What will his last throw of the dice be? Using chemical weapons on his own people or Israel? That ups the ante and could suck others into the war. The odds on the loathsome Clinton escalating this? Pretty short.
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THOUGHT FOR THE DAY
Hello Share Companions,
I think we all expected a feel-good factor, made by British success in the Olympic Games, might translate into a hike in share prices. But so far this week, it ain't happened. You just can't rely on anything in Crazyland, can you?
It seems that when we all expect something to happen, nobody acts on the feeling, and so shares are not being bought in huge quantities after all. In fact, the volume of share transactions so far this weekly session has been quite thin.
This is because the summer holidays are in full sway and a load of big dealers aren't even at their desks. But also, there could be a post party hang-over going on, now that there is nothing to see in East London. A bit of a let down, really
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THIS MORNING IN LONDON
FTSE 100
5,863.56
31.68 0.54%
FTSE 250
11,473.33
36.52 0.32%
FTSE 350
3,109.66
15.91 0.51%
FTSE All Share
3,041.10
15.34 0.51%
AIM 100
3,079.22
-4.62 -0.15%
AIM All Share
681.61
-0.78 -0.11%
11:49 am
United Utilities leads stocks higher
- UK CPI inflation rises in July
- Eurozone GDP falls in line with forecasts
- United Utilities up on takeover speculation
The Footsie had moved broadly sideways in morning trade on Tuesday, holding on to the gains made in the opening hour, as investors digested a barrage of economic data from home and away.
The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 2.6% in July - wrong-footing experts who had forecast a fall to 2.3%. The wider Retail Prices Index (RPI) rose 3.2%, up from 2.8% in June.
Second-quarter Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.2% from the previous three months (down 0.4% year-on-year), according to a 'flash' estimate by Eurostat.
German economic growth slowed down from 0.5% to 0.3% in the second quarter of 2012, but economists were expecting GDP to increase by just 0.2%. France, on the other hand, registered its third consecutive quarter of zero growth although this was still better than the 0.1% contraction that the experts were expecting.
In contrast, a key measure of sentiment in Germany missed expectations in August, it was revealed today. The German ZEW index fell to -25.5, from -19.6 in July; the consensus estimate was for a small improvement to -19.3.
Also in focus were the minutes from the latest Bank of Japan policy-setting meeting which showed that some board members wouldn't be against future policy options to combat a slowdown. It was revealed yesterday that annualised Japanese GDP increased by 1.4% in the second quarter, well below the 5.5% growth the previous quarter and under the 2.3% expansion expected.
FTSE 100: Utilities and Standard Life provide a lift
United Utilities was putting in an impressive performance today on the back of rumours that overseas investor from Canada and the Middle-Easy are eyeing up the company as a break-up candidate. Sector peers Severn Trent and Pennon were also wanted.
Life assurance behemoth Standard Life jumped as it saw profits rise in the first half after a strong performance in the UK, its biggest market. Operating profit before tax was up 15% with assets under administration 3% higher than the year before.
Anglo-Swedish drugs colossus AstraZeneca raised earnings guidance a tad after signing a deal with US pharmaceuticals titan Pfizer, pushing shares higher.
Russian steel giant Evraz advanced after saying that a strike Highveld Steel and Vanadium operations in South Africa is now over and production has been resumed.
Terrestrial broadcaster ITV gained after Nomura upgraded the stock late last night from 'neutral' to 'buy', saying that the current share price "does not reflect the significant improvements in ITV's underlying business or potential optionality."
Building materials group CRH dropped after poor weather and tough economic conditions in Europe saw earnings slip in the first half of the year. EBITDA fell 1% year-on-year in the six months to June 30th, more or less in line with the company's guidance in May of "close to last year's level".
FTSE 250: Lonmin drops after strikes and delays
Platinum group metals (PGMs) producer Lonmin was leading the fallers on the second-tier index after reporting a "serious and ongoing outbreak of violence" at its West Marikana mine operations in South Africa, killing seven Lonmin workers and two policemen.
