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Friday, May 31, 2013

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Eurozone Unemployment Woes, Smiths Group, Bumi and 2ergo

From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 31st May 2013

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The Markets

Unemployment in the Eurozone hit yet another record high in April with a staggering one-in-four under 25s out of work across the region. According to Eurostat, the statistics office of the European Union, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stood at 12.2% in April, up from 12.1% in March as 95,000 more people were out of a job. The worrisome figures come just days after Eurozone leaders announced plans to get more young people into work as a means of safeguarding the longevity of the region's different economies. Martin van Vliet of ING financial markets warned "An end to the Eurozone labour market downturn is not yet in sight. Even if the Eurozone economy exits from recession later this year, the labour market is likely to remain in recession until next year."

Just days after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cut its UK economic growth prediction for this year from 0.9% to 0.8%, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) conversely increased its own growth projections from 0.6% to 0.9%. The BCC, which represents around 104,000 business members, also increased its longer term forecasts for growth, estimating GDP growth of 2.5% in 2015, higher than the originally anticipated 2.4%. However, the BCC went on to warn that the pace of the current "recovery" is bound to remain slow for the time being, arguing that the economy is still plagued with both domestic and international challenges. BCC director general John Longworth commented " The upward revision in our growth forecasts is encouraging. Unfortunately, this does not change the fact that economic growth is still too weak and the pace of recovery will remain unduly slow for a while yet."

Over in Asia, official data has revealed that the Indian economy grew by 5% during the 2012/13 financial year - the slowest growth exhibited in a decade but in line with analyst estimates. The slump was blamed on high inflation, weak export demand and falling foreign investment as investors shy away over delays on key industrial reforms. A breakdown of the figures revealed that the services sector, which accounts for over a half of the nation's economy, expanded by 6.6% over the period while the mining sector contracted by 3.1%. Radhika Rao, an Economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore warned, "Growth is weak and I am sceptical about a sharp bounce-back anytime soon. The Reserve Bank of India will be cautious about retail inflation and the high current-account deficit."

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 27.34 points at 15,351.87 and the Nasdaq was 8.14 points higher at 3,019.97.

In London the FTSE 100 finished down by 73.90 points at 6583.09; the FTSE 250 dropped by 91.82 points to 14,350.92; the FTSE All-Share lost 35.90 points to 3,473.82; and the FTSE AIM Index slid by 0.47 points to 729.91.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on recruiter Harvey Nash (HVN) with a target price of 99p. The broker feels that further attention to the cost base and a growing element of outsourcing business should ensure that the current year is at least as good in profit terms. Although Panmure acknowledges that the Q1 results exposed operating profit levels below its FY assumptions, it envisages a distinct pick up in Q2 momentum and therefore remains a buyer of the shares. The shares inched up by 1p to 72p.

Canaccord Genuity maintained its "buy" recommendation on financial services group Close Brothers Group (CBG) with a target price of 1320p. The broker was impressed with yesterday's presentation on the group's banking division which highlighted the importance of Close Brothers' lending principles - the main driver of margins and profits according to Canaccord. Moreover, the broker expects CBG's loan book growth to moderate from 20% in FY12 to under 14% going forward but remaining above the 10 year average growth rate of 11% as the credit environment remains favourable. The shares fell by 14p to 992p.

Shore Capital reiterated its "buy" recommendation on Indian Power supplier OPG Ventures (OPG), expecting a flow of good news throughout the year. The broker is impressed that construction of the new generating capacity appears ahead of schedule at both the Chennai and in Gujarat projects – potentially pulling through material upgrades to its forecasts post FY2014. This is even more encouraging, according to the broker, as OPG does not need any additional capital to complete this current strategic infrastructure plan. The shares remained unchanged at 66p.

Blue-Chips

Metals giant Polymetal (POLY) confirmed that it has completed the acquisition of the remaining 75.01% of CJSC Nevyansk Group after receiving the relevant regulatory approval. The acquired group is the holder of the platinum mining and exploration licences in the Svetlobor area in Russia. Polymetal will pay $6.9 million (4.54 million pounds) cash to owners CJSC VTB Capital plus interest from the date of VTB Capital's acquisition at the rate of 7.25 per annum equalling approximately $0.2 million (0.13 million pounds). The shares crept up by 0.5p to 690.5p.

