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Friday, October 25, 2013

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Microsoft, Royal Mail, Serco and the Weekly Competition


From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 25th October 2013

Competition

The UK-Analyst Friday Competition is back. For your chance to win a copy of How the Trading Floor Really Works by Terri Duhon (RRP 29.99) send your funniest caption for the picture of George Osborne below. Send your entry to richard.gill@t1ps.com by 9am on Monday morning.

The Markets

The UK economy expanded by 0.8% over the July-September quarter, representing the best quarterly growth reading in over three years. The data from the Office for National Statistics builds on the 0.7% growth which was exhibited over the second quarter of the year and suggests that the economic recovery is well and truly underway. It is now thought that the increasing pace of the recovery could help to increase employment which, in turn, could mean that interest rates increase sooner than the 3 year prediction which has been put forward by some economists. Graeme Leach, Chief Economist at The Institute of Directors, said, "The outlook looks better than at any time since the onset of the financial crisis. Indeed, our members have more confidence in the economy than at any time since 2008."

The world's largest software company Microsoft posted a 17% increase in profits to 3.2 billion pounds for the three months ended 30th September. The technology giant's numbers were boosted by the performance of its business division and the continued strong level of demand for Xboxes and related services. The results will sooth investors' fears on the demise of the PC market and how this could affect future earnings by re-affirming just how lucrative Microsoft's other operations can potentially become. Daniel Morgan, a fund manager at Synovus Trust Co in the US, commented, "I thought this was going to be a quiet quarter because we are waiting to see what Surface 2 does at holiday, and waiting for a new CEO, Windows 8 traction and all these things, but it was a very strong quarter."

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At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 35.35 points at 15,544.56 and the Nasdaq was up by 19.03 points to 3,381.40.

In London the FTSE 100 closed up by 8.16 points at 6,721.34 and the FTSE 250 was down by 35.30 points at 15,491.63. The FTSE All-Share was up by 2.97 points at 3,581.33 while the FTSE AIM Index inched up by 2.03 points at 802.30.

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Broker Notes

Cantor Fitzgerald stuck with its "buy" recommendation on industrial manufacturer Sweett Group (CSG), increasing its target price from 420p to 430p. The broker was impressed with the group's recent IMS which suggested that the firm's automotive operations could surprise on the upside. Moreover, Cantor feels that the 12.8 earnings multiple on which the shares trade represents an undemanding valuation for a company who could be buoyed by healthy levels of growth from the BRIC economies. The shares remained flat at 51p.

Panmure Gordon initiated coverage on Royal Mail Group (RMG) with a "buy" recommendation and 570p target price. The broker acknowledges the astronomical price rise since the IPO but is adamant that there is still meaningful upside potential on a 12 month view and beyond. Panmure elaborates and says that the company is sufficiently protected from risks such as e-distribution and competition. The shares swelled by 26p to 555p.

N+1 Singer maintained its "buy" recommendation on pawnbroker H&T Group (HAT) with a target price of 164p. The broker notes that Alex Maby, Finance Director, is leaving the group to move to a new position elsewhere. Although aware of market headwinds and a decline in the underlying gold price, N+1 Singer feels that Maby leaves the company in a strong position to capitalise on longer term structural opportunities. The shares slid by 0.125p to 146.625p.

Blue Chips

Security group Serco (SRP) has revealed that CEO Chris Hyman has decided to step down amid allegations that the company overcharged the UK government for providing electronic tags for criminals. The announcement was accompanied by news that the company is set to change its structure, re-organising in such a way so that government-related work is operated separately and can be monitored more closely. The shares jumped by 5p to 557.5p.

Mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO) confirmed that it has sold its 50.1% interest in the Clermont Joint Venture to GS Coal Pty Ltd, an entity which is owned by GlencoreXstrata. This latest transaction means that Rio Tinto has now announced or completed $2.915 billion (1.8 billion pounds) of divestments this year as the company looks to streamline its portfolio against the backdrop of volatile commodity prices. The shares were down by 12.5p at 3,222.5p.

