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Friday, November 1, 2013

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Supergroup, Meggitt, IP Group, Fastjet and MDM Engineering


From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 1st November 2013

The Markets

The Manufacturing sector in the UK continued to show good signs of growth during October according to figures released today. Data company Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) did however fall slightly from 56.3 to 56 in October - a figure which nevertheless still indicates substantial growth. A breakdown of the figures revealed that activity in the sector - which represents around 11% of the total UK economy - was boosted by a hike in overseas demand. Markit economist Rob Dobson commented, "The UK is no longer being left behind in the chase to benefit from improving global markets. A strengthening domestic market, riding on the crest of a wave from recent positive economic news, also remains a prime driver of the recovery."

Meanwhile, Manufacturing activity in China increased at the quickest pace in 18 Months during October, raising hopes of a well-grounded recovery over in the world's second largest economy. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.4 in October, up from 51.1 in September, edging further into growth territory in the process. The data also supports the idea of a well-rounded recovery as the numbers follow news that industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment all grew during October too. Louis Kuijs, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, commented, "With global demand momentum likely to pick up gradually and domestic demand growth remaining solid, we expect GDP growth to comfortably exceed the government's bottom line in the coming quarters."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 24.62 points at 15,570.37 and the Nasdaq was down by 1.85 points to 3,375.88.

In London the FTSE 100 closed up by 3.31 points at 6,734.74 and the FTSE 250 was down by 24.26 points to 15,455.69. The FTSE All-Share fell up by 0.67 points to 3,585.99 while the FTSE AIM Index increased by 2.33 points at 810.72.

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Broker Notes

Shore Capital re-iterated its "buy" recommendation on coach and bus operator National Express (NEX) following its recent trading update. Although the update in question revealed that trading is currently coming in broadly in line with expectations, the broker decided to slightly downgrade is 2013 forecast for the UK bus division. However, Shore Capital is encouraged by the "improving trends" within the much maligned European Coach & Bus and US School Bus divisions and therefore sticks with its "buy" recommendation for now. The shares were down by 3.9p to 257.7p.

Canaccord Genuity cut its target price from 1200p to 1100p on mining group Antofagasta (ANTO) and retained its "buy" recommendation. The downgrade comes as the broker cut its copper production estimates for next year over fears of falling copper grades at the El Tesoro operation. Looking ahead, the broker expects the upcoming analyst trip to Antofagasta's operations in early December to be a significant positive catalyst for the shares, which were down by 18p to 837p.

Cantor Fitzgerald stuck with its "buy" recommendation on fashion retailer SuperGroup (SGP) with a target price of 1400p. The broker feels that the upcoming Q2 numbers due out on the 7th November should be positively received and predicts that sales would have benefited from a "spruce up" and increase of ranges. Cantor goes on to argue that the new womenswear assortment, particularly in knitwear and tailoring should help drive up earnings too. The shares fell by 35p to 1,137p.

Blue Chips

Aircraft part supplier Meggit (MGGT) conceded that trading since the beginning of July has been "slightly below expectations" due to a combination of contract delays and production difficulties. As a result of this, coupled with the weakening of the dollar against the pound, management stressed that 2013 revenue growth would be in the low single digits rather than the mid single digits which was projected back in August. The update comes after Deutsche Bank re-iterated its "hold" stance on the group with a 525p target price. The shares slipped by 63.5p to 509p.

The 81% government owned bank Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) looks likely to create an internal 'bad bank' to house more of its problem loans. The problem-riddled bank also revealed that operating profits came in at 438 million pounds for the third quarter of 2013, well down on 909 million pounds which was recorded in the prior year period. The bank said that this deterioration was driven by an "ongoing strategic contraction of the Markets business". The shares slid by 27.6p to 340p.

Experian (EXPN) confirmed that it has sold its Colombian document outsourcing business, Experian Computec, to Colombian investment firm Hermes Documentos. Management explained that the business - which was acquired as part of the Computec acquisition in 2011 - is now seen as a non-core component to the overall group. Although the specific financial information was not disclosed by the credit checker, the company said that the move would free up resources to focus on growing the core data and analytics businesses in Colombia. The shares fell by 23p to 1,247p.

