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Thursday, October 17, 2013

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring SABMiller, Britvic and Omega Diagnostics


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 17th October 2013

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The Markets

To much relief, the US congress has raised the US debt ceiling less than a day before the final deadline. The deal - which follows a 16 day partial government shutdown - will be especially welcomed by a global investment community which was bracing itself for the possibility of the US defaulting on its debt. However, the deal merely offers temporary relief as the budgetary divides which exist between Republicans and Democrats are still very much alive. President Obama said, "We can begin to lift this cloud of uncertainty and unease from our businesses and from the American people. Hopefully next time it won't be in the 11th hour. We've got to get out of the habit of governing by crisis."

In the latest piece of good news for the UK high street, retail sales increased by more than expected in September. According to figures from the Office for National Statistics, retail sales volumes increased by 0.6% on the month to show growth of 2.2% compared with a year earlier. A breakdown of the figures suggested that an increase in furniture sales helped to boost volumes as a recovery in the housing market trickled down and benefitted home retail stores. Martin Beck at Capital Economics commented, "With recent labour market data showing no sign of any let-up in the squeeze on real earnings and British Gas becoming the second supplier to announce a rise in utility prices, retail sales are likely to grow at a fairly subdued rate in the near-term."

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 64.47 points at 15,309.36 and the Nasdaq Increased by 6.66 points to 3,288.33.

In London the FTSE 100 closed up by 4.57 points at 6,576.16 and the FTSE 250 swelled by by 15.31 points to 15,231.91. The FTSE All-Share increased by 2.76 points to 3,506.68 while the FTSE AIM Index grew by 2.64 points to 790.48.

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Broker Notes

N+1 Singer stuck with its "buy" recommendation on retailer Mothercare (MTC) with a target price of 450p. The broker believes management's transformation and growth plan remains firmly on track and feels that key initiatives in the UK should increasingly be gaining traction. N+1 Singer goes on to say that it sees scope for sales and margins to trend better from H2 given the recent shutdown of some loss-making UK stores. The shares increased by 20.75p to 413.5p.

Canaccord Genuity has increased its target price from 475p to 550p on asset management group Polar Capital Holdings (POLR), re-iterating its "buy" recommendation on the company. The broker notes that the company's assets under management doubled over the year ended 30th September, driven by net inflows of $8.2 billion (5.1 billion pounds) over the 6 months ended 30th September. As a result, Canaccord has increased its earnings forecasts and feels that December's interim results announcement could prove to be a catalyst for the share price to increase. Polar Capital shares increased by 28.75p to 470p.

Cantor Fitzgerald stuck with its "sell" recommendation on distribution group Bunzl (BNZL) with a target price of 1,070p. The broker notes today's Q3 trading update which came in consistent with market expectations. However, Cantor highlights that the shares are currently trading on a 1 year forward PE multiple of 17.3 times, which is towards the top end of its 5 year trading range. Although the broker appreciates the merits of the business, it cannot justify this "premium" valuation. The shares were up by 5p at 1,334p.

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Blue Chips

SABMiller (SAB) claimed that it had traded in line with expectations over the 6 months ended 30th September, with total beverage volumes up by 2% over the period. The company partly attributed the improved results to a "strong" performance across its African business and increasing market share in Latin America and the Asia Pacific region. The company, which operates over 200 beer brands worldwide, did go on to warn that the depreciation of key currencies against the US dollar will adversely impact reported results. The shares grew by 127p to 3,167p.

British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) saw revenues increase by 7% to 1.84 billion pounds over the three months ended 30th September, with EBITDA remaining steady at around 392 million pounds over the period. The company was quick to praise the traction that its broadband products have created, with 26% of the company's customers now taking TV, broadband and telephone services from Sky. The update prompted Westhouse Securities to increase its target price on the shares from 934p to 985p, re-iterating its "add" recommendation in the process. The shares increased by 62p to 940p.

Building materials group Travis Perkins (TPK) revealed that a buoyant UK housebuilding market is resulting in an increase in trade demand. However, the company's retail business, Wickes, has struggled against a backdrop of increased competition and failed to fully capitalise on the hot UK summer weather as it only stocked a small range of outdoor products. On the whole however, management stressed that it is on track to meet full year expectations. The shares were down by 29p to 1,749p.

