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Monday, August 20, 2012

Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Amlin, Rank Group and Plant Health Care


From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 20th August 2012

The Markets

Antonis Samaras, the Prime Minister of Greece will this week hold meetings with fellow Eurozone leaders to discuss the fate of his country as a member of the 17-nation bloc. It is widely anticipated that Samaras will ask for more time for Greece to meet its highly ambitious deficit cutting targets, which will not please creditors that are expected to release a further 31.5 billion euros in loans next month to help Greece avoid bankruptcy. In the UK, mortgage lending rebounded sharply in July, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) reported, jumping by 8% to 12.7 billion pounds, the highest monthly level seen so far in 2012. Despite the improving outlook that the figure generated, the CML warned that the number should be treated with precaution and that the housing market remained relatively flat. "We look forward to the September figures when the distorting effects of the Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics should largely have worked their way through" commented Caroline Purdey of the CML.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 28.03 points at 13,247.17 and the Nasdaq was down by 4.14 points at 2,776.16.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 28.05 points to 5,824.37; the FTSE 250 finished 54.83 points behind at 11,563.27; the FTSE All-Share lost 14.72 points to 3,027.34; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 0.72 points to 681.10.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Compass Group (CPG) with an increased target price of 820p, from 785p. The broker believes that the catering company is a strong defensive stock, benefiting from high exposure to revenues from outside the UK. Panmure forecasts pre-tax profits of 1.1 billion pounds for the 2012 financial year, rising to 1.2 billion pounds in 2013. The broker added that the firm is continuing its share buyback programme, which should help to drive the price. Compass shares inched up by 4.5p to 719.5p.

Seymour Pierce initiated coverage of ViaLogy (VIY) with a "buy" rating and 5.5p target price. The oil and gas seismic imaging company recently signed three contracts with large companies, including Chevron, and the broker noted that it is in talks with others. Seymour Pierce expects these wins to significantly increase revenues over the next three years and believes the firm will reach net breakeven in the first half of the 2015 financial year. The broker forecasts ViaLogy to achieve net earnings of 2 million pounds for the full 2015 financial year. The shares were unchanged at 2.25p.

Shore Capital retained its "buy" stance for Diageo (DGE), ahead of the alcoholic drinks company's full year results release on 23rd August. The broker forecasts the Guinness brewer to report volumes of 153.9 million units, with pre-tax profits of 3 billion pounds. Shore expects growth to be driven by the emerging markets of Latin America and Asia Pacific, compensating for a weak European performance. The broker anticipates a continued shift in the sales mix, with a target of 50% emerging market exposure by 2015. Diageo shares crept up by 1.5p to 1,688p.

Blue-Chips

The banks have had the nerve to blame the Libor scandal and mis-selling of PPI on free customer current accounts. Barclays' (BARC) new chairman, David Walker has wasted no time in making himself as unpopular with the public as former chief executive Bob Diamond by suggesting that the cost of maintaining free accounts led banks to pursue illegal activities to boost profits. The suggestion that customers should be charged 15 pounds per month to maintain their accounts has already gained support from the Bank of England's executive director, Andrew Bailey, and the chairman of the Financial Services Authority, Lord Turner. Shares in Barclays slipped by 1.9p to 190.95p, Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) shares advanced by 0.21p to 34.43p, while those of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) grew by 0.1p to 231.7p

Mid-Caps

Insurance underwriter Amlin (AML) reported a pre-tax profit of 184.5 million pounds for the six months ended 30th June 2012, up from a 192.3 million pound loss in the first half of 2011. Gross written premiums rose by 19.8% to 1.8 billion pounds and the group noted that it incurred significantly lower catastrophe losses, with the claims ratio falling to 53%, from 92%. The company added that it had improved its balance sheet, with net tangible assets of 1.27 billion pounds as at 30th June, with 446.1 million pounds of headroom. The shares rose by 8p to 389.1p.

Bovis Homes (BVS) completed 944 new homes during the first half of 2012, 143 more than in 2011's comparable period, with a slightly improved average sales price of 164,400 pounds. Pre-tax profits doubled to 16.2 million pounds as the number of homes completed on new higher margin sites increased. The housebuilder voiced its support for the government's FirstBuy and NewBuy mortgage schemes, which it believes will help support the new homes market during a period where banks are reluctant to lend. Shares in Bovis lost 1.4p to 491.6p.

