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Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Wednesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Old Mutual, United Drug and Northcote Energy



From UK-Analyst.com: Wednesday 7th August 2013

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The Markets

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England (BoE) has stressed that he will not oversee an increase in interest rates until the unemployment rate has fallen to 7% - 0.8 percentage points lower than the current rate of 7.8%. The plans - which were released as part of the Bank's new "forward guidance" on interest policies - will be welcomed by businesses and homeowners, who can continue to borrow at record low rates for the short-term future at least. The bank forecasts unemployment to remain above 7% until the later part of 2016, while the financial markets had been pricing in an interest rate rise in the second half of 2015. Subsequently, the pound fell by nearly a cent against the dollar as the prospect of interest rises became more distant. Capital Economics Chief UK Economist Vicky Redwood said: "Although financial markets already expected rates to stay low for a long time, this probably exceeds their expectations."

Industrial production in Germany increased in June according to new figures released by the Economy Ministry in Berlin. German industrial output rose by 2.4% in June, representing a strong rebound from the 0.8% monthly drop in May. The data will add further fuel to the fire of economic expectation for the European powerhouse, with many economists looking to the Germans to drag the continent out of the doldrums. A breakdown of the figures revealed that capital goods production increased by 4.1%, while consumer goods production was up by 1.1% over the period. Postbank analyst Heinrich Bayer commented, "It's an outright surprise to me, too. All the more so since there had been fears that the June floods in Germany would negatively impact production levels."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 79.48 points at 15,439.26 and the Nasdaq slipped by 20.15 points to 3,102.05.

In London the FTSE 100 was down by 93.00 points at 6,511.21 and the FTSE 250 fell by 145.05 points to 14,970.05. The FTSE All-Share slid by 43.05 points to 3,467.97, while the FTSE AIM Index was down by 1.26 points at 727.86.

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Broker Notes

Beaufort Securities stuck with its "buy" stance on insurers Legal and General (LGEN) after what the broker considered to be "strong numbers" released yesterday. The broker is encouraged by management's 22% hike in the dividend and feels that it is indicative of their bullish view on the future. This, combined with the upside potential offered through recent lucrative acquisitions, gives Beaufort confidence in the future prospects of the company. The shares were down by 2.4p at 199.5p.

Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its "buy" recommendation on property group LondonMetric Property (LMP) with a target price of 128p. The broker feels that LondonMetric has the resources and execution capability to restructure its real estate portfolio and secure attractive double digit geared income returns. Moreover, given the transactional and economic evidence indicating greater demand for quality real estate outside London, Cantor feels that LondonMetric is well placed to benefit from capital appreciation as well as the attractive income return. The shares were down by 0.7p at 116.2p.

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on miner Antofagasta (ANTO) with a target price of 1,035p. The broker believes that Antofagasta offers a combination of relatively low cost copper production along with steady volume growth from a slate of projects over the next few years. Furthermore, Canaccord feels that the miners' healthy net cash position means that it can invest in growth projects while also maintaining its 35% payout ratio. The shares fell by 5p to 844.5p.

Blue-Chips

Tour operator Tui Travel (TT.) announced that its underlying operating profit for the three months ended 30th June was up by 18% at 87 million pounds. The company attributed its success to its ability to offer "unique holiday experiences" and a business model which minimises the impact of geo-political events such as strike action. As a result of this improvement, the group claims that it remains on target to achieve full year underlying operating profit growth of at least 10%. The shares dropped by 20.7p to 380.8p.

Investment group Old Mutual (OML) posted a 14% growth in operating profit to 801 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th June as funds under management nudged ahead by 9% to 289.3 billion pounds. The improvement was driven by good growth from its emerging markets business as well as its US asset management division. These two factors combined to offset "a challenging economic environment" for the South African business which, like many global markets, suffered on expectations that the U.S. would soon bring quantitative easing to an end. The shares swelled by 5.6p to 198p.

Randgold Resources (RRS) conceded that the 17% fall in the average gold price had dragged profits down by 34% to $54.1 million (34.9 million pounds) in the June quarter despite initiatives to adapt to a lower-gold price operating environment. The firm also admitted that gold sales were also negatively affected by the higher gold on hand, particularly at its Tongon project, following a temporary change in the export approval process at quarter end which resulted in a higher level of gold produced but unsold. In response to the update, Morgan Stanley stuck with its "overweight" recommendation and 4,900p target price. The shares decreased by 62p to 4,366p.

