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Friday, August 10, 2012

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Prudential, SVG Capital and Gulf Keystone Petroleum


From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 10th August 2012

The Markets

Fears over the strength of the Chinese economy were highlighted again on Friday as the world's second largest economy saw export and import growth slow for the second straight month in July. Trade data came in significantly below expectations, with exports rising just 1% from a year earlier and compared to 11.3% in June. Imports meanwhile rose 4.7% from a year earlier, compared to 6.3% in June. It is now widely expected that policy makers will introduce a stimulus package to encourage growth. Also in Asia, official statistics from India showed that industrial output fell for a third time in four months in June as global uncertainty took its toll. Manufacturing declined 1.8% from a year earlier having fallen by 2.5% in May - analysts had expected an increase of 0.4%.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 26.91 points at 13,138.28 and the Nasdaq was down by 5.93 points at 2,713.68.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 4.40 points to 5,847.11; the FTSE 250 finished 6.72 points ahead at 11,470.75; the FTSE All-Share lost 1.65 points to 3,033.58; and the FTSE AIM Index climbed by 2.52 points to 687.22.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon maintained its "sell" recommendation for Ocado (OCDO) with a target price of 50p. The broker believes that the bells are finally tolling for the online supermarket, forecasting it to breach its net debt to EBITDA bank covenant within the current year. Panmure noted that consensus forecasts put the company on a multiple of 3.2 times, very close to the covenant requirement of below 3.5 times. However, the broker added that this assumes second half revenue growth of 16.8%, while it expects to see growth of just 12.6%, pushing the critical multiple over the edge, to 4.4 times. Panmure said that the firm suffered from slow demand in the first half due to the Diamond Jubilee, and expects the Olympics to have a much larger effect. Ocado shares lost 2p to 71p.

Investec Securities retained its "buy" stance on Barclays (BARC) with a 240p target price. The bank has appointed Sir David Walker as the replacement for current chairman Marcus Agius, which the broker feels is a "politically safe" move. Investec attributed the recent price weakness entirely to reactions against the LIBOR scandal and believes that in time people will leave Barclays alone and begin investigating other banks. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on an earnings multiple of just 4.8 times for the year ending 31st December 2013. The shares gained 4.45p to 183.4p.

Shore Capital kept its "buy" rating for Harvey Nash (HVN) ahead of a trading update on 13th August, expecting the technology recruitment agency to have traded ahead of expectations. The broker said that the firm should have benefited from increased use of contracted labour, rather than permanent placements. Additionally, Shore noted that the group is opening two new offices in Asia, which should help diversify away from the challenging European market. Harvey Nash shares slipped by 0.25p to 51.25p.

Singer Capital reiterated its "buy" recommendation for IQE (IQE) with a 39p target price. The semiconductive wafer manufacturer will release interim results on 29th August and the broker said that the firm has already reported revenues in-line with forecasts. Singer noted that a number of the group's largest clients have indicated that the second half will be a strong trading period and the broker expects this to drive demand for IQE's products. The shares declined by 0.75p to 26.25p.

Blue-Chips

Prudential (PRU) reported year-on-year pre-tax profit growth of 13% for the six months ended 30th June, to 1.26 billion pounds as strong trading in the US and Asia helped compensate for a flat performance in the UK. The life insurance company believes that the Asian market offers the best opportunity for grow and aims to generate new business profit of £1.4 billion in the region in by 2013, double 2009 levels. The group also increased its interim dividend by 5.7% to 8.4p. The shares grew by 6p to 810p.

Mid-Caps

Cobham (COB) announced that it has won a 65 million dollar (41.7 million pound) contract to provide electric systems to Boeing's satellite programme. The aerospace engineer will supply 1,000 modules for the antenna array of each of three satellites, allowing them to receive and transmit communications. Work is expected to be completed in 2013 and the firm noted that there is an extension option on the contract for a further three satellites. Cobham shares edged down by 1.1p to 221.4p.

In order to gain access to markets with long-term growth characteristics, reinforced polymer manufacturer Fenner (FEN) has agreed to buy Norway and Sweden based peer Mandals, for an undisclosed sum. The target had gross assets of 9.9 million pounds as at 31st December 2011 and will be incorporated into the firm's Advanced Engineered Products division, which operates in the agricultural, infrastructure and oil & gas markets. The shares crept up by 0.6p to 385.1p.

