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Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Wednesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Alex Ferguson, Petra Diamonds and San Leon Energy



From UK-Analyst.com: Wednesday 8th May 2013

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The Markets

Chinese exports rose by 14.7% year-on-year in April. The month also saw March's trade deficit reversed to a $18.2 billion (11.7 billion pounds) surplus despite a 16.8% iron and oil-fuelled uplift in imports over the month. The data suggests that the world's second largest economy may be improving after recent data revealed a far from expected slowdown in growth from 7.9% to 7.7%, numbers which prompted the World Bank and private sector analysts to trim forecasts for full-year growth to 8%. Although the figures appear to be promising, some analysts feel that the data may be unreliable as companies attempt to avoid capital controls and encourage external investment. Shen Lan, an Economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai, commented, "With Beijing tightening checks on hot money inflows disguised as trade transactions, I think the export figures in the coming months will more reflect the real underlying momentum of external demand."

The latest research into the UK housing market has shown that house prices continue to rise. According to figures from mortgage lender Halifax, property prices were up by 1.1% in March on February, implying a year-on-year increase of 2%. It is thought that the steady underlying rise is consistent with the fact that average mortgage payments for new borrowers have nearly halved as a proportion of disposable earnings, from a peak of 48% in 2007 to 28% now. Halifax's Housing Economist Martin Ellis explained, "The relatively low level of mortgage payments in relation to income continues to provide support for the market." However, Ellis went on to warn, "Weak income growth and continuing below-trend economic growth are likely to remain significant constraints on housing demand during the remainder of 2013."

Industrial output in Germany grew in March, suggesting that the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone's largest economy is regaining momentum. Official figures revealed that industrial output grew by 1.2% on the previous month despite recent figures which revealed an increased unemployment rate of 6.9% in March. ING senior economist Carsten Brzeski said, "It looks as if the outlook for German industry is clearing slowly but surely. There's a lot of contradictory signs... but industrial production looks OK - we will get out of the contraction of the fourth quarter and though we're not accelerating as much as in 2010, we won't have a recession."

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 10.27 points at 15,066.47 and the Nasdaq was 12.88 points higher at 2,965.76.

In London the FTSE 100 grew by 26.18 points to 6,583.48; the FTSE 250 finished 91.86 points higher at 14,193.28; the FTSE All-Share swelled by 16.33 points to 3,467.85; and the FTSE AIM Index slipped by 0.78 point to 714.63.

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Broker Notes

Canaccord Genuity retained its "buy" recommendation on security firm G4S (GFS) but lowered its target price from 325p to 300p. The broker feels that the reduction of full year forecasts in the firm's recent trading statement suggests that management has been too optimistic on the pace of economic recovery in central Europe. However, Canaccord feels that that the shares are still attractive on a fundamental basis and believes that the company's capital markets day on 25th June will highlight medium-term growth opportunities. The shares slid by 0.4p to 259.6p.

Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its "buy" recommendation on supermarket Sainsbury's (SBRY) with a 390p target price. The broker was impressed with today's results which revealed profits were slightly ahead of expectations, boosted by an increased trading margin. Moreover, Cantor feels that Sainsbury's has an exciting opportunity to further improve margins through expansion of its local stores, gaining complete control of its banking arm and strategic additions to its UK superstore portfolio. The shares fell by 15.5p to 381p.

N+1 Singer re-iterated its "buy" recommendation on audio technology group Wolfson Microelectronics (WLF), lowering its target price from 240p to 222p. The broker has lowered its target price based on slower progress towards industry operating margins. However, it retains its "buy" stance based on the pipeline of customer product launches and the design-in momentum which, according to N+1 Singer, should help boost both sales and margins in the short-medium term. The shares edged 3p higher to 205p.

Blue-Chips

Sir Alex Ferguson, manager of Manchester United (MANU), confirmed that he is to retire at the end of this season, marking the end of the most prolific career in UK football management. The development comes after the club recently announced a 31.9% increase in revenues for the third quarter, confirming it was on track to generate revenues of between 350 million pounds to 360 million pounds for the full year. Shareholders will now wait with baited breath on who the club will chose to lead it going into next season. Current Everton manager David Moyes is the odds-on bookies favourite. At the London close, the New York Stock Exchange listed shares were down by $0.29 at $18.48.

Financial services group Standard Chartered (STAN) declared that operating profit over the first three months of the year will be below the recorded 2012 figure in a fall driven by increased staff costs. The group - which earns around 80% of its income from Asia - claimed that double digit income growth in Hong Kong and Africa was offset by a weaker performance in Korea and Singapore. Despite this warning, analysts at Bank of America and Espirito Santo Execution both retained their "buy" recommendations on the group. The shares dived by 75p to 1,625p.