Mid Caps

Casino operator The Rank Group (RNK) conceded that the group delivered a 7% decline in like-for-like revenues over the 15 weeks ended 13th October. The company attributed the deterioration to the hot weather in July, a lower casino win margin in London and a disappointing performance in Mecca's venues and digital channel. As a result of this performance, management now expect full year profit to come in "marginally below expectations". The shares were down by 4p to 150p.

Soft drink supplier Britvic (BVIC) anticipates that full year operating profit for the period ended 29th September to come in "slightly above previous guidance". Britvic explained that it was able to harness the hot weather over the summer to push sales as prices and volumes both exhibited growth over the period. The Robinsons squash and Tango producer also boasted that its Fruit Shoot brand has now recovered from the faulty cap-induced recall of bottles last year as the product begins to grow market share again. The shares swelled by 7.5p to 607.5p.

Investment firm Man Group (EMG) revealed its first quarterly net inflow in two years as net inflows over the July-September quarter reached $0.7 billion (0.44 billion pounds). Sales of Man Group's funds totalled $4.1 billion (2.54 billion pounds) in the third quarter, exceeding $3.4 billion (2.1 billion pounds) of withdrawals over the three month period. The positive result reflects the fact that withdrawals slowed over the period as investors became less concerned that the European sovereign debt crisis would hurt investment performance. The shares crept upwards by 2.95p to 85.85p.

Small Caps

IT consultancy group Enables IT* (EIT) confirmed that revenues and profits for the year ended 30th September will come in consistent with management expectations. The company claimed that market demand for its products and services remain strong, while its contract pipeline remains healthy as customers shift towards "flexible and robust solutions around cloud solutions and backend network infrastructure". Looking ahead, management is confident on the future growth prospects of the group given the increased awareness of its brand and a hike in the number of sales consultants employed. The shares increased by 2.5p to 42p.

Brokerage group Plus500 (PLUS) announced a 52.7% increase in revenues to $64.7 million (40.1 million pounds) over the nine months ended 30th September. The improvement was driven by a strong growth in customer numbers in a trend which Plus500 attributes to its online marketing and affiliate programmes. As a result of the increasing popularity of its trading platform, the company went on to re-affirm guidance for the whole year and also stuck to its pledge to maintain a progressive dividend policy. The shares were up by 19p to 147p.

Manufacturers of medical diagnostic tools Omega Diagnostics (ODX) expects pre-tax profits for the 6 month period ended 30th September to be "at least 10% ahead" of the 0.38 million pounds which was earned in the prior year period. Omega said that a surge in growth in turnover in the food intolerance and allergy/autoimmune divisions helped to offset an uninspiring performance by an infection disease business which was impacted by a major customer failing to fulfil its contractual obligations. The shares jumped by 0.75p to 14.88p.

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Fellow medical group Futura Medical (FUM) confirmed that its new condom has been awarded the CE mark certificate, enabling the product to be marketed all over Europe. The product in question is thought to heighten sexual satisfaction for both men and women and has already been licensed to Church & Dwight, owner of the reputable Trojan brand in certain key territories. The question is though, will the future share performance satisfy investors? It remains to be seen. The shares edged upwards by 2.75p to 68p.

Food wholesaler Booker Group (NPT) announced a 17% increase in pre-tax profits to 2.2 billion pounds for the 24 week period ended 13th September, with revenues up by 16.5% over the same period. The company piled praise on its performance across its fruit and vegetable operations as sales rose by 18% in this category. However, the company did admit that tobacco sales delivered a 1.1% fall in like for like sales and blamed increasing competition from illicit tobacco trade for the shortfall. The shares inched upwards by 0.8p to 141.9p.

Several companies across the AIM market responded to significant share price movements. Auhua Clean Energy (ACE) and investment group RCG Holdings (RCG) both stressed that they knew of no reason for their respective valuation fluctuations. Oil explorer Forum Energy (FEP) hinted that its surge in share price could be due to in line results from the flow test of a development well in the Philippines in which Forum has a 2.27% participating interest. Meanwhile, management of fellow oil player Independent Oil & Gas (IOG) were also unsure on why the shares had risen so significantly but did say that it could be in connection with the ongoing sale process of its company's partner ATP Oil & Gas in the US.

* Enables IT is a corporate client of a subsidiary of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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