Mid Caps

United Drug (UDG), the provider of healthcare services, said that group revenues and profits for the nine months ended 30th June will come in ahead of the corresponding period last year. United Drug explained that its operations in the US have performed strongly over the period, with an increasing amount of its healthcare clients using the range of its outsourced services. Looking ahead, United Drug said that current levels of volume growth in its packaging business will accelerate on the back of a requirement for all US and European prescription medicines to carry a unique serialisation number on their packaging by 2017. The shares slid by 14.2p to 343.7p.

Iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO) reported first half profits of $244 million (157.46 million pounds), in line with last year's levels and consistent with analyst expectations. Ferrexpo argued that the results were a manifestation of increased production and lower selling prices as commodity prices continue to be volatile. Shares in the Ukrainian firm have fallen by a staggering 35% this year in a slump blamed on a slowdown in China - the primary customer for Ferrexpo's output. The shares climbed by 21.6p to 185p.

Property group Grainger (GRI) has reduced its debt to 985 million pounds, delivering on its target of debt reduction to a level below 1 billion pounds well ahead of schedule. Grainger has been able to do this as it has harnessed the current positive sentiment in the UK housing market, with group sales increasing from 202.1 million pounds to 258.7 million pounds in the ten months to July. The firm also argued that trading within the rental business is progressing well, boosted by the continued strength of demand in the south east. The shares nudged ahead by 1.2p to 184p.

Small Caps

Medical group Cyprotex (CRX) announced a 22.3% increase in revenues to 4.55 million pounds for the 6 months ended 30th June, swinging the company into an operating profit of 317,000 pounds after it generated a loss of 189,000 pounds for the corresponding period in 2012. The firm - which specialises in providing accurate data to drug development companies - said that the improvement was driven by new business from all geographical territories with deals signed with 78 new customers over the 6 months. The shares grew by 0.875p to 6.75p.

TV production group UBC Media (UBC) confirmed that it has been selected by BSkyB to provide a series of 7 programmes depicting the history of the Bolshoi Ballet. The first programme under this new deal will be aired on the Sky Arts channel this Sunday to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Bolshoi's first performances in London. The financial details of the arrangement were not disclosed to the market. The shares swelled by 0.25p to 2.625p.

European oil and gas explorer Ascent Resources (AST) announced that it has agreed to fully dispose of its M10a & M11 Terschelling-Noord Netherlands Exploration Licences to Tulip Oil for a total cash consideration of up to 450,000 euros (290,400 pounds). Under the agreement, Ascent has the right to re-purchase a 10% interest in each of the licences once Tulip has made a final investment decision with respect to the commercial development. The shares ascended by 0.05p to 0.75p.

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Motive Television (MTV), a specialist in mobile television, declared that its Dublin-based television content production business has signed three new production contracts worth a combined 300,000 pounds. The new projects will involve programmes on subjects ranging from life in prison to the world of golf. The update comes after the firm recently confirmed that its half-year numbers were likely to be in line with expectations. The shares ticked upwards by 0.001p to 0.013p.

Onshore oil and gas exploration group Northcote Energy (NCT) has already met its 2013 production targets after its Oklahoma operations achieved net production of 100 Barrels of Oil Equivalent Per Day (BOEPD) in July. Northcote has now upped its production targets to 250 BOEPD by the 31st July next year, anticipating production uplifts from its Big Hill, Horizon and Bird Creek projects. The programme to achieve this is fully funded but depends on positive fracking results from the aforementioned projects. The shares ended the day back at square one at 1.3p.

Image technology group OMG (OMG) revealed that its highways technology arm, Yotta DCL, has secured a contract to provide surveys for Carillion on the M40, worth 375,000 pounds. Under the terms of the deal, Yotta will undertake studies with an emphasis on road properties such as skid resistance and road strength. The survey will cover the maintenance of 350km of carriageway and slip roads running between Junction 1 and Junction 15 of the M40. The shares increased by 2.25p to 32p.

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