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Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Glencore Xstrata, Premier Oil and Probability


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 20th August 2013

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The Markets

UK mortgage lending increased to its highest level since October 2008 last month according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. According to the figures, gross mortgage lending rose to 16.6 billion pounds in July, up 12% from June and a rise of 29% from July 2012. This data is the latest indicator of a greater appetite for mortgages, as low interest rates and government initiatives such as the Help to Buy Scheme entice first time buyers into the market. Richard Sexton, Director of e.surv chartered surveyors, commented, "The mortgage market has been the pillar of the economic recovery, rates are at record lows and there is a wider range of deals for borrowers to choose from than at any point since 2008."

Over in the states, the US Federal Reserve has stressed that America's largest banks must do more in order to hedge against a future crisis. The Fed study revealed that banks have made progress in preparing for stresses like those brought about by the 2008 financial crisis but insists that banks must go further by accounting for specific risks that relate to their business activities. According to the Federal Reserve, banks should consider holding regulatory capital beyond their own internal targets to better prepare for periods of market stress. An extract from the study read, "A key lesson from the recent financial crisis is that many financial companies simply failed to adequately identify the potential exposures and risks stemming from their firm-wide activities."

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At the London close the Dow Jones up by 36.71 points at 15,047.45 and the Nasdaq grew by 18.00 points to 3,087.76.

In London the FTSE 100 was down by 12.27 points at 6,453.46 and the FTSE 250 fell by 91.14 points to 14,774.07. The FTSE All-Share was down by 9.35 points at 3,432.85 while the FTSE AIM Index dropped by 4.75 points to 747.83.

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Broker Notes

Beaufort Securities stuck with its "speculative buy" recommendation on Magnolia Petroleum (MAGP) after the company announced yesterday that it increased its interest in three wells in Oklahoma. The broker believes that this news "presents a bright picture" of Magnolia's future performance. Beaufort goes on to cite that the company's partnership with well known operators, stable progress at the current well interests and the upside potential from the recently completed wells as further reason to believe in the shares. The shares slipped by 0.025p to 2.45p.

Shore Capital maintained its "buy" recommendation on engineering firm Carr's Milling Industries (CRM) with a target price of 1,415p. The broker notes that the company has today announced further expansion of its low-moisture feed block business in the US. Shore Capital feels that this move can be revenue enhancing for Carr's Miller and uses this, coupled with its positivity towards the agriculture sub-sector, as further justification for its "buy" recommendation. The shares were down by 35p at 1,380p.

Cantor Fitzgerald retained its "buy" recommendation on equipment hire company VP (VP.), increasing its target price from 425p to 490p. The broker notes today's trading update which claimed that the firm's recent trading performance had been solid. The broker initiated coverage on the firm back in June with a "buy" recommendation and re-affirms its argument that the group benefits from exposure to the more resilient infrastructure market, strong balance sheet and specialised nature of some of the services it offers. Reflecting the re-rating in equity markets and continued solid trading, Cantor moved its target price to 490p. The shares grew by 1.5p to 430p.

Blue-Chips

Energy services company Wood Group (WG.) announced a 3% increase in revenues from continuing operations to 3,447.1 million pounds for the six months to June, while EBITDA from continuing operations surged by 19% to 243.2 million pounds. Wood Group partly attributed the growth to a "significant contribution" from its US onshore activities in the shale regions. However, the firm did concede that its business in Western Canada - which represents just over 5% of the engineering division - has weakened further this year, in a trend which the firm does not expect to reverse in the short-term. The shares dived by 72p to 831p.

Building materials supplier CRH (CRH) swung into the red over the first 6 months of the year, it reporting a loss of 71 million euros (60.8 million pounds) for the period, well down on the pre-tax profit of 102 million euros (87.4 million pounds) it reported for the first half of 2012. Despite recent signs of an improving economy in Europe, management blamed a weak construction market for its poor results. The update comes a day after Deutsche Bank retained its "buy" recommendation on the group with a target price of 1,580p. The shares slid by 32p to 1,394p.

Reporting results for the first time as a merged entity, Glencore Xstrata (GLEN) announced that it has written down the value of Xstrata's assets by an eye-watering 4.9 billion pounds. The miner explained that this was a result of the well documented downturn in the mining sector, with metal prices falling fallen by 15% on average over the first 6 months of 2013. On a brighter note, the firm claimed that cost savings as a result of the merger are now likely to be well above the originally anticipated $500 million (319 million pounds) mark. The shares lost 4.8p, finishing the day at 297.15p.

