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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Fed Instituting QE3? : Think Again (New Blog Posting)

Mercantile Exchange Nepal Limited



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 Post name :Fed Instituting QE3? : Think Again
 Post Contents :  
 QE3 is a monetary policy of the US which has been brought under the limelight in light of the FOMC m more.
 Posted Date: 8/1/2012 12:18:50 PM
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Personal Finance Daily: Many retirees don't know what retirement will cost

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MarketWatch
Personal Finance Daily
JULY 31, 2012

Tuesday's Personal Finance Stories

By MarketWatch

Personal Finance Daily
powered by ad choices


Don't miss these top stories:

Even though they're getting close to retiring, a full one-third of people surveyed in a recent study didn't know how much they'd need to cover their expenses in retirement. And while a top worry for this group was related to health-care expenses, many underestimated just how much of an impact inflation and taxes would have on the funding of their golden years.

Read Anna Andrianova's report on how retirement costs are confusing soon-to-be retirees.

Amy Hoak , Personal Finance writer

Retirement costs confuse soon-to-be retirees

One third of people close to retirement don't know how much money they will need to retire, according to a new survey.
Retirement costs confuse soon-to-be retirees


Five of the biggest power outages

The second massive power outage in as many days has struck Northern India, leaving hundreds of millions of people sweltering in tropical heat. Here's a look at some of the world's more notable outages over the past 50 years.
Five of the biggest power outages


Four retirement strategies for muni bonds

Your federal taxes are likely to go up, possibly as early as January. If that's the case, you should begin taking a closer look at one of the most important investments for many retirees: municipal bonds.
Four retirement strategies for muni bonds


ECONOMY AND POLITICS

U.S. home prices jump in May: Case-Shiller

U.S. home prices jumped in May, marking the second month of gains, according to a closely followed index released Tuesday.
U.S. home prices jump in May: Case-Shiller.


Expectations lead consumer confidence higher

After declining for four months, U.S. consumer confidence increased in July on improved expectations, but remained at relatively low levels, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
Expectations lead consumer confidence higher.


Congress strikes stopgap spending deal

House and Senate leaders strike a deal to fund the government for six months, a move that averts the threat of a shutdown in September.
Congress strikes stopgap spending deal


Consumer spending falls again in June

U.S. consumers reduced spending for the second straight month despite a sharp increase in wages, boosting their savings rate to the highest level in a year. The decline in spending suggests the economy will continue to grow slowly.
Consumer spending falls again in June.


SEC calls for more muni-bond disclosure

The Securities and Exchange Commission urges Congress to give the agency the power to improve disclosure standards and require audited financial statements for the $3.7 trillion municipal securities market as part of an effort to help retail investors in the market.
SEC calls for more muni-bond disclosure.


Germany returns to Realpolitik in euro crisis

Right or wrong, Europe seems trapped at this point into doing things the way Germany wants, writes Darrell Delamaide.
Germany returns to Realpolitik in euro crisis.


Living in a Catch-22 economy

The standoff between consumer spending and unemployment is just one of many paradoxes preventing a robust recovery, writes Irwin Kellner.
Living in a Catch-22 economy


INVESTING

The Real Crash is dead ahead as 2008 is forgotten

Yes, another crash is coming soon because we're back playing the same speculative games as we did for years before the 2008 crash. Nothing's changed. And when we collapse, it will be because America's leaders never do learn the lessons of history.
The Real Crash is dead ahead as 2008 is forgotten.


Facebook? UBS needs to change its status

UBS, like its American counterparts, remains dangerously exposed to risks in the securities markets.
Facebook? UBS needs to change its status.


Watch the Olympics to be better investors

What does the Olympics have to do with Wall Street? Plenty, writes Mark Hulbert, who says that in a roundabout way the Olympics can actually teach us to be better investors.
Watch the Olympics to be better investors.


LinkedIn: Boring can be beautiful

A bright light in the social-media selloff, LinkedIn's shares have stayed above the company's IPO price as the more boring social network relies less on ads. But will its high multiple lead to an eventual fall?
LinkedIn: Boring can be beautiful.