The Office of Fair Trading may throw the proverbial spanner in the works of Rank Group's (RNK) proposed 205 million pound acquisition of Gala Casinos. The regulatory body noted that the companies are two of the three largest casino operators in the UK and has therefore referred the deal to the Competition Commission. The OFT warned that the merger may significantly increase barriers to entry and "could result in a worse deal for consumers". We are unsure of what detrimental effects there might be for gamblers, unless Rank has plans of introducing and extra 0 on the roulette table, or a number 12 card in Blackjack. The shares dropped by 2p to 130.7p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

News that the completion of an independent scoping study at Tertiary Minerals' (TYM) 100% owned Lassedalen fluorspar project, Norway, has deemed the prospect to be commercially viable, sent shares in the firm 0.875p higher to 5.875p. At a production rate of 100,000 tonnes of acid grade fluorspar concentrate per year, the prospect could generate revenue of 325 million dollars and have a 6.6 year mine life. With annual pre-tax cash flow in excess of 25 million dollars, the directors expect Lassedalen to have a payback of 34 months.

The final well of Jubilant Energy's (JUB) seven well Phase-III drilling campaign at the Kharsang field in India, has encountered oil and has been put on initial production of 226 barrels of oil per day. This was achieved after completing wireline log interpretation, mud log shows and formation pressure testing, which identified a 3 metre oil interval at 1483 metres. A second 3 metre interval meanwhile was discovered at a depth of 1529 metres, the testing of which produced gas at flowing tube head pressure of 425 psi. Jubilant Energy shares jumped 2.5p to 21p.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), part of the World Bank Group, has confirmed its intention to make an investment in Liberia focused miner Hummingbird Resources (HUM). IFC will subscribe to a 5 million dollar, 93p per share placing, the proceeds of which will be used for the development of the Dugbe-1 gold project. Management believes the investment by IFC is a strong endorsement of the technical strengths, socio-environmental standards and economic potential of the Dugbe prospect. Hummingbird shares buzzed 10.5p higher to 79.5p.

Sticking with the mining sector, Shanta Gold (SHG) reported that operations at its gold production plant at New Luika gold mine in Tanzania have now commenced. The final pre-production stages of the process, including hot commissioning and loading of carbon and cyanide into lease tanks, has been completed, with the first gold pour on track to occur before the end of the month. Shanta has set a target to produce up to 17,500 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter of 2012, which would generate sales in the region of 28 million dollars. The group's shares closed up 3.375p at 30.875p.

Plant Health Care (PHC), the agricultural business, saw pre-tax losses narrow by 3% to 3.55 million dollars for the six months to June, despite a 0.7% decline in sales to 3.49 million dollars. Sales of its flagship Harpin and Myconate products surged by 49% in the period, although the company explained that demand for the former was understated because of partner Monsanto's inventory overhang. For the 2012 crop season, PHC expects Harpin use to exceed the 2011 total by more than 180%. The business maintained a strong cash and cash equivalent position, of 10.2 million dollars at the period end.

Operationally, the period saw PHC reach deals with ASP Chile, a subsidiary of global fertiliser company Agrium Inc, and a commercialisation agreement with Alexin, the US agriculture input distributor. Meanwhile, an additional six new Harpin products moved nearer the completion of field trials, which management is optimistic will provide customers with significant crop specific growth opportunities. The business explained that the second half of the year has started positively, and that the solid growth seen by Harpin and Myconate would extend into this period. PHC shares rose by 5p to 105p.

Shares in Asian Citrus Holdings (ACHL) closed 0.625p lower at 28p despite the Chinese orange plantation owner announcing it is not aware of any material damage to its orange trees in the Hepu plantation caused by Typhoon Kai-Tak, which hit the Hepu region last week. The group has however taken pre-cautionary measures to protect its biological assets from any further storms, via the installation of wind breaks around the plantation.

Pinnacle Technology Group (PINN) has entered into an exclusivity agreement with DVS Soft, for its secure remote access virtual desktop system, which allows users to access their laptop and desktop computers via their mobile devices. DVS has granted Pinnacle the exclusive rights to market and distribute the remote access system in the UK, as well as the majority of countries in mainland Europe. The news was enough to send Pinnacle shares 0.175p higher to 0.3575p.

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