Mid Caps

Chemicals group Elementis (ELM) claimed that it is on track to meet market expectations for the full year, boosted by "more normal trading patterns" in the oilfield drilling market. Over the three months ended 30th September the group recorded 12% growth in sales as the impact of acquisitions in Brazil and the US fed through to overall results. The update comes after both Berenberg Bank and Canaccord Genuity re-iterated their "buy" recommendations earlier this week. The shares grew by 22.1p to 266.4p.

Metal engineer Vesuvius (VSVS) also said that trading since the beginning of July has been in line with market expectations. The company explained that it was benefitting from its efforts to streamline its portfolio in a bid to combat the reduced demand for steel, especially in Europe. However, the firm's foundry division has performed "marginally below" the prior year period as weakness persists in both the global mining and North American railroad markets. The shares slid by 5.6p to 485p.

Investor SVG Capital (SVI) reported a 3.5% increase in NAV per share to 497.2p over the July-September quarter, with the company's portfolio building on the positive momentum of the last few years. Looking ahead, SVG said that it has a strong pipeline of potential investment opportunities on both a short term and long term basis. The update comes after Espirito Santo Execution Noble retained its "buy" stance and 538p target price earlier this week. The shares were up by 6p at 404p.

Small Caps

Software group Sanderson* (SND) revealed that trading over the year ended 30th September has been in line with market expectations, with revenues and gross margin both on the up. The former sponsor of Sheffield Wednesday went on to praise its investment in its product offering as it looks to tap into the lucrative multi-channel retail and ecommerce markets. However, the firm did warn that its outlook continues to be uncertain with business confidence remaining on the fragile side. The shares fell by 0.75p to 63.25p.

Drinks brand owner Blavod Wines and Spirits (BES) revealed that it will be promoting RedLeg Spiced Rum with pop-up Rum Shacks across the UK. The initiative is part of Blavod's plans to raise the brand awareness of its Redleg rum product, a drink which has exhibited month on month sales growth since its launch back in 2012. Progressive Equity Research initiated coverage on Blavod Wines with a "buy" recommendation. The shares surged by 0.2p at 1.325p.

Forbidden Technologies* (FBT), the owner of a cloud based video editing platform, announced that Channel 5 has bought a FORscene server after a six month trial. The Channel 5 staff were apparently impressed with the product after using it to edit its "Go Hard or Go Home" program. The financial details of the arrangement were not disclosed to the market. The shares increased in price by 2.5p to 33.5p.

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Surveillance group Digital Barriers (DGB) revealed that its video management package has been sold to an unnamed public transportation network in the Asia-Pacific region. The contract is thought to be worth in the region of 750,000 pounds with the revenues to be recognised in both this financial year and next. Separately, the group confirmed that it has secured a paid trial for its TVI video surveillance product to be used in the Middle East. The shares were up by 4p at 151.5p.

Oil producer Antrim Energy (AEY) announced that oil production has continued in the Causeway and Cormorant East fields in the North Sea. The news will be welcomed by investors who have had to endure an overrun of maintenance work on both fields. Looking ahead, Antrim confirmed that production rates from the Causeway field is now expected to rise over the course of the year as a result of the use of electrical submersible pumps coupled with water injection methods. The shares shot up by 0.86p to 7.11p.

Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) generated its first revenues in the year to May as its flagship Logbaba gas and condensate field in Cameroon began to produce. However, the firm's loss before tax more than doubled from $7.73 million (4.8 million pounds) to $15.94 million(9.9 million pounds) as the costs associated with this new level of production weighed heavy on the group. However, the Africa-focused company insisted that upcoming cost-cutting measures would help to start convert these new revenues into profit. The shares slipped by 0.08p to 1.06p.

* Sanderson and Forbidden Technologies are corporate clients of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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