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The Tuesday Stockmarket Reporter from UK-Analyst features BP, Elementis, and Lighthouse Group


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 31st July 2012

The Markets

Stocks across Europe closed lower on Tuesday as investors used the opportunity to take profits on the back of strong gains over the past week. Following a meeting with French President Francois Hollande in Paris, Italy's Prime Minister Mario Monti said that he sees "light at the end of the tunnel" for the Eurozone. Both leaders left the meeting echoing previous comments from European policy markets that the euro would be given as much support as it needed. Over in Asia, the Indian central bank cuts its growth forecast for the country from 7.5% to 6.5%, but left interest rates unchanged at 8%. Despite growing pressure to take action to boost the slowing economy, the Reserve Bank of India explained inflation remained too high to boost money supply via a reduction in the base rate.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 10.48 points at 13,062.53 and the Nasdaq was up by 11.22 points at 2,653.34.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 58.35 points to 5,635.28; the FTSE 250 finished 102.22 points behind at 11,136.69; the FTSE All-Share lost 23.39 points to 2,933.14; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 0.99 points to 668.43.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "buy" recommendation for NetDimensions (NETD) with a 76p target price. The broker noted that the software developer's sector has seen considerable acquisition activity recently and Panmure believes that the group is an attractive takeover prospect, trading on a prospective EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.2 times for the 2013 financial year. The broker said that the firm is growing well in the Asia Pacific region and added that the company's cash position of 7.7 million dollars (4.9 million pounds), as at 30th June, is ahead of its full year forecast of 7.1 million dollars (4.5 million pounds). Shares in NetDimensions were unchanged at 29.75p.

N+1 Brewin upgraded its stance on Dialight (DIA) from "hold" to "buy" with an increased target price of 1,321p, from 988p. The broker now expects the LED manufacturer's Obstruction division to achieve 40% growth, up from 30% previously, while maintaining its 75% growth forecast for industrial lighting. The group has invested heavily in sales, with the broker noting a significant increase in staff, from 17 to 39, including a tripling of the number working in North America. The shares inched down by 2p to 1,029p.

Canaccord Genuity maintained its "buy" rating for Cineworld (CINE) with a target price of 280p. The broker believes that ticket sales in July were greater than in 2011 across the UK, despite the bad weather and a tough comparative that included "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part 2)". Canaccord noted an encouraging start to the second half, with the latest Batman and Spiderman films and added that there was a strong lineup fro the rest of the year, including the final Twilight film and the next Bond film "Skyfall". The broker also believes that the group will complete the digital roll-out in the second half. The shares slipped by 0.5p to 225.5p.

Shore Capital retained its "buy" recommendation for Greggs (GRG), ahead of interim results on 7th August. The British high street has suffered recently from the very wet weather and the broker raised concerns that the baker has also been impacted. However, the broker maintained its its 4.3% growth forecast for the first half, expecting sales to be driven by new store openings. The company plans to open 90 new outlets in the current financial year, leading the broker to expect full year growth of 6.5%. Shares in Greggs edged down by 1.5p to 515p.

Blue-Chips

The stream of bad news from BP (BP.) continued as its latest results fell short of market expectations. The oil major reported a 1.4 billion dollar (0.9 billion pounds) loss for its second quarter, ended 30th June, down from a 5.7 billion dollar (3.6 billion pounds) profit in 2011's comparable period. The firm saw production in the quarter fall by 7.4% to 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and said it expects this to fall even lower in the third quarter. The group also suffered a number of charges, including a 2.4 billion dollar (1.5 billion pound) impairment on its US shale gas assets and the suspension of its Liberty project in Alaska. The shares leaked 19.4p to 425.05p.

Weir Group (WEIR) reported a 27% rise in first half adjusted pre-tax profits to 226 million pounds, on revenues of 1.3 billion pounds, up 29% year-on-year. Total orders for the engineering company rose 8% to 1.3 billion pounds, but investors were concerned over a 7% decline in orders for the firm's Oil & Gas division. The group noted that companies in North America were switching from gas to liquids extraction and added that equipment wear life increased due to lower pressure basins. The business revised its full year pre-tax profit target for the division to between 440 and 460 million pounds, with the lower end reflecting no improvement on the second quarter performance. Weir shares tumbled by 49p to 1,655p.