Mid Caps

Oil exploration group Premier Oil (PMO) has executed a sale and purchase agreement to sell its 20% equity interest in the PL378 and PL378B blocks in the Norwegian North Sea. Under the terms of the deal - which is still subject to government approval - Premier is line to receive $16 million (10.2 million pounds). Management explained that the move was in line with its strategy of disposing of "non-core assets", enabling it to shift its resources to more lucrative projects. The update comes after Deutsche Bank retained its "buy" recommendation and 560p target price last week. The shares were down by 5.8p at 356.3p.

Distribution and aviation specialists John Menzies (MNZS) announced a 3% fall in underlying pre-tax profits to 22.8 million pounds for the first half of the year as revenues inched up to 997.9 million pounds. The firm's aviation business - which provides ticketing, cargo, baggage and check in services - flew upwards by 10%. However, this progress was more than offset by the firm's newspaper and magazine distribution division which saw profits plunge by 13%, impacted by lower demand for weekly magazines and the discontinuation of some titles. Separately, the group agreed to acquire an Australian and a Colombian ground handling business for a combined 14.1 million pounds in a move which is in line with the company's strategy of expanding geographically. The shares fell by 17.5p to 742p.

Marine services group James Fisher (FSJ) revealed a 7% increase in revenues to 200.7 million pounds for the first half of 2013, while underlying pre-tax profits grew by 15%. The firm boasted that its success was a result of its strategy of focusing on " niche, high growth marine services markets" in a trend being led by the group's offshore oil business which is benefiting from increasing North Sea demand. Investec responded to the update by re-iterating its "buy" recommendation on the firm, increasing its target price from 1,065p to 1,085p. The shares surged by 58.5p to 1,057p.

Small Caps

Financial services group Manx Financial* (MFX) reported a first half profit of 0.26 million pounds, in a turnaround from the loss of 0.6 million pounds which was recorded in the first half of 2012. The uplift was driven by an improvement in both net interest income and net trading income as the firm looked to build more sustainable revenue streams. Looking ahead, management claims that the outlook is "extremely promising for the company" and Chairman Jim Mellon insists that the market will soon realise the full potential of the firm. The shares soared by 3.25p to 10p.

Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) announced that it has signed a letter of intent with Spire Healthcare Limited in a bid to bring more affordable proton radiotherapy to the UK. Under the agreement, Advanced Oncotherapy's patented technology will be placed in Spire Hospitals as a new method of treating cancer. The technology in question centres on an affordable delivery of proton beam therapy which, according to management, is much more convenient than conventional radiotherapy, causing far fewer side effects. The financial details of the arrangement were not disclosed to the market. The shares swelled by 0.525p to 2.825p.

Interactive healthcare provider Ultrasis (ULT) announced that it has agreed to provide its "beating the blues" mental health service to Alexian Brothers Behavioral Health Hospital (ABBHH) in the US. ABBHH is part of Alexian Brothers Health System in Arlington Heights, Illinois, with the psychiatric hospital being the 7th largest behavioral health provider in the country. The product in question is designed to tackle stress, anxiety and depression as well as a full spectrum of related chronic conditions. The shares ticked upwards by 0.04p to 1.23p.

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Lidco (LID), which manufacturers surgical equipment which measures blood flow, claimed that it traded well over the first half of the year. According to Lidco, product sales were up by 36% to 3.4 million pounds, with strong uptake for its products from NHS hospitals in the UK as the company has focused on growing its market share in England. Looking ahead, the company stressed that it will increase its emphasis on capturing revenue from international sources. The shares nudged ahead by 0.625p to 15.5p.

Technology firm Cohort (CHRT) has secured a contract with BAE Systems to provide two external communications systems for the Astute submarine programme in a deal worth around 11 million pounds. The technology is used on nuclear submarines to relay data from family messages for the crew to critical mission orders. Management argues that the order improves its revenue visibility for the current year. The shares were up by 7p to 174.5p.

Online gaming firm Probability (PBTY) saw its full-year loss for the period ended 31st March grow from 0.5 million pounds to 0.6 million pounds as share option charges and depreciation took their toll. This decline came about despite a 20% increase in net gaming revenue to 8.6 million pounds and a 7% increase in average revenue per user to 161 pounds. The update was enough for Numis to retain its "buy" recommendation on the group with a 130p target price. The shares dived by 4.5p to 41.5p.

*Manx Financial Chairman, Jim Mellon, CEO, Denham Eke and Non-Executive Director, David Gibson are all Non-Executive Directors of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst. None has any editorial control over this report.

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