Production has been "severely disrupted" since Friday August 10th following an illegal strike by Rock Drill Operators and increased incidences of violence and intimidation since then.
Heading the other way was Egypt-focused gold miner Centamin which has stuck with its production guidance after second quarter output hit record levels.
Scottish distribution firm John Menzies was out of favour after seeing revenues fall in the first half as the firm was hit by tough economic conditions and a weak euro.
FTSE 100 - Risers
United Utilities Group (UU.) 749.00p +8.71%
Standard Life (SL.) 273.10p +6.39%
Severn Trent (SVT) 1,768.00p +3.51%
Pennon Group (PNN) 759.50p +3.26%
Evraz (EVR) 275.20p +2.50%
Prudential (PRU) 819.50p +1.80%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 355.60p +1.60%
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) 2,283.00p +1.51%
Tesco (TSCO) 333.85p +1.44%
ITV (ITV) 84.20p +1.38%
FTSE 100 - Fallers
CRH (CRH) 1,129.00p -7.38%
Kingfisher (KGF) 284.30p -1.59%
Pearson (PSON) 1,223.00p -0.73%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 221.00p -0.63%
Wolseley (WOS) 2,433.00p -0.61%
Aviva (AV.) 321.30p -0.50%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,479.00p -0.47%
Tate & Lyle (TATE) 661.50p -0.45%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,722.00p -0.35%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,194.00p -0.30%
FTSE 250 - Risers
Savills (SVS) 383.60p +2.46%
Carpetright (CPR) 618.00p +2.32%
Galliford Try (GFRD) 624.00p +2.30%
Barr (A.G.) (BAG) 447.80p +2.21%
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MLC) 483.40p +2.20%
Henderson Group (HGG) 107.70p +2.09%
JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 680.00p +1.95%
Persimmon (PSN) 668.00p +1.83%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 183.30p +1.83%
Catlin Group Ltd. (CGL) 455.00p +1.79%
FTSE 250 - Fallers
Lonmin (LMI) 706.50p -4.66%
Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (AQP) 35.89p -3.78%
Avocet Mining (AVM) 90.10p -3.01%
Kenmare Resources (KMR) 39.35p -2.70%
Essar Energy (ESSR) 109.10p -2.50%
Menzies(John) (MNZS) 615.00p -2.38%
Daejan Holdings (DJAN) 3,105.00p -2.20%
TUI Travel (TT.) 200.80p -2.00%
Howden Joinery Group (HWDN) 142.30p -1.52%
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 398.10p -1.46%
WHAT THE BROKERS SAY
FREE SHARE TIP OF THE DAY
A report from Growth Equities & Company Research
- Ariana offers the promise of near term gold production and revenue generation couple with a considerable uplift in value that would come from a major new gold discovery in Turkey from its portfolio of licence areas and joint venture deal with Eldorado Gold.
- Flagship Red Rabbit Gold Project goes into production in 2013 but there is clearly potential for the resource inventory of this project of 448,000 ounces of gold equivalent to be significantly increased on the back of recent discoveries.
- Our valuation based on Ariana's stake in the Red Rabbit Gold Project gives a target price of 4.7p.
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THE LATEST ON THE CRAZY BOARD
The top 5 hot company threads on the Bulletin Board:
Falkland Oil & Gas -
Transense
Zoltav Resources
Fiberweb
Running trading thread
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BOOK OF THE WEEK
By Jeffrey Tennant
A book review by Aaron Padgham of t1ps.com
A brand new and exclusive tool from trading the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, the MEJT system allows traders to make predictions over future support and resistance levels based on price actions over certain points in the day. The system - whose name derives from the initials of its two creators - also defines which trends may have a staying power and which ones should retrace. MEJT is however different from most other technical analysis tools in the sense that the system only applies to the S&P; it cannot be used with other indices nor foreign exchange and commodities. As author Jeffrey Tennant writes "give the MEJT system the right environment and it blossoms".
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