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Thursday, August 29, 2013

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Vodafone, Evraz and Probability


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 29th August 2013

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The Markets

Revised figures from the US Chamber of Commerce revealed that the world's largest economy grew by a more than expected 2.5% over the April-June quarter. The government had initially estimated that GDP expanded by 1.7%. The rise was boosted by a significant surge in exports over the period, which will fuel speculation that the US Federal Reserve will taper its asset buying programme sooner rather than later. In a further piece of positive data, it emerged that the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week, a potential sign of faster hiring in August. Scott Brown, an economist at Raymond James argued, "The market will take (the data as a sign that) tapering would be more likely next month."

Here in the UK, a study by the SME Finance Monitor revealed that over half of smaller companies expect to grow over the next 12 months. According to the study, 51% of small and medium-sized companies expect to grow over the next year, up on the last quarterly reading of 48%. The survey also found 44% of SMEs had accessed external finance in the second quarter, up from 39% in the previous three months, an increase driven by businesses turning to a wider variety of financing sources as the use of core bank products such as loans, overdrafts and credit cards remained flat. Anthony Browne, Chief Executive of the British Bankers' Association (BBA), said, "The survey shows that business confidence in the economy remains the biggest obstacle to growth for British businesses but hopefully this will start to improve if the economic indicators continue to get better."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 87.39 points at 14,911.90 and the Nasdaq grew by 35.90 points to 3,108.07

In London the FTSE 100 was up by 52.99 points at 6,483.05 and the FTSE 250 increased by 110.04 points to 14,735.80. The FTSE All-Share was up by 27.28 points at 3,445.26 while the FTSE AIM Index grew by 3.85 points to 753.57.

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Broker Notes

N+1 Singer stuck with its "buy" recommendation on financial services firm IFG Group (IFP), with a target price of 130p. The broker notes IFG Group's investment over H1 and feels this will allow the business to maintain a rate of new customer acquisitions, which is key to growing recurring income. Moreover, N+1 feels that once necessary cost investment has been completed, IFG has the potential to deliver strong earnings growth. The shares slipped by 2.75p to 110p.

Shore Capital stuck with its "buy" recommendation on recruiters Hays (HAS), after it delivered preliminary results in line with expectations. The broker notes that the firm's UK operations returned to profitability over the period. This turnaround in fortunes, coupled with the improvement in client confidence in certain regional markets and a substantial reduction in net debt gives Shore Capital further encouragement on the future prospects of the group. The shares fell by 0.5p to 101.8p.

Investec stuck with its "buy" recommendation on engineering firm Weir Group (WEIR), increasing its target price from 2,340p to 2,390p. The broker has implemented modest upward revisions to its divisional revenue and margin assumptions on the back of updated management guidance. Furthermore, Investec's recent re-rating of Weir's global peer group results in the target price increase which implies 14% upside. The shares grew by 17p to 2,207p. .

Blue-Chips

Telecoms giant Vodafone (VOD) confirmed the validity of recent press speculation hinting at the disposal of its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless. According to Vodafone, it is "in discussions with Verizon Communications Inc. regarding the possible disposal of Vodafone's US group whose principal asset is its 45% interest in Verizon Wireless." This development follows reports earlier in the year that Verizon was looking to buy Vodafone's stake in Verizon Wireless for around 64.5 billion pounds. If the deal were to go through, it would rank amongst the largest corporate transactions of all time - the biggest being AOL's purchase of Time Warner back in 2000 for $167.7 billion (108.22 billion pounds) . The shares surged by 14.65p to 204.75p.

Melrose (MRO), the turnaround specialists of engineering businesses, revealed that revenues more than doubled to 1.02 billion pounds for the 6 months ended 30th June, while pre-tax profits were up from 65.9 million pounds to 139.4 million pounds. Melrose explained that the bulk of this improvement was driven by the acquisition of Elster - which makes meters for measuring gas, water and electricity consumption - in a deal which was completed last August. The update prompted brokers Investec and Liberum Capital to retain their "buy" recommendations on the company. The shares jumped by 16.8p to 301.8p.

Outsourcing group Serco (SRP) saw adjusted pre-tax profits grow by 10.5% to 127.1 million pounds for the six months ended 30th June, on an 11.8% increase in revenues to 2.548 billion pounds. However, these decent results were overshadowed by faults with its prisoner escort services, a development which could see Serco being excluded from future government work. Serco has admitted recording prisoners as being delivered ready for court, when in fact they were not ready at all. In response, Serco has said it will repay profits on the contract for transfers in London and East Anglia since 2011 - about 2 million pounds. The shares dived by 71p to 538.5p.