Mid Caps

Intellectual Property company IP Group (IPO) claimed it has achieved "significant progress" since its half year results, with the fair value of the group's portfolio standing at 258.2 million pounds at 30th October, well up on the 191.9 million pounds which prevailed at 30th June. Most notably, the company has completed an investment in Cambridge Innovation Capital as it looks to profit out of the company's market position of being able to provide university spinouts with commercialisation potential. The shares inched up by 4p to 151p.

Recycled packaging supplier DS Smith (SMDS) stressed that trading over the 6 months ended 31st October was in line with expectations, with all operating businesses contributing to the positive momentum. The group went on to say that its core packaging business has performed encouragingly while the recent acquisition of SCA Packaging is already feeding through to significant cost synergies. The shares were down by 1.4p to 301.2p.

Laundering and textile-maintenance business Berendsen (BRSN) also claimed that trading has gone well since the start of July, with revenue for the group up by 9% compared to the same period last year. Divisionally, it emerged that Workwear continued to make top line progress while the facility business saw higher levels of revenue growth than in the first half. Goldman Sachs is an admirer of the stock and currently has a "buy" recommendation on the shares and a 1184p target price. The shares jumped by 9.5p to 980p.

Small Caps

Document management software provider Invu (INVU) confirmed that it intends to seek shareholder approval for the cancellation of admission of its ordinary shares to trading on AIM. The news comes after a period which has seen the company restructure and shrink and the proposed de-listing is another example of how the INVU is seeking to strip out costs. In order for the cancellation to be rubber-stamped, Invu needs to get at least 75% of its shareholders to agree to the delisting proposal. The shares plummeted by 0.27p to 0.36p.

Drug discovery firm Sareum Holdings (SAR) announced that it has raised 1.67 million pounds before expenses by raising just under 280 million shares at a price of 0.6p per share. Part of the proceeds will fund the company's commitment to its collaboration with the Cancer Research Technology Pioneer Fund. The remaining funds will be used to advance Sareum's Checkpoint Kinase 1 inhibitor candidate through further pre-clinical development before it can be approved for phase 1 clinical trials. The shares were down b y 0.075p to 0.7p.

African airline Fastjet (FJET) announced that the first flight from Dar es Salaam to Mbeya in south west Tanzania departed on schedule this morning. The new route is designed to give customers affordable fares to the people of Mbeya, a city located close to Tanzania's borders with Zambia and Malawi. As a result of the new route, Fastjet now offers over 45,000 seats on more than 300 flights per month with the company expecting to add Lusaka in Zambia to its network in the near future. The shares rose by 0.1p to 3.6p.

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Mineral processing company MDM Engineering (MDM) said that it continues to have a successful year despite difficult market conditions, with full year results expected to be in line with expectations. Looking ahead, the company - which works predominately with the mining industry - said it has a promising line up of work in its pipeline which should feed through to results over the short-medium term. Investors will now have to wait until 4th December to unpick the company's interim numbers for the period ended 30th September. The shares swelled by 7p to 155p.

Music rights company One Media IP (OMIP) also announced that recent trading remained in line with expectations as it completed its financial year. The company - which buys the rights to pop songs and bundles them together as digital albums - praised its $120,000 (75,000 pounds) worth of investments in licences over the year ended 31st October and argued that this was an efficient use of cash resources. The company went on to say that it will pay an interim dividend of 0.077p per ordinary share in respect of the period in question. The shares lost 2.13p , finishing the day at 15.25p.

Marketing firm Porta Communications (PTCM) confirmed that it has increased its holding in Thirteen Communications Limited from 30% to 51% via the payment of 350,000 which is to be satisfied by the issue of 2,692,300 ordinary shares of 10p each. Porta Management explained that the recent success of Thirteen Communications in terms of new business and joint pitches with Newgate all but decided its decision to increase its investment now. The shares slipped by 0.13p to 14p.

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