Mexico focused precious metals miner Fresnillo (FRES) suffered from a 13.3% fall in its realised sliver price to 30.97 dollars (19.7 pounds) per ounce, resulting in pre-tax profits for the six months ended 30th June falling 22.3% on 2011's comparable period, to 603.3 million dollars (384.0 million pounds). However, the group did achieve record gold production of 248,795 ounces, up 20.5% as it started production at the Noche Buena mine and completed the ramp up at Saucito. The shares crept up by 3p to 1,456p.

Mid-Caps

Shares in Elementis (ELM) jumped by 10.5p to 210.5p after it announced the introduction of a special dividend programme to return up to 50% of its year-end net cash to shareholders. The specialty chemicals group enjoyed a strong first half, with pre-tax profits rising 12% to 79 million dollars (50.3 million pounds), benefiting from reduced operating costs. The high level of cash generation resulted in Elementis finishing the period with a net cash position of 29.9 million dollars (19.0 million pounds) compared to a net debt position of 54.4 million dollars (34.6 million pounds) at the same time in 2011.

Devro (DVO) reported adjusted pre-tax profits of 20.2 million pounds for the six months ended 30th June, up 5.7% on 2011's comparable performance, with revenues rising 7.7% to 115.4 million pounds. The sausage casing manufacturer attributed the results to strong performances in the emerging markets of Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America, while sales in the UK and Ireland declined. The shares declined by 9.6p to 291p.

Precious gem miner Petra Diamonds (PDL) saw production rise by 98% over the year ended 30th June, to 2.2 million carats, driven by the acquisition of the Finsch mine in September 2011 and beating its original target of 2 million carats. However, revenues were impacted by weaker diamond prices, resulting in growth of just 44% to 316.9 million dollars (201.7 million pounds). Separately, the group announce plans to sell its fissure mine operations in South Africa in order to focus on its core assets, such as the Williamson project. Shares in Petra descended 7p to 120p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Lighthouse Group (LGT) shareholders combined forces at a general meeting on Tuesday, voting against the board's proposal to cancel the financial advisor's admission to trading on AIM. 53.17% of votes were registered against the cancellation, with chairman David Hickey commenting "looking forward the group will continue to comply with the AIM rules, and the board will continue to shareholders' preferences." Lighthouse shares surged 0.875p to 4.25p.

Metalrax Group (MRX) was forced to concede that Morrisons supermarket will not be renewing its consumer durables supply agreement with the specialist engineering and durables products company, sending its shares 0.875p lower to 5.625p. The contract relates to the ongoing supply by George Wilkinson of bakeware to Morrisons, the contract representing approximately 3% of Metalrax's annual revenue.

West Africa focused Stellar Diamonds (STEL) has renewed its exploration licence over the Tongo kimberlite dyke project via the Ministry of Minerals Resources of Sierra Leone. The Tongo prospect, host to four diamondiferous kimberlite dykes, has a current inferred resource of 660,000 carats, and with the licence for the site renewed, Stellar can focus on increasing this estimate. The firm added that discussions continued with the Ministry of Mines concerning the renewal of the Kono licence. Stellar shares jumped 0.25p to 3.125p.

Healthcare enterprise business Circle Holdings (CIRC) has completed the construction of a hospital in Reading on time and on budget, the 60 million pound building set to open on Wednesday. Commencement of construction work for Circle's second new-build hospital started in January 2011, the centre boasting 5 state of the art digital operating theatres, 50 patient beds and 130 car park spaces. Circle shares rose 3.5p to 80.5p.

Metals Exploration (MTL) announced it has obtained commitments to raise approximately 25 million dollars via the issue of shares at 13p, a premium of 52% to the pre-announcement share price. The company has also agreed with Solomon Capital for the provision of loan facilities totalling 105 million dollars, which will be used together with the equity placing proceeds to complete the construction of the mine at its Runruno project in the Philippines. Metals Exploration shares closed 1.125p ahead at 9.625p.

