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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Wolseley, FirstGroup and William Sinclair


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 2nd October
2012

The Markets

The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) has claimed that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in the third quarter. The BCC's statistics are based on the results of a survey of some 7,593 companies. In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a 25 basis point cut to the base rate, to 3.25%. The country's central bank expects growth to slow in the next fiscal year and cited weak export prices of metals and raw materials as reasons for the move. Over in the US, more and more voices are calling out against the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing, claiming it will not help create jobs. The country's unemployment rate has remained above 8% since February 2009 despite the 600 billion dollar (371.5 billion pound) round of quantitative easing, known as QE2, back in 2010.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 47.65 points at 13,467.46 and the Nasdaq was up by 2.79 points at 2,797.07.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 11.00 points to 5,809.45; the FTSE 250 finished 26.93 points ahead at 11,894.41; the FTSE All-Share lost 3.76 points to 3,034.58; and the FTSE AIM Index climbed by 2.09 points to 709.46.

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Broker Notes

Seymour Pierce reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Shaftesbury (SHB), with a 573p target price. The broker noted that the refurbishment of the firm's Shaftesbury estate with new roads and restaurants has resulted in rent revenues more than doubling. Seymour Pierce added that the group is undertaking similar refurbishments at its Lazenby House and Fouberts Place sites. The broker expects the company to report a net asset value of 489p as at 30th September and believes that the share price premium is justified by its strong business model and consistent performance. The shares slipped by 1.5p to 528.5p.

N+1 Brewin downgraded its stance on Allocate Software (ALL) from "buy" to "hold" with a reduced target price of 80p, from 94p. The operational software developer warned that trading in the first quarter was below expectations, leading the broker to cut its first half EBITDA forecast to 1.3 million pounds, lower than in 2011's comparable period. Brewin believes that the difficult trading conditions are likely to persist and noted that the firm's renewal cycle is set to begin shortly. On the broker's revised forecasts, the share trade on a prospective multiple of 15.7 times for 2013, falling to 13.9 times in 2014. Shares in Allocate Software tumbled by 3.5p to 75.5p.

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" rating for Morgan Crucible (MGCR) with a 340p target price. The broker said that there is considerable scope for consolidation in the high-end ceramics industry and noted that this has already begun with the acquisition of advanced materials company Ceradyne by US conglomerate 3M. Panmure added that Morgan Crucible is a very similar company to Ceradyne, making it a prime acquisition target for 3M or similar global players. Ceradyne was acquired at 13.4 times 2013 EBITA and the broker said that a similar bid equates to an offer price of 475p for Morgan Crucible. The shares advanced by 2.8p to 280.9p.

Blue-Chips

Wolseley (WOS) enjoyed a year of strong cash generation, finishing the year ended 31st July with a net cash position of 45 million pounds, 568 million pounds higher than at the same time in 2011. In light of the strong performance, the heating and plumbing company announced plans to issue a special dividend worth 350 million pounds, or 122.2p per share. In addition, the group raised its normal dividend by 33.3% to 60p. During the period, the firm made nine bolt-on acquisitions, which contributed a combined 125 million pounds worth of annualised revenue. Wolseley shares slipped by 15p to 2,668p.

Engineering support services provider Babcock International Group (BAB) reported that its trading momentum remained strong in the half year ended 30th September, with growth in both the civil and military markets, and that it expects to announce results in-line with market forecasts. The company's order book remained stable at 13 billion pounds, while the bid pipeline rose to 13 billion pounds. The firm continued to see strong cash generation which it will use to reduce its net debt position. The shares gained 22.5p to 945p.

Mid-Caps

Public transport operator FirstGroup (FGP) said that its UK rail business achieved like-for-like passenger revenue growth of 8.1% for the six months ended 30th September, adding that it is focused on ensuring a smooth transition of the management of the InterCity West Coast franchise, which is currently being disputed by Virgin Rail. Meanwhile, the firm's UK bus business enjoyed growth in the North of England and Scotland, but was adversely impacted by subsidy cuts in the South. FirstGroup shares rose by 3.5p to 244p.

John Laing Infrastructure Fund (JLIF) has successfully raised 60.4 million pounds in a "significantly oversubscribed" placing at a price of 106.5p per share, a discount of 1.4% to the closing price on 6th September, the day before the open offer was first announced. The investment company will use the proceeds to acquire a new portfolio of assets, including stakes in two hospitals in the UK and a barracks in the Netherlands. The shares crept up by 0.85p to 107.6p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Shares in Kalimantan Gold (KLG) crashed by 0.75p to 4.375p after the firm announced that Tigers Realm Metals failed to achieve the results it expected at Kalimantan's Jelai gold project in Indonesia. Tigers Realm drilled 12 holes over a six month period, spending 2 million dollars (1.2 million pounds) and following completion of the exploration programme it has decided to withdraw from the option deed to acquire a stake in the site. Kalimantan added that it has entered into discussions with a number of other parties with the aim of finding a partner for the project.

St Ives (SIV) reported underlying pre-tax profits of 24.2 million pounds for the year ended 27th July, up 15.9% on 2011's performance, on revenue growth of 10.3% to 327.4 million pounds. The firm acquired three businesses during the period to increase its marketing services capabilities, while also cutting costs in the print division and focusing on developing its ebook offering. As a result of the acquisitions, the firm's financial position changed from a cash balance of 16.3 million pounds to a net debt position of 13.4 million pounds. The shares swelled by 5.5p to 85.25p.

Horticulture company William Sinclair Holdings (SNCL) warned that the heavy rainfall and flooding resulted in demand for plant food in the 12 months ended July 2012 falling by 19.2% across the UK. The group therefore said it will fall short of market expectations for its financial year ended 30th September 2012. Additionally, the firm noted that it will have to lower its final dividend, from 4.4p in 2011, in order to compensate. Shares in William Sinclair crumbled by 12.5p to 150p.

Ultimate Finance Group (UFG) saw adjusted pre-tax profits surge by 58% to 1.9 million pounds for the year ended 30th June and increased its final dividend by 14% to 0.4p per share. The loan provider said that both its Ashley and asset finance divisions performed ahead of expectations and noted that it successfully launched its trade finance division in July 2012. The group added that it is well financed, with a 34 million pound credit facility, maturing in July 2014 and that it currently has 8.7 million pounds of headroom. The shares leapt by 1.375p to 16.25p.

Scientific camera developer Andor Technology (AND) reported that it had seen a recovery from the slowdown in orders from two US customers, previously announced in June, with new orders totalling 3.2 million dollars (2.0 million pounds) which are expected to be delivered in the financial year ending 30th September 2013. The group expects to report a 15% decline in full year revenues for the 2012 financial year, down against a tough comparable in 2011, with saw growth of 109%. The company also plans to introduce a maiden dividend of at least 2p per share for the period and will have progressive dividend policy from then on. Andor shares surged by 34p to 419p.

3Legs Resources (3LEG) announced that ConocoPhillips chose not to exercise its option to purchase a 70% stake in the oil and gas explorer's concessions in northern Poland. However, 3Legs believes that the drilling and seismic tests performed at the site have increased the probability of success. Meanwhile, the firm said that testing is due to commence at its Lebien LE-2H well in the western Baltic Basin concession. The shares leaked by 2.875p to 40p.

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