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Monday, August 19, 2013

Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring AMEC, Kentz and Cristiano Ronaldo


From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 19th August 2013

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The Markets

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) increased its forecasts for UK economic growth for 2013 and 2014, based on the premise of a projected rise in the public's disposable income and a hike in investment income. The CBI increased its forecast for UK economic growth for 2013 from 1% to 1.2% and upgraded its prediction on 2014 economic growth from 2% to 2.3%. The upgraded forecast for 2013 represents double the expansion pace predicted by George Osborne in his March budget. However, the CBI did warn that the government's plans to rebalance the economy away from consumption is taking longer than initially anticipated. John Cridland, the CBI's Director General, commented, "The economy has started to gain momentum and confidence is picking up, but it's still early days. We need to see a full-blown rebalancing of our economy, with stronger business investment and trade before we can call a sustainable recovery."

Over in Asia, Thailand's economy slipped into recession during the second quarter of the year, bringing to an end a strong period of growth. According to government data, the nation's gross domestic product slipped by 0.3% over the April-June quarter, in a fall which came as a big surprise to analysts, who were expecting a continuation of growth of the like exhibited in 2012 - a year which saw the Thai economy grow by 6%. It is thought that the contraction was driven by delays in government spending and a slowdown in China which has impacted the demand for exports. Kozo Hasegawa, a Bangkok-based foreign-exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, explained, "Exports have remained weak, while domestic demand is also weakening, and the infrastructure spending plan is also delayed. The outlook for the economy is more severe now."

Staying in Asia, Japanese exports grew at their fastest pace in almost three years in July as the benefits of a weakening Yen fed through to last month's monthly trade figures. A breakdown of the figures revealed that the increase in exports was boosted by a hike in demand for the country's cars and electronics from the US. However, despite this increase in exports, the world's third largest economy saw its trade deficit increase to 1.02 trillion yen (6.72 billion pounds) as the softening of the yen made energy imports more expensive for the Japanese. Yoshiki Shinke, Chief Economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo, said, "As a trend, exports are recovering and will keep growing because the positive effect of the weak yen will strengthen in coming months."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 8.79 points at 15,072.8 and the Nasdaq grew by 30.64 points to 3,083.99.

In London the FTSE 100 was down by 34.26 points at 6,465.73 and the FTSE 250 was up by 30.64 points at 14,865.21. The FTSE All-Share was down by 13.82 points at 3,442.20 while the FTSE AIM Index inched up by 1.61 points to to 750.52.

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Broker Notes

Canaccord Genuity stuck with its "buy" recommendation on outsourcers Quindell Portfolio* (QPP) with a target price of 41p. The broker is impressed with today's interim results which show that the group continues to "progress on multiple fronts" with the broker particularly encouraged with the group's 33% EBITDA margin. Canaccord feels that Quindell's run-rate will further improve in the short-medium term and points to the current strong sales pipeline and very high historical win rate as justification for this. The shares slipped by 0.875p to 12.25p.

Northland Capital maintained its "buy" recommendation on oil exploration group Magnolia Petroleum (MAGP) with a target price of 4.6p. The broker notes that the explorer has increased its net revenue interests in three wells targeting the Woodford formation in the US. The broker is impressed with this move and expects the share price to reflect this "exciting discovery" as evidence of the increased level of revenue filters through from these larger interests. The shares inched up by 0.13p to 2.48p.

Beaufort Securities stuck with its "speculative buy" recommendation on oil exploration firm Range Resources (RRL), despite the recent weakness in share price. The broker is excited about the anticipated merger with International Petroleum, which has total prospective resources of 761 mmbbls of oil and 157 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas, as it is will provide a major boost to its existing resource base. Considering this, and recent upgrades in restricted flow rates from Atzam #4 Well in Guatemalan project, Beaufort sees strong future prospects for the company. The shares were down by 0.03p at 2.35p.

Blue-Chips

Engineering consultancy Amec (AMEC) confirmed that it has made a preliminary approach to acquire oil and gas services group Kentz Corporation at a price of "565 to 580 pence per share", a substantial premium to Friday's closing price of 475p per share. Management argues that the purchase would both diversify the firm geographically and in terms of what services it offers within its key energy markets. Amec must now decide whether or not to submit a formal offer before the 16th September under City takeover rules.