Engineering firm Smiths Group (SMIN) revealed that it is in talks to sell its medical division but stressed that there is no certainty that any offer will be made. Smiths rejected an approach by private equity group Apax to buy the division for 2.45 billion pounds back in 2011, arguing that the offer did not reflect the value of the business. Smith's medical division, which accounted for around a third of the group's operating profit in 2012, is most famous for playing a role in the first successful IVF treatment in 1978 with its embryo transfer. The shares slipped by 11p to 1,379p.

Flight operator Tui Travel (TT.) announced that it has committed to spending 6.1 billion dollars (4 billion pounds) on 60 new aircraft with the option to acquire a further 60 at the same price if the programme goes well. Tui claimed the new planes would not only be more comfortable for passengers but less harmful to the environment as the new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft are 13% more fuel efficient. Brokers seem to be undecided on the future of the group with Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse allocating Tui Travel with "equal weight" and "neutral" stances respectively. The shares tumbled by 4.5p to 358.5p.

Mid Caps

Property group LondonMetric (LMP) posted a 105% increase in adjusted pre-tax profits to 39.9 million pounds for the year ended 31st March in a reflection of the impact of the merger between London & Stamford Property and Metric Property two months before the end of the period. The enlarged group, which now has a focus on out-of-town retail properties, went on to confirm that it plans to reduce its investments in the City of London in an attempt to "crystallise the position of those assets." The shares nudged upwards by 0.1p to 114.6p.

Mining group Bumi (BUMI) revealed a $2.4 billion (1.58 billion pounds) loss before tax in 2012 as it wrote down the value of its PT Berau and PT Bumi mining operating subsidiaries by a combined $2.2 billion (1.45 billion pounds). On a more positive note, Bumi delivered a 27% increase in coal production to 5.3mt which helped to offset a sharp fall in coal price over the period. Looking ahead, the miners said that an upcoming management shake-up would include appointing a independent group chairman which would head up a "smaller, revamped board" on which a Jakarta-based chief financial officer and chief mining officer would sit. The shares stayed put at 259.3p.

Small Caps

Film distributor Metrodome (MRM) revealed it swung into a full-year loss of 0.87 million pounds in 2012 from a profit of 0.41 million pounds in 2011. The primary driver in this fall was a slump in DVD revenues with rental revenues down by 17.2% and a loss of sales to HMV. Metrodome also confirmed that it intends to de-list its shares from the AIM market, arguing that the listing is too costly and requires too much of management's time to maintain. The shares plummeted by 0.18p to 0.15p.

Property developer and project manager Formation Group (FRM) saw its revenues more than double to 2.36 million pounds over the six months ended 28th February, narrowing its loss before tax from 491,000 pounds to 103,000 pounds. The firm cited an increase in clients for the improving trend which saw operating losses slashed from 480,000 pounds to 72,000 pounds. The shares soared by 0.5p to 1.4p.

Mobile technology group 2 ergo Group (RGO) booked revenues of 2.3 million pounds over the six months ended 28th February, down from the 4.8 million pounds which was booked in the previous year in a trend which resulted in gross profits falling by two-thirds to 0.6 million pounds. The group's focus over the period has been its Podifi technology which allows people to pay for things in stores using their mobile phone. The group went on to stress that it expects sales and profits to recover as the roll out of this technology accelerates. The shares jumped by 0.5p to 3.38p.

Jeweller Theo Fennell (THEO) announced that the deadline for discussions on a potential takeover by EME Capital LLP has been extended to 28th June 2013. The original deadline for a conclusion on negotiations was today. However, after the board requested more time, management stressed that the anticipated timetable for the completion of these discussions is consistent with the newly extended deadline. The shares dropped 0.38p to 8.13p.

Miners Herencia Resources (HER) revealed that the feasibility study for its Paguanta project in Chile has validated the viability of the zinc, silver and lead deposit. The company said that it is targeting 2015 for first production from Paguanta, which will involve a capital outlay of 60 million dollars (39.5 million pounds), of which the company's share is 42 million dollars (27.66 million pounds). Currently, Beaufort securities has a "speculative buy" stance on the company. The shares dropped by 0.065p to 0.75p.

Publishing group Totally (TLY) announced an uplift in pre-tax profits from 110,000 pounds to 647,000 pounds in 2012 despite revenues almost doubling to 1.6 million pounds. The plunge deeper into the red came as a result of an increase in administrative expenses and a surge in the cost of sales as the group aimed at extending its reach into the Healthcare IT market. The group was keen to stress that the fundraise in the latter part of last year is now enabling it to comfortably "meet the ongoing challenges of its enhanced contractual responsibilities" as it wins more clients. The shares lost 0.1p, finishing the day at 1.55p.

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