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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

| 08.27.13 | Nasdaq faces cloudy future

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August 27, 2013
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Today's Top Stories

  1. A true pioneer passes away as Wall Street women still struggle
  2. Nasdaq faces cloudy future
  3. BATS-Direct Edge looms as new power
  4. KBW: JPMorgan would be worth more broken up
  5. Capacity management in action at Wells Fargo


Also Noted: Spotlight On... P-E multiple growth way too fast?
JPMorgan reviews correspondent banking unit and much more...

News From the Fierce Network:
1. New online compliance tool debuts
2. Technology looms large in switch to new audit standard
3. Time to modify 13F requirements?


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Today's Top News

1. A true pioneer passes away as Wall Street women still struggle

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

"Firms are doing what they have to do, legally. But women are coming into Wall Street in large numbers — and they still are not making partner and are not getting into the positions that lead to the executive suites. There's still an old-boy network. You just have to keep fighting." So said Muriel Siebert back in 1992.

The question now is whether things are meaningfully better for women.

The question is apt at Wall Street continues to mourn a true pioneer. Siebert paved the way for a lot of women in the industry. The New York Times offers a rich obituary replete with telling anecdotes, like the time she threatened to bring in a portable potty if the NYSE didn't build a women's bathroom on the seventh floor. Or the time when she was told she couldn't use the elevator at an exclusive social club.

No one could ever accuse her of not giving back. She donated millions to help other women get started and she served capably in public service for five years.
While she helped create a system more favorable to women, one has to wonder if the progress stalled? We could debate that one forever.

Companies are still doing what they have to do legally. In some cases, they are doing more. But ascending to the C-suite remains extremely difficult. Staying there, even more so. There are a lot of factors at play, including the notion that the industry just isn't amenable to women these days. The really disconcerting hypothetical trend, if it comes to pass, would be that the most talented women seek careers elsewhere.

For more:
- here's the obit

 

 

Read more about: Wall Street women
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2. Nasdaq faces cloudy future

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

For the once-vaunted Nasdaq, nothing has come easy over the last few years---except problems. It was once considered the future of trading, with an all-electronic, floorless, multiple dealer-driven system that made the NYSE floor look archaic. But that time has passed, and so has its old reputation. No longer considered a technological marvel, it comes across, fairly or not, as less than competent technically and managerially.

The list of missteps is long. Nasdaq OX has failed miserably in its attempts to sell itself. Its attempts to merge with the London Stock Exchange most recently ended up a debacle. Its market share has been dwindling. It botched completely the Facebook IPO, incurring a $10 million, which does not bode well for its attempts to land the Twitter IPO. It has been at odds with regulators. And its technology has proven all too buggy, as the massive outage recently demonstrates.

The pressure was amplified by the news that BATS and Direct Edge are in talks for a merger, one that would push the Nasdaq down to the No. 3 spot.

To be sure, the company can point to some success in its efforts to diversify away from core exchange revenue. It has fared well in the platform business.

Still, the board has a lot to ponder, especially as the media critics emerge. The headline of one Bloomberg Businessweek article: "Nasdaq Goes Glitchy, and the Boss Goes Missing." The article started, "Where's Robert Greifeld when you need him? The Nasdaq (NDAQ) chief executive is getting slammed today for being invisible during the exchange's three-hour emergency shutdown Thursday, which affected trading in thousands of securities…."

The article noted that he was at a wake. During the Facebook IPO debacle, he was on a flight and out of pocket as well.

At some point, no one should be surprised if people start calling for some executive changes.  The board no doubt has pondered this.

For more:
- here's the article

 

 

Read more about: Nasdaq, exchanges
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3. BATS-Direct Edge looms as new power

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

When will BATS-Direct Edge become the No. 1 stock exchange in the United States?

It could happen at any time, perhaps sooner rather than later. Together, the two new-era stock exchanges, both of which are largely unencumbered by the legacy baggage of the NYSE and Nasdaq, control about 24 percent of market share, according to the Financial Times. That puts it an effective tie for the top spot with the NYSE.  

Many assume that the combined company will eventually become the top dog, which will mark an interesting milestone: the largest stock exchange will no longer reside in New York or the greater New York area or even Atlanta, where ICE is located; it will be headquartered farther away in tiny Overland Park, Kansas, though it will retain offices in New York and New Jersey.