SVG Capital (SVI) reported an 12.3% increase in its net asset value per share for the six months ended 30th June, to 378.5p. The private equity investor noted strong growth across the majority of its portfolio, particularly its investment in Hugo Boss. During the period, Valentino Fashion Group was sold, with SVG's holding worth 59 million pounds, and the firm will use the funds to deleverage its investment in Hugo Boss. The firm added that it has so far returned 87.4 million pounds of its 170 million pound commitment to shareholders since December 2011. SVG shares advanced by 4.3p to 264.8p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Bioscience firm Physiomics (PYC) has signed a new agreement with a top five pharma company, which will see it determine the optimal dosing and timing of a combination of two compounds currently under development by the customer. Physiomics confirmed the project will be performed on a fee-for-service basis. "If successful, we hope that this first project will lead to the implementation of our technology across several future projects with this customer." reported chief executive Mark Chadwick. Physiomics shares surged 0.05p to 0.1725p.

News that Media Corporation* (MDC) has made solid commercial progress in both its divisions sent shares in the digital advertising and online gaming group 0.05p higher to 0.575p. Eyeconomy, Media's advertising arm extended its exclusive agreement with Digital Sports Group for a further two years, which will see it be reappointed as the sole provider of advertisements across Digital Sport's portfolio of websites. Betting platform Inabet meanwhile has signed heads of terms with totepool.com to become one of Inabet's launch partners.

Silanis International (SNS), the e-signature technology business, confirmed on Friday that leading a financial services company has chosen to use its e-Sign Enterprise service. The un-named financial services company provides consumer loans and credit-related products to more than half a million families in the US. Silanis shares closed 1.5p ahead at 28p.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP), alongside its joint-venture partners for the Shaikan block in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, has submitted a declaration of commercial discovery to the Shaikan Block Management Committee. Management commented that the submission of the document is an important milestone for Gulf Keystone, marking the completion of the Shaikan appraisal programme and the move to development of the 'world class discovery'. The shares rose by 10.75p to 215.75p.

Digital Learning Marketplace* (DLM) finally got round to releasing its financial results for the nine months to December, unveiling sales of 901,000 pounds against 1.6 million pounds in the year to March 2011 and a pre-tax loss of 426,000 pounds versus a 156,000 pound profit against the comparable. The reported period was time of change for the company, as it changed its name from Intellego Holdings in January, with its existing business being reorganised to match its new 'buy and build' acquisition strategy. This started with the acquisition of PIXELearning and the Digital Learning Marketplace software platform earlier in the year.

The firm commented that after the year end the group was forced to increase its overheads to implement internal growth and the support of the proposed acquisition strategy, which will be funded by raising new finance. Meanwhile, DLM confirmed its results for the first half of 2012 will be affected by the changes implemented in 2011, the benefits of which will not be seen until the latter half of the year. It added, the technical challenges of developing new products and services may cause cost-overruns and product delay launches, and lead times for winning orders may be longer than expected. The company also announced a 276,567 pounds placing at 0.1p per share to strengthen its finances. Despite trading lower for much of the day, Digital Learning Marketplace shares finished 0.0125p higher at 0.675p.

The Week Ahead

Next week we look forward to full year results from agricultural specialist NWF Group (NWF), carbon fiber brakes manufacturer Surface Transforms (SCE) and iron ore miner West African Minerals (WAFM). There will be half year results from oil and gas services firm Petrofac (PFC), pension and savings provider Standard Life (SL.) and job recruitment agency Michael Page International (MPI) which is likely to have suffered from weak demand in the UK and mainland Europe. Cinema chain Cineworld (CINE) will also issue interims, which broker Canaccord Genuity expects to report growth despite the bad weather and tough comparative period which included the final Harry Potter film. There will also be interim management statements from water treatment company Pennon Group (PNN) and software developer Micro Focus Inernational (MCRO).

Competition

The UK-Analyst prize cupboard is currently bare so the Friday competition will return next week.

* Media Corporation and Digital Learning Marketplace are corporate clients of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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