The approach was rejected by the board of Kentz (KENZ) which argued that it is in a position to  “create further shareholder value as a standalone entity”. Amec management, on the other hand,  argues that the purchase would both diversify the firm geographically and in terms of what services it offers within its key energy markets. Amec must now decide to submit a formal offer before the 16th September under city takeover rules. AMEC shares grew by 1p to 1,085p, while Kentz shares surged by 115.1p to 591p.

Retailer Tesco (TSCO) has been left red-faced after being fined 300,000 pounds over misleading customers over the price of strawberries. The case came about after a customer complained that a punnet of strawberries which was marked up as half price at 1.99 pounds, had never been priced at the 3.99 pounds which Tesco claimed they had been. Birmingham City Council argued that this offer, as well as an accompanying promotion on cream, misled or was likely to deceive the average consumer. The shares lost 2p, finishing the day at 366.3p.

Mid Caps

Housebuilder Bovis Homes (BVS) announced that housing revenues increased by 17% over the first 6 months of the year, while pre-tax profits grew by 19% to 18.6 million pounds. The firm attributed the majority of its success to an increase in unit sales as home buyer sentiment improved over the period, in a trend boosted by government initiatives such as the Help to Buy Scheme. As a result of the success, the company has increased its interim dividend by 33% to 4p per share. The update prompted both Jefferies and Deutsche Bank to retain their "buy" recommendations on the group, with the latter increasing its target price from 909p to 995p. The shares slipped by 13.5p to 765p.

Insurance firm Amlin (AML) revealed that pre-tax profits for the six months ended 30th June fell to 161.4 million pounds from 184.4 million pounds a year earlier. Amlin explained that its performance was impacted by the recent floods in Europe which pushed its catastrophe losses up to 32.2 million pounds, well up on last year when no losses of this sort were recorded. Despite this drop-off, Amlin is adamant that it is on track to meet its full-year expectations. The shares grew by 4.9p to 396.2p.

Small Caps

Mineral developer Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA) narrowed its losses from 100,000 pounds to 34,000 pounds over the first 6 months of the year. The firm - which holds mineral properties in both Ireland and Mauritania - stressed that the company continues to look to raise additional funds to "advance the development of its project portfolio." The company was keen to stress that "no directors fees have been drawn" over the period, as it looked to conserve resources. The shares slid by 0.01p to 0.22p.

Software group Arcontech (ARC) saw its pre-tax losses fall to 508,000 pounds from 595,000 pounds over the year ended 30th June as revenues inched up from 1.5 million pounds to 1.8 million pounds. The firm benefitted from securing contracts worth over 960,000 pounds with unnamed international investment banks as it increased its focus on contracts with customers serving multiple jurisdictions. broker Northland Capital was impressed with Arcontech's performance against the backdrop of "challenging financial markets" and increased its target price from 0.16p to 0.18p, retaining its "buy" recommendation on the firm. The shares were down by 0.01p at 0.14p.

Property developer Safeland (SAF) revealed that its NAV per share grew by 14% to 57p over the year ended 31st March as the firm capitalised on the appreciation of property prices in London. For instance, the group's Chandos Tennis Club grew in value by 225,000 pounds to 4,175,000 pounds over the period. Management went on to say that, although the property market seems to be improving at the moment, the company is well equipped to "minimise the impact of any sudden unexpected market volatility." The shares inched up by 1.25p to 16.5p.

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Electric Word (ELE), a company which describes itself as a specialist information provider, swung into the red over the six month period ended 31st May after it reported a pre-tax loss of 354,000 pounds over the period, well down on the profit of 422,000 pounds it generated in the previous year. The firm blamed this deterioration in profitability to a result of timing differences and organic investments as it looked to "lay the foundations" for growth in the second half of the year. The shares were down by 0.04p at 1.84p.

Scooter manufacturer Vmoto (VMT) has opened its third retail store in China in a bid to market its new range of two-wheel vehicles. The new store is in the Lishui district on Nanjing, which has a population of eight million and is situated on the corner of a block which, according to Vmoto, has significant traffic flow, helping to expose the Vmoto brand. Separately, the firm confirmed that the sales performance from the group's first two stores has exceeded its own expectations since the openings back in June. The shares increased by 0.075p to 1.375p.

Sports animation agency Sports Stars Media (SPSM) announced that it has struck a deal with Cristiano Ronaldo for the launch of "The game by Ronaldo", a global five-a-side league. Entry into the game is based on the 'freemium' model whereby entrants are able to play a certain number of games in a month free of cost, but thereafter, have to pay in order to progress further in the competition. The shares swelled by 0.08p to 0.8p.

* Quindell Portfolio is a corporate client of a subsidiary of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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