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Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring retail meltdown, AstraZeneca, Victrex and ReNeuron

 

From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 28th May 2013

The Markets

According to new research from the Centre for Retail Research (CRR), around 20% of UK retail stores could be closed by 2018 if the shift to online shopping continues to accelerate. The mass shutdown could result in 316,000 job losses across the UK with Wales predicted to be hit particularly hard. The forecast is based on the fact that the share of consumer spending going to the high street is falling - coming down from 50% in 2000 to an estimated 40.2% next year. The report paints a bleak picture for UK retail, revealing that although consumer spending has increased by 12% since 2006, operating costs have risen on average by an even pacier 20%. Joshua Bamfield of the Centre for Retail Research warned "If no action is taken, store vacancy rates could almost double to 24 per cent. Already this year, 16 major retailers have gone into administration operating 1,985 shops and employing 14,719 staff."

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Over in Europe, French consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, according to French statistics agency Insee. The agency's monthly consumer confidence index for May fell from 83 to 79, drifting further below the long term average of 100. The fall confounded economist's expectations of a two-point rise to 85 as the public's opinion on its future financial prospects continued to worsen in May. The data comes just weeks after figures revealed that the French economy had slipped into recession for the second time in four years in a gloomy trend which was widely mirrored throughout the continent. Jeremy Cook at currency exchange group World First commented "This morning's consumer confidence number from France has missed expectations massively..and could easily see further declines in European assets"

South Africa's economy grew at its slowest pace since 2009 over the first three months of the year in a fall driven by a significant slump in manufacturing output. Africa's largest economy grew by an annualised 0.9% between January and March, down from the 2.1% growth which was posted for the previous three months and well below the average analyst estimate of 1.6% growth. The figures from Statistics South Africa revealed that the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 15% of the country's overall economy, contracted by an annualized 7.9% in the first quarter as maintenance and fire-related production delays took their toll. Elna Moolman, an Economist at Maquarie Bank commented "Some of the weakness in the first quarter was owing to temporary disruptions, which underpinned the sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector, and the economy should ultimately recover from those."

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 184.65 points at 15,487.75 and the Nasdaq had increased by 38.75 points to 3,029.77.

In London the FTSE 100 was up by 107.67 points to 6,762.01; the FTSE 250 finished 229.39 points higher at 14,622.40; the FTSE All-Share grew by 56.10 points to 3,562.66; and the FTSE AIM Index inched up by 3.08 points to 728.08.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" recommendation on home improvement retailer Kingfisher (KGF) with a target price of 327p. The broker does concede that it expects Q1 profits to fall because of unfavourable weather and weak underlying market conditions. However, Panmure sees see a significant group scale leverage opportunity, combined with the future benefit to profits as its markets improve for the B&Q owner. The broker goes on to cite the impact of increased spend on homes as, when and if the housing market recovers as further justification for its "buy" stance. The shares advanced by 3p to 330p.

Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its "buy" recommendation on oil and gas exploration group Egdon Resources (EDR) with a target price of 17p. The broker notes that Egdon has now agreed terms with Blackland Park and Stelinmatvic Industries for a farm-in to UK Licence PEDL209 located in Lincolnshire. Cantor believes that this marks another important milestone in Egdon's strategy of acquiring and de-risking key UK onshore acreage, stressing that there is potential for significant shale-gas resources to be present within parts of the licence. The shares crept upwards by 0.25p, finishing the day at 8.88p.

Daniel Stewart retained its "buy" recommendation on interactive gaming firm NetPlay TV (NPT) with a target price of 25p. The broker is encouraged with today's announcement which revealed that average daily net revenues show an increase on the same period last year with revenues up by a total of 39% over the first quarter of the year. Furthermore, Daniel Stewart points to the "undemanding" FY13 EBITDA multiple of 6.7 on which the shares currently trade as being inconsistent with the double digit growth which the group is currently delivering. The shares remained unchanged at 17.63p.

Blue-Chips

Energy services firm Wood Group (WG.) revealed that its PSN business will continue to manage the Hummingbird Spirit floating storage offloading production (FPSO) vessel in the North Sea in an extension of an existing contract worth around 56 million pounds. The contract extension covers the remainder of this year and includes an option to extend until March 2015. Wood group has provided holder and asset management services to the North Sea FPSO since it was commissioned back in 2008. The shares climbed by 17p to 845p.

Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca (AZN) confirmed that it is continuing to appeal against a US court ruling which branded the patent protecting the intellectual rights around its Pulmicort Repulses asthma-fighting product as invalid. On this basis, the US Court of Appeals has issued a temporary injunction blocking generic manufacturers from distributing generic versions of Pulmicort Repulses in the US. In exchange, Astrazeneca has been ordered to post a bond in the amount of $72 million (47.8 million pounds). Separately, the group confirmed it has acquired Omthera Pharmaceuticals for $323 million (214.6 million pounds). Omthera is focused on the development and commercialisation of new therapies for abnormal levels of lipids in the blood. The shares jumped by 93.5p to 3,521.5p.


Mid Caps

Soft drinks producer A.G Barr (BAG) announced that revenues generated over the 15 weeks ended 12th May were up by 2.4% on the previous year despite the soft drinks market as a whole remaining flat over the period. The Tizer and Irn-Bru brand owner went on to claim that it has made "excellent progress" with the construction of extra operating capacity at Milton Keynes and confirmed that it expects to host an analyst visit at the site by the end of this summer. Investec was not overly impressed with the update and downgraded its "buy" recommendation to an "add" stance. The shares fizzed 4.5p higher to 574.5p.

Polymer Manufacturer Victrex (VCT) posted 1% growth in group revenues to 106.4 million pounds over the 6 months ended 31st March in a performance boosted by growth in European sales. This increase in European sales helped to offset reduced sales in both the US and Asia which suffered from falls in demand from the oil and gas sector and the turbulent Japanese economy respectively. Looking ahead, the company revealed that it is confident on its short-to-medium term prospects, revealing that the improved sales volume from its second quarter has been sustained in recent weeks. The shares surged by 137p to 1,765p.

HICL Infrastructure (HICL) revealed that it has completed two investments worth a combined 41.6 million pounds, increasing the number of investments in its portfolio to 85. Firstly, the group has acquired a 39% equity stake in the South West Hospital Enniskillen PFI Project from FCC Construction in an attempt to capitalise on plans to design, construct, finance and maintain a new hospital on a greenfield site in Northern Ireland. Secondly, the group also confirmed it has acquired 50% equity in the University of Sheffield Project from InfraRed Infrastructure Fund II. The shares slipped by 1.9p to 128.1p.

Small Caps

Stem cell specialist ReNeuron (RENE) revealed that results from tests on its ReN001 stem cell therapy medication show "Sustained reductions in neurological impairment" and confirmed that "no cell-related or immunological adverse events" were reported. The group will present the interim data from 9 initial trial subjects at the European Stroke Conference this week. If further tests are successful, ReN001 offers the potential for a degree of recovery of function in disabled stroke patients according to Renueron and would therefore be a huge breakthrough in this field of medicine. The shares swelled by 0.4p to 2.85p.

Transense Technologies (TRT), the provider of sensor systems, announced that it has received an order worth $450,000 (299,000 pounds) from ETT for the provision of its IS485 family of wireless electrical switchgear monitoring products. Management expects further orders of a similar magnitude in the coming year based on increased sales momentum as market awareness of the benefits of its products grows. The shares climbed 1.38p to 13p.

Energy efficiency specialist Sabien Technology (SNT) has secured a new order to install its M2G boiler efficiency technology across the Ministry of Defence South East Regional Prime Contract. Sabien went on to confirm that a significant amount of these orders will be recognised in this financial year with installation work having already commenced at a number of sites. The update prompted Westhouse Securities to retain its "buy" recommendation on the company with a target price of 50p. The shares jumped 5.5p, ending the day at 26p.

Security technology firm Westminster Group (WSG) posted revenues of 9.5 million pounds for 2012, down from the 10.1 million pounds which was recorded for 2011. The firm attributed this downturn in revenue to the deferral of certain revenues from within its technology division into the 2013 recording period. Despite this fall in revenues, the company's operating loss fell from 1.63 million pounds to 1.21 million pounds in an improvement driven by the impact of a contract won to supply airport security in Africa and a new deal to provide an electronic countermeasures system for the police force in the Middle East. The shares slid by 1.5p to 38.5p.

Sports Stars Media (SPSM) has signed a TV deal with Portuguese broadcaster SIC for the cartoon series featuring football manager Jose Mourinho. Under the agreement, the broadcaster will air TV versions of "Mourinho and the Special ones" exclusively for a one year period. Although the fine details of the agreement were not disclosed Sports Stars Media is adamant that the revenue share formula in place will maximise benefit to both itself and SIC. The shares finished up by 0.05p at 0.75p.

Camkids (CAMK), the Chinese clothing designer, today confirmed that trading across all of its divisions has been in line with expectations for the current financial year. The group, which was admitted to AIM in December last year, also revealed that a fifth production line has now become operational in a move which was in line with its strategy of using some of the December fundraise to increase production capacity. The shares ended the day 2.2p ahead at 109.2p.

 

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