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Monday, October 28, 2013

Monday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring G4S, Tullow Oil, Balfour Beatty and Globo


From UK-Analyst.com: Monday 28th October 2013

The Markets

UK retail sales have remained flat so far in October, with growth hampered by a significant fall in supermarket sales. The Confederation of British Industry's monthly distributive trades balance fell to +2 from a 15-month high of +34 in September, well down on the +33 reading which was estimated by analysts. However, the experts have refused to get carried away with the figures with Barry Williams, Chairman of the CBI survey panel, arguing, "Although the high street recovery stalled this month, there is optimism that it was just a blip. It is also encouraging to see that signs are pointing towards increased consumer confidence, backed up by continuing growth in certain areas such as furniture and carpets."

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Benoit Coeure said that the Eurozone is out of the danger zone, but must do more on its financial sector if it is to prosper. The announcement comes a year before the ECB intends to take over supervision of banks in the region in a bid to increase transparency in the much beleaguered European banking sector. Part of Benoit Coeure's speech read, "Europe has emerged from the danger zone. It's time for us to get our act together, to reform and to grow...Europe needs to avoid protectionist temptations and calls for re-nationalisation."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 5.49 points at 15,575.77 and the Nasdaq was down by 1.28 points to 3,381.40.

In London the FTSE 100 closed up by 4.48 points at 6,725.82 and the FTSE 250 was down by 62.84 points to 15,428.74. The FTSE All-Share was up by 0.21 points at 3,581.12 while the FTSE AIM Index inched up by 1.55 points to 804.83.

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Broker Notes

Shore Capital cut its "hold" stance to a "sell" on asset management firm Henderson Group (HGG) with a target price of 208p. The broker notes that the company's share price has increased by 60% over the last year, a rise which represents a 43% out-performance against the FTSE 100. Given what the broker describes as a "non-spectacular growth outlook" for the company, Shore Capital feels this rise has been somewhat overdone. The shares inched up by 1.5p to 207.5p.

Panmure Gordon has upgraded its "hold" stance to a "buy" recommendation on housebuilder Redrow (RDW), increasing its target price from 254p to 294p. The broker says it had a "positive" meeting with the company last week and has subsequently increased its forecasts, target price and recommendation. Panmure feels that the share price will be driven higher by significant unit growth in London, with improving margins coming as result. The shares grew by 0.7p to 254.8p.

Jefferies has upgraded its view on software giant Sage (SGE), now labelling the shares a "buy" rather than a "hold", while increasing its target price from 320p to 380p. The broker acknowledges that the shares have fallen by 4% over the last three months and notes that they are now trading at a significant discount to the European software peer group. Jefferies believes that this discount is unwarranted and stresses that the market should not be too concerned with the group's apparent lack of progress in the cloud market. The shares were up by 2.5p at 334.4p.

Blue Chips

Temporary power provider Aggreko (AGK) revealed that it has traded in line with expectations since the beginning of July, with revenues and margins both slightly up on the same period last year. An increase in business in the US and Africa helped to more than offset a 17% slump in revenues generated in the Asia-Pacific region with particularly weak performances delivered in Japan and Indonesia. The shares swelled by 91p to 1,608p.

Security group G4S (G4S) has rejected a 1.55 billion pound offer for its cash solutions business from British private equity group Charterhouse Capital Partners. G4S argued that the offer for the unit - which generated around 18% of total turnover last year - was "highly opportunistic" and did not value the business fairly. The update comes after HSBC upgraded its "underweight" recommendation on G4S to a "neutral" stance last week. The shares slid by 1.3p to 257.2p.

Oil producer Tullow Oil (TLW) revealed that it has suspended drilling operations on two blocks in northwest Kenya over security concerns as local residents demanded more jobs at the sites. Tullow confirmed that demonstrations have taken place and that it has decided to suspend operations in an attempt to ensure the safety and security of its staff. The news comes as Tullow continues to determine the commercial viability of the oil it has encountered in both blocks. The shares slipped by 21.5p to 957p.

Mid Caps

In the latest contract win for the construction company, Balfour Beatty (BBY) announced that it has been awarded 73 million pounds worth of coastal defence contracts from Blackpool Council and Wyre Council. The deal will see the renewal of over 2.9km of original 1930's seawalls and builds on a 13 year relationship between Balfour and the two councils. The deal comes after a string of recent contract wins over recent weeks, with work on this project due to begin this winter. The shares were up by 0.1p at 285.3p.

Trading platform operator Fidessa (FDSA) conceded that its clients have not changed their investing behaviour on the back of the supposed pick up in equity markets and it has therefore experienced a "continuation of attrition and price pressure" since July. However, Fidessa hinted that this trend could now be on an improving trajectory and said it could soon return to delivering growth levels closer to those that have been seen in the past. The shares jumped by 32p tp 2,050p.

Small Caps

Investment group Avanti Capital (AVA) announced that investee company Eclectic Bar has announced its intention to float on the AIM market. Avanti holds a 60% equity stake in Eclectic together with a loan due from Eclectic of approximately 7.3 million pounds. Avanti went on to re-affirm its belief in Eclectic, arguing that it has substantial growth opportunities and stressing that this transition to the public markets should provide the capital to accelerate its growth. The shares soared by 35p to 91p.

Software provider Globo (GBO) confirmed it is to publish additional information relating to its accounts to appease an investor base riddled with concern. The company conceded that it could do more to communicate details on its working capital model as well the impact of the disposal late last year of 51% of its subsidiary, Globo Technologies. The extra information should be available to the public by the end of this month. The shares slumped by 14p to 53.5p.

Webis Holdings (WEB) saw revenues increase by 48.3% to 168.64 million pounds over the year ended 31st May, with the company reporting a total comprehensive profit of 355,000 pounds for the period, well up on the 41,000 pounds loss it made in the previous year. Looking ahead, the online gaming company remains confident that it is in a position to capitalise on any US regulatory changes, particularly within California. The shares surged by 1.375p to 5.5p.

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Recruiter Nakama Group (NAK) revealed that pre-tax profits more than halved to 61,000 pounds over the six months ended 30th September, while revenues remained relatively stable at 8.63 million pounds. The group admitted that its trading results have not been great across the UK but stressed that it has made some "important hires" as it looks to make traction in the digital markets in particular. The shares edged upwards by 0.175p to 1.375p.

Payment facilitator Optimal Payments (OPAY) said that it has been approved by the New Jersey authorities as a valid payments technology and risk management provider to internet gaming companies. The rubber-stamp comes after the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement had approved it after reviewing several applications. The news prompted Numis to re-iterate its "buy" recommendation, increasing its target price from 325p to 350p. The shares grew by 21.75p to 310.75p.

Investment firm Alpha Strategic (APS) announced that revenues generated over the 6 months ended 30th September plummeted from 247,000 pounds to 26,000 pounds, primarily as a result of the termination of a revenue sharing agreement with Ikos Asset Management. However, the group's operating loss nearly halved over the period to 994,000 pounds as result of a reduction in administrative expenses. The shares fell by 3p to 34p.

Competition

Congratulations to Steve Axon whose caption (below) was voted the funniest and has won the UK-Analyst Friday competition. Watch out for another contest at the end of the week.

"If GDP continues rising I might be able to afford a proper haircut"

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