This represents in some ways the triumph of the movement that so long ago began with so-called ECNs, which may yet vanquish the legacy exchanges. The most vulnerable right now would appear to be the Nasdaq, which has suffered a plethora of woes, including the inability to find a suitable merger partner. There could be some big changes ahead for the embattled company.

As for the NYSE, its future rests with the ICE. One can only hope that a thriving competition between ICE and BATS develops, the sooner the better.

One wildcard here is the anti-trust review. My sense is that there are so many execution options these days that the deal will not be blocked.

For more:
- here's an article         

Read more about: exchanges
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4. KBW: JPMorgan would be worth more broken up

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

The break-up-the-big-banks debate ebbs and flows, with no real conclusion. It's not as if one of the big banks is going to do this when its stock value continues to rise. Still, it's interesting to note a recent analysis from Stifel Financial, which concludes that JPMorgan Chase would be worth 30 percent more if it were broken into four distinct pieces.

As noted by Bloomberg, the report by analyst Christopher Mutascio has found that JPMorgan's traditional banking, investment banking, asset management and private equity businesses are separately worth $255.7 billion. That compares with just $197 billion as of last week.

To reach his valuation, "Mutascio used the trailing 12-month net income for each of JPMorgan's four units, subtracted preferred dividends and applied a price-to-earnings multiple of a similar company to find the value of each segment."

The report says JPMorgan could "free up" about $20 billion in common capital if it were broken up. "That's because the individual units would need to hold less capital to reduce risk than the company as a whole."

Persuasive or not, the company isn't going to be breaking up anytime soon. That said, the stock has been sliding as of late, as compliance and litigation pressures intensify, losing ground relative to other big banks. That represents an attractive buying opportunity, the analyst concludes, even in the absence of a break up.

For more:
- here's the article

Read more about: Bank break ups, JPMorgan Chase
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5. Capacity management in action at Wells Fargo

By Jim Kim Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Bloomberg notes an interesting presentation by Michael Heid, head of Wells Fargo mortgage business. One big point is that "capacity management" is critical to the success of any mortgage lending operation. You just have to be able to adjust so that your capacity is in line with actual demand, which makes sense.

The presentation "illustrated the cycles of hiring and firing in the mortgage operation," according to Bloomberg. The presentation "showed the hiring of 5,900 full-time workers in nine months of 2010. It then cut 5,000 employees over the next six months before hiring 7,000 over the next 15 months through the third quarter of 2012."

The cycle has turned again, as the bank has announced it will slash 2,300 jobs in the mortgage operations, as rising rates cuts demand for refinancing.

The Financial Times notes: "In the most recent quarter about half of the mortgage applications at Wells were for refinancing. That is down from 65 per cent in the previous quarter and 72 per cent at the end of the last year. New-home purchases would help fill the gap, but the strength and timing of those remains unclear with rates rising and unemployment persistently high. New-home sales fell 13 per cent in July from June, it was reported on Friday."

Given the bellwether status of Wells Fargo---it still controls about 25 percent of the industry---it's fair to assume that other banks will be forced to follow suit. 

For more:
- here's the article

Read more about: Wells Fargo, mortgages
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Also Noted

SPOTLIGHT ON... P-E multiple growth way too fast?

A Bloomberg analysis has found that price gains in the Standard & Poor's 500 are outpacing corporate profits by the fastest rate in 14 years. "The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities has risen 14 percent relative to income over the past 12 months to 16 times earnings," according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Valuations last climbed this fast in the final year of the 1990s technology bubble, just before the index began a 49 percent tumble. The rally that started in March 2009 has now outlasted the average gain since 1946, the data show." Article

Company News: 
> CIBC in talks on portfolio. Article
> T. Rowe bans some trading from employees of company. Article
> JPMorgan call cut by analyst. Article
> JPMorgan reviews correspondent banking unit. Article
> More on the virtues of a JPMorgan split up. Article
Industry News:
> Swedish banks hit hard. Article
> Community banks falter, pawnshops rise. Article
> Banks bet on longevity not faring well. Article     
> Middle market CLO defaults at issue. Article
> Scandinavian banks under capital pressure. Article
Regulatory News:
> The end of too big to fail? Article
And finally … Trump defends his school. Article


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