News that the board of IndigoVision (IND) expects revenue for the year to July to be not less than 30 million pounds sent shares in the video security surveillance business 22.5p higher to 345p. This, as well as an improvement in margins compared with the previous year means the firm expects operating profits to come in at a minimum of 2.6 million pounds, double that reported in 2011. The board commented that a recovery in performance "happened somewhat faster than we expected a few months ago, and is directly attributable to the energy and effort being put in by the management team".

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| 07.31.12 | Weill vs. Dimon battle continues

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July 31, 2012
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Today's Top Stories
1. Mike Mayo: Morgan Stanley worth more broken up
2. Weill vs. Dimon battle continues
3. Sandy Weill gets trashed
4. Libor private litigation flood coming soon
5. Bank of America reasserts itself in mortgage market

Also Noted: Spotlight On... JPMorgan bankers head to boutiques
Morgan Stanley rearranges brokerage and much more...

News From the Fierce Network:
1. HSBC confronts scandals
2. Bankers stand trial for bond contract manipulation
3. New laws could change the role of compliance officers


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Today's Top News

1. Mike Mayo: Morgan Stanley worth more broken up

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Even before the Sandy Weill flap, I noted that more people are calling for big banks to consider break-ups to unlock shareholder value.

Some institutions may be getting antsy at the lack of progress, and looking into the future, new regulations and economic uncertainty seem to be concluding that break-ups are the only real option. Even former Morgan Stanley CEO Philip Purcell has put forward his view that breaking up the banks would be better for shareholders.

More analysts are also thinking in similar terms. A great example is the outspoken Mike Mayo, analyst at CLSA, and well-known bete noire to bank CEOs.

On Bloomberg TV, he said that "This is not a tough call. If you break up the big banks, at least in the case of Morgan Stanley, I think investors would be huge winners. I hope they can achieve this value on their own without a breakup, but they don't have forever." Short-sellers, he said, would be "blown to Neptune."

Mayo thinks a break up could make the company worth $32 a share. He also said Bank of America and Citigroup would do right by shareholders if they were to break up.

This is an issue that bank directors cannot dismiss. At this point, they would be wise to pay heed to long-suffering shareholders and make the determination as to what will unlock the most value. This is why board members are so well paid.

For more:
- here's the article

Related articles:
Columnist blasts Weill over comments
Bank breakup idea looms

Read more about: banks, break up
back to top


This week's sponsor is MforMobile.


2. Weill vs. Dimon battle continues

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and his former mentor Sanford "Sandy" Weill have a long and tortured history.

They once ran Citigroup almost in tandem, controversially building it into a supermarket that Weill now regards with skepticism. But in 1998, in the wake of the famed Citigroup and Travelers merger, Weill fired Dimon. At the time, it was a shocking move. The dispute was multifaceted.

Some think that Dimon's rough executive treatment of Weill's daughter played a role in Weill's decision, while others think Weill had concluded that Dimon had grown too big for his britches. In any case, it's tempting to think that Weill may be enjoying what some might call light revenge right now, as he basks in the publicity over his pronouncement that bank shareholders might benefit from bank break-ups. That talk has colored the public discussion about JPMorgan's executive shake-up, which some see as a nod toward the pro-break-up crowd.

Certainly, JPMorgan has not been immune from the break-up chatter, a chatter that has intensified thanks to Weill. Deal Journal notes that, "The idea of splitting J.P. Morgan has been, and will continue to be, bandied about, particularly in the wake of the bank's $5.8 billion trading losses this year, which raised questions about being too big to manage. Today's moves, some analysts say, show the split could work." 

One analyst was quoted as saying,  "Given the recent rhetoric on the industry in and JPM in particular, we believe this (the executive shifts) could help fuel the speculation that some of the larger banks may look to more formally separate their consumer and investment banking operations."