Building materials group CRH (CRH) revealed that like-for-like sales were down by 12% over the first four months of 2013, in a dip which was blamed on a weak economic climate in Europe and prolonged wintery conditions. The group highlighted its Spanish and Irish markets as particularly challenging but did stress that business in Switzerland and Finland was showing signs of progress. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, CRH expects earnings to pick up as positive underlying construction trends in the US helped to offset downward pricing pressures in Europe. The shares slipped by 51p to 1,384p.

Business management software firm Sage Group (SAGE) posted a pre-tax loss of 7.7 million pounds for the 6 months ended 31st March after recording a profit of 167.1 million pounds in the previous year. The loss was due to exceptional items surrounding the disposal of non-core products. Stripping out the effect of this, pre-tax profits were actually up by 6% at 184.9 million pounds as the uptake of its products continues to be strong. Separately, the group has confirmed that its CFO, Paul Harrison, will be leaving the company on August 30th to join AIM listed WANdisco as CFO. The shares crept upwards by 7.7p to 347p.

Mid Caps

Diamond miner Petra Diamonds (PDL) announced that production over the first three months of 2013 was up by 4% at 627,248 carats and re-affirmed that it is on track to meet its FY2013 production target of 2.65 million carats. Since the end of the period, the company announced that it had recovered a 25.5 carat blue diamond at the Cullinan mine in South Africa and today confirmed that it is exploring the various routes to market for this rare stone. The shares remained unchanged at 106.3p.

Wireless technology group CSR (CSR) announced a 5% uplift in revenues to $237.9 million (152.87 million pounds) for the 13 weeks ended 29th March while operating profit stood at $19.1 million (12.3 million), up from the $2.7 million (1.7 million pounds) which was recorded for the previous year. The improvement in performance was driven by a strong growth in revenues from within its mono audio business in China, boosted by the enforcement of hands-free driving legislation. Broker JP Morgan retained its "overweight" stance on the shares yesterday. The shares were up by 24.5p at 541.5p.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH) announced a 14.6% increase in revenues for the first three months of the year, partly driven by 69.8% growth in revenues from its European operations. However, revenues from Dechra's US operations were down by 14.4% over the period in a performance which was adversely affected by supply problems from a third party manufacturer. The shares were down by 19p at 693p.

Small Caps

Bus manufacturer Optare (OPE) revealed that it has entered into a partnership with Dawsonrentals bus and coach for the provision of 50 Optare Solo buses for delivery over the next six months. Under the agreement, Optare will assist Dawson's by creating an outlet for its used vehicles in countries where the initial purchase price may be an obstacle to the acquisition of brand new buses. The financial details of the deal were not released to the market. The shares grew by 0.025p to 0.375p.

Oil and gas exploration group San Leon Energy (SLE)announced that it has signed a framework agreement with United Oilfield Services to provide hydraulic well fracturing services for its Baltic Basin wells in Poland. As part of the deal United Oilfield Services will carry out drilling and stimulation services in exchange for an unspecified combination of cash and shares. The update prompted broker Fox-Davies Capital to retain its "buy" recommendation and 25p target price. The shares gained 0.61p, finishing the day at 7.5p.

Oil and gas detection technology specialist Vialogy (VIA) has signed a contract with a subsidiary of Singapore-based Gente Oil Global, Pte. Ltd. to use its QuantumRD seismic interpretation technology in the Oriente Basin offshore Ecuador. The Oriente Basin of Ecuador is a prolific producing field with nearly 3 billion barrels recovered over the past 20 years. The shares increased by 0.075p to 1.375p.

Gold explorer Sovereign Mines of Africa (SMA) has started the third phase of drilling at its flagship Mandiana-Magana gold project in eastern Guinea. The programme in question is projected to involve 8,000 metres of drilling and the initial assay results should be available in June, with the maiden inferred resource predicted to be known sometime within Q3 this year. The shares were down by 0.25p at 2.25p.

Oil exploration group Rialto Energy (RIA) has received confirmation from Tap Oil that it meets all of the criteria under its farm-in agreement for the acquisition of a 12.5% working interest the Offshore Accra Contract Area, Ghana. Under the agreement Rialto will share the costs for the drilling of the upcoming Starfish-1 exploration well in the Accra Block with Tap Oil. According to Ophir Energy, the Starfish Well-1 operator, the well holds 292mmbbls of gross prospective un-risked mean resource. The shares were up by 0.13p at 3.15p.

Power company Rurelec (RUR) has been granted full environmental consent for its Central Illapa Power Plant in Chile to be built. The Central Illapa plant will be situated in Mejillones, one of the key power hubs on the transmission system of the Chilean power grid which serves the mining region in the north of Chile. The group went on to stress that it is on track to own over 1,250MW of new Clean Tech power generation capacity in Chile and to become a constituent of the Santiago Stock Exchange. The shares swelled by 0.25p to 13.125p.

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