| | Sunday 30 September 2012 THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS
Harry Potter and the Big Share Secret
By Malcolm Stacey
Hello Share Monkeys,
I heard the author of the Harry Potter books say on the radio that she could do what she wanted now because she can now pay her bills.
To do this, though, you need a supply of cash. You could sell shares to settle your bills, but this means you might have to sell them when shares have taken a hit on the stock exchange. Just as they are doing now.
To hold cash is not be forced into selling stock. And that is why you should not put every last penny into shares, no matter how confident you are.
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The Week Ahead Sainsbury and Tesco go head-to-head
There is a retail theme to next week's results, with supermarket giants Tesco and Sainsbury set to report, along with car products provider Halfords, homewares retailer Dunelm and fashion chain Ted Baker.
On the economic front, central banks will be in focus with the European Central Bank making its interest rate announcement on Thursday, a few hours of the Fed's statement in the US.
On Friday, the big announcement is the US non-farm payrolls figure for September, with the market expecting an increase of 116,000.
Panmure Gordon's view on the trading updates of supermarket rivals Tesco and Sainsbury is that, taking the long term view, neither is very important.
"Sainsbury's Q2 [second quarter] trading statement is not important in the context of what we expect will be significant changes to the food retailers' strategic priorities over the next 12 months. We expect space growth to slow, investment to shift online and ultimately significant and recurring returns of capital to shareholders," the retail team at Panmure Gordon opined.
"We look for similar like-for-like sales growth in Q2 to that seen in Q1, which delivered 1.4% (ex-fuel). We expect to see continued growth online at around double that recorded by Ocado," the broker added.
Looking at the supermarket sector as a whole, Panmure Gordon thinks the ending of the "space race" and the re-focus of investment online is "but the first step to making the sector investable again and the path that we have outlined should lead to a significant revaluation."
Seymoure Pierce wants to see how the aggressive money-off coupon campaign has affected sales and profitability at Tesco. "Attention will also be focused on whether the international business has slowed much from its Q1 [first quarter] update, particularly South Korea where new opening hour legislation was introduced at the end of Q1, as well as an update on the US where losses are still unacceptably high," the broker suggests.
The broker is forecasting a 6% fall in first half profit before tax to GBP1,603m and a flat dividend per share of 4.6p. "A fall in profits from the UK is expected to be partially offset by improvements in Asia, US and the bank and flat Europe," they predict.
The first quarter interim management statement from Dunelm sees the group going up easier comparatives figures, as a year ago like-for-like (LFL) sales were down 2.0% year-on-year (yoy).
"However, given the deterioration in market data, we expect a sharp slowdown in LFL sales and pencil in a flat quarter for Dunelm. Gross margin likely to show modest progress yoy," Peel Hunt suggests.
Monday October 01
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Avesco Group, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, Legal & General Group, Portmeirion Group, Robinson, Stanley Gibbons Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Pure Wafer, Sabien Technology Group
AGMS
Begbies Traynor Group, City of London Investment Group, Swan (John) & Sons, Zetar
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Andor Technology, ITE
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Park Group, PZ Cussons, Swan (John) & Sons
Tuesday October 02
INTERIMS
Walker Greenbank
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
FBD Holdings, Holders Technology
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (15:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Antisoma, St Ives, Ultimate Finance Group, Wolseley
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Babcock International Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
City of London Group, Micro Focus International, Vianet Group
Wednesday October 03
INTERIMS
Tesco
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Greencore Group, Kazakhmys, Novae Group, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Rathbone Brothers, TUI Travel
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Advanced Medical Solutions Group, Ashley (Laura) Holding, Barr (A.G.), Bodycote, Brammer, Charles Taylor, F&C Asset Management, F&C Private Equity Trust, Fairpoint Group, Fiberweb, Fisher (James) & Sons, GVC Holdings, Henry Boot, Huntsworth, Inmarsat, Judges Scientific, Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, Motivcom, New Britain Palm Oil Ltd. (DI), Northbridge Industrial Services, office2office, Petropavlovsk, Severfield-Rowen, Staffline Group, Tandem Group, Weir Group, Witan Pacific Inv Trust
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
British Land Co, Investors Capital Trust 'A' Shares, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Mercantile Investment Trust (The), Merchants Trust, Schroder Income Growth Fund, Torchmark Corp.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
Q4
Sportingbet
FINALS
AI Claims Solutions, Sportingbet
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
TR European Growth Trust
AGMS
Aurora Russia Ltd.
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Marston's, Sainsbury (J), Dunelm
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Betfair Group, Stagecoach Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Abbey, Alumasc Group, City of London Investment Group, Galliford Try, JPMorgan Mid Cap Inv Trust, Smith (DS), TR European Growth Trust, Tricorn Group, Utilico Investments Ltd (DI), Zetar
Thursday October 04
INTERIMS
Ted Baker
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Amlin, Antofagasta, ARM Holdings, Churchill China, Croda International, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., Phoenix Group Holdings (DI), Shire Plc, Tullow Oil
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
GlaxoSmithKline
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
Goods Orders (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
PMI Construction (GER) (08:55)
Q3
Sandvine Corp.
FINALS
Animalcare Group, Matchtech Group
IMSS
Carillion
EGMS
Public Power GDR SA (Reg S)
AGMS
F&C US Smaller Companies, Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd GDR (Reg S), VietNam Holding Ltd
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Halfords Group, Victrex
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Medusa Mining Ltd. (DI)
Friday October 05
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
32Red, Aggreko, Arbuthnot Banking Group, Cape, Cineworld Group, Communisis, Densitron Technologies, Devro, Elementis, Evraz, Grafton Group Units, Greggs, Hammerson, International Personal Finance, Irish Continental Group Units, Maintel Holdings, Meggitt, Michael Page International, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Ocean Wilsons Holdings Ltd., Regus, Resolution Ltd., SEGRO, Shaft Sinkers Holdings
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
British Assets Trust
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Verizon Communications
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)
GDP (2nd release) (EU) (10:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
GMS
Sperati CA
FINALS
Imperial Innovations Group
IMSS
Wood Group (John)
AGMS
Abbey, Immofinanz AG, Madagascar Oil Ltd (DI)
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
KCOM Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
ACM Shipping Group, Darty, ECO Animal Health Group, Pennon Group
Q1
Elringklinger AG&
Link to article.
BOOK OF THE WEEK Spread betters will all remember the time when one of their positions fell through its stop-loss, closing out the position by narrowest of margins, only for the price to rocket five minutes later! Cue the binary bet, a trading instrument that can immediately limit down-side risk. In Binary Trading John Piper introduces investors to relatively new concept of binary betting, in which punters can make the most outrageous moves in complete safety. The binary bet allows spread betters to bet on the particular outcome for a market, for example if the FTSE will close up. As the name infers, there can only be two possible outcomes, the FTSE closes up or down, and thus the investor gains or loses a pre-determined amount.
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ALTERNATIVE BET OF THE WEEK Your local betting shop may be great for the footie, but you must go online for the truly weird bets.
This week: Who will win the Corby by-election
Singles Only. Applies to the party of the winner of the Corby by election as recorded on the ballot. Bets void should the by election not take place by the end of 2013. Others on request.
| Labour | 1/20 | | Conservative | 8/1 | | UKIP | 22/1 | | Liberal Democrat | 66/1 |
Regards,
ShareCrazy
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