For more:
- here's the article

Related articles:
What to make of JPMorgan's shake-up
Weill looks at the ash heap of Citigroup

 

 

Read more about: JPMorgan Chase, Bank break ups
back to top



3. Sandy Weill gets trashed

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

While Sanford "Sandy" Weill has made huge headlines and generated lots of controversy for his about-face on bank conglomerates, he has unfortunately opened himself up to lots of criticism.

Some say that his reversal is no big deal---all he did was change his mind.

"For some reason, the pundits are all 'shocked, shocked!' that someone might draw from experience and observation to change one's mind," says one observer. But others have parsed his words and turned them against him, reliving some old wars.

One pundit writes: "But what was most eye-catching was Mr. Weill's claim that the conglomerate model 'was right for that time.' Nothing could be further from the truth. Mr. Weill's original business concept — the justification of financial conglomeration — was to provide one-stop shopping to any and all customers. This could now include clients for investment banking, stock research, brokerage and insurance. Then, with the 1998 merger of his Travelers Group with Citicorp, it could include savers, business borrowers and credit card users, too. But few, even among his own executives, ever believed the strategy would work."

The piece goes on to list a familiar litany of wrongs committed by the bank. This is an interesting point, and Weill would add to the debate if he were to publish a piece that explores why the idea of a break-up was less relevant when he was in charge, as a way to inform the current debate.

For more:
- here's the article

Related articles:
Columnist blasts Weill over comments
Sandford Weill: Break up banks

 

Read more about: Bank break ups
back to top



4. Libor private litigation flood coming soon

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Has the private litigation flood started against bank implicated in the great Libor scandal?

If it hasn't, it won't be long.

Bloomberg reports that Berkshire Bank, a small New York lender, has sued 21 banks including Bank of America, Barclays, and Citigroup for damages over the alleged manipulation of the interbank offered rate. Berkshire seeks "undisclosed compensation and punitive damages" and the right to represent other lenders in a class action.

According to the complaint, "Tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars of loans are originated or sold within this state each year with rates tied to USD Libor…"  

Berkshire Bank said also that New York-based institutions "were unable to collect the full measure of interest income to which they were entitled."  

The extent of the ultimate damage will be of prime concern to analysts and investors, who in general still do not have a firm grasp of the potential costs. Morgan Stanley analysts were among the first to come forward with loss estimates. In terms of settlements with prosecutors and private litigants, the costs would appear to be highest for Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland, at about $1.1 billion each over two years, and Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, at nearly $1.0 billion each.

Those estimates could easily change. It really depends on who comes out of the woodwork as a plaintiff. The likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, for example, must be mulling their options as potential plaintiffs.  There may be some novel claims from across the securities spectrum, as many were tied to the rate.

For more:
- here's the article on Berkshire Bank 

Related articles:
LIBOR suit threat from small banks
Criminal charges pending in LIBOR scandal

Read more about: LIBOR, LIBOR Scandal
back to top



5. Bank of America reasserts itself in mortgage market

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

The new king of the mortgage market remains Wells Fargo, which controlled 32.4 percent of the origination market in the second quarter, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, as noted by Reuters.

That compares with 33.9 percent in the first quarter, and there's no point making much out of the slippage over a single quarter. But it is interesting to note that Bank of America seems to have awakened a bit amid the refinancing activity. Bank of America fell to fourth place from second place "deciding last year to stop buying loans from smaller banks and mortgage companies, which is known as correspondent lending. But in the second quarter it showed the biggest increase in new loans, more than 18 percent."

In the second quarter, Bank of America funded $18.9 billion in residential home loans and home equity loans, compared to $16.0 billion in the first quarter of 2012 and $19.6 billion in the second quarter of 2011, excluding correspondent originations. The number of 60 or more day delinquent first mortgage loans serviced by Legacy Assets and Servicing declined to 1.06 million loans at the end of the second quarter from 1.09 million at the end of the first quarter and 1.28 million at the end of the second quarter of 2011. Bank of America also added loan officers in the quarter.

The bank seems on reasserting itself. The financing environment is strong right now, and there's been an uptick in activity at many banks.

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Related articles:
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