Mid Caps

Energy services group Hunting (HTG), saw a 2.7% fall in underlying EBITDA to 75.6 million pounds for the six months ended 30th June, while revenues inched up by 4.3%. Hunting explained that profitability was affected by poor weather in Canada earlier on in the year, which hit margins and delayed operations. However, the group - which provides equipment for drilling oil wells - insisted that a surge in drilling onshore the United States and the Gulf of Mexico would see a recovery in the second half of the year. The shares were down by 36.5p at 831.5p.

Evraz (EVR), the Russian-steelmaker which is partly owned by Chelsea owner Roman Abromovich, conceded that EBITDA over the first half of 2013 had fallen by 21% to $939 million (606 million pounds). The firm attributed the loss to a weakening in the steel price over the period. As a result of this fall in profitability, Evraz revealed that it would not be paying a first half dividend. However, on a conference call with analysts, Chief Executive Alexander Frotov said it may authorise a payout to shareholders following the sale of its South African and Czech assets. The shares increased by 9.3p to 134p.

Bus and coach operator Stagecoach (SGC) revealed that there was a 6.5% surge in sales across its UK rail division in the 12 weeks ended 21st July, while its US operations delivered 5.7% growth over the period. This growth in the US was boosted by its megabus.com business which is the fastest growing part of the group. Broker Investec increased its target price from 320p to 325p on the back of the update, re-iterating its "add" recommendation on the shares, which swelled by 20.4p to 327.8p.

Small Caps

Mineral explorer Rare Earth Minerals (REM), confirmed that the first 10 diamond drill holes at the Fleur-El Sauz Lithium Project in northern Mexico is target at an estimated 782,000 tonnes of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent at a cut-off of 1,000 ppm Li. Once REM ups its stake in the project up to 30%, the group will oversee 178,200 tonnes and 534,600 tonnes LCE respectively. Rare Earth Minerals goes on to argue that, at current Lithium prices of $5,000 to $6,000 per tonne, this resource estimate "provides a potentially significant in-ground value." The shares grew by 0.28p to 1.25p.

Communications business Vislink (VLK) has acquired Amplifier Technology in a deal worth 4 million pounds. The acquired company designs and manufactures amplifiers used in the defence, law enforcement, security, industrial and scientific sectors. Vislink explained that the transaction is in line with its strategy of enhancing its product range in homeland security and defence markets. Over the last three years, Amplifier Technology has consistently been profitable and generated revenues of 4.4 million in the year ended 30th June 2012, with an EBITDA of 1.1 million pounds. The shares were up by 5.125p to 42.875p.

Field management firm Service Power Technologies (SVR), announced that it has executed an expanded contract for its ServiceOperations software with a "leading international insurance organisation." According to SVR, the contract will help the customer to better assist its retail clients in managing warranty claims, across different product categories. The Stockport-based firm said that the agreement was likely to generate around 1 million pounds in revenues over the net 5 years. The shares inched upwards by 0.25p to 4.5p.

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Universe Group (UNG), the loyalty systems provider, has appointed Jeremy Lewis as Chief Executive Officer in a move which will become effective from the 23rd September. Lewis has experience in leading technology companies and has a degree in engineering from Imperial College, London. Current CEO, Stephen McLeod, has led the firm over the last two years but has decided to leave "to pursue other projects." The shares increased by 0.125p to 4.75p.

MCB Finance, (MCRB), the provider of personal finance in Finland, Estonia and Latvia, swung into a pre-tax loss of 74,000 pounds for the three months ended 30th June, after it generated a pre-tax profit of 277,400 for the corresponding period in 2012. These losses include the impact of the incorporation of new businesses, a trend which management insisted would begin to reverse over the second half of the year, as it expects its online sales financing businesses to move towards profitability over the period. The shares slipped by 13.5p to 68p.

Online gaming group Probability (PBTY), has launched a new mobile slot game, which gives players the chance to win 20,000 pounds from one spin. The game is called "Mayan Moola" and is marketed as an adventure in the Mayan civilization, giving first time players one hundred ways to win. Probability operates the popular "LadyLucks" gambling brand and operates a white label service for corporate partners such as Paddy Power and William Hill. The shares were down by 0.5p at 38p.

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