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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Thursday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring Direct Line, WH Smith and Rangers FC


From UK-Analyst.com: Thursday 11th October
2012

The Markets

Unemployment in Greece reached a new record of 25.1% in July, up from 24.8% in June, with youth unemployment standing at a staggering 54.2%. With the country in a deep recession and further austerity cuts on the way, many believe that these figures will most likely be pushed higher. Meanwhile, a number of organisations in Germany have cut their growth forecasts for the country from 2% to just 1% in the next financial year. Voices were also raised against the European Central Bank's unlimited bond purchasing policy, claiming that it would merely serve to drive up inflation and may result in a loss of trust. There was good news from the US, where initial jobless figures fell to 339,000 in the week ended 6th October, according to figures from the Labor Department, the lowest since February 2008.

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 44.97 points at 13,389.94 and the Nasdaq was up by 7.86 points at 2,736.40.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 53.04 points to 5,829.75; the FTSE 250 finished 70.07 points ahead at 11,898.39; the FTSE All-Share gained 27.42 points to 3,045.18; and the FTSE AIM Index climbed by 3.34 points to 703.85.

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Broker Notes

Seymour Pierce upgraded its stance on JD Sports Fashion (JD.) from "hold" to "buy" with an increased target price of 1,000p, from 800p. The broker noted that the sporting goods retailer's shares have underperformed the sector by nearly 30% over the last year, claiming that the firm's core business is now valued at just 5.7 times earnings for the 2013 financial year. Seymour Pierce believes the firm will now need to focus on disposing of non-performing brands and accelerating its overseas expansion. Shares in JD Sports inched up by 1p to 760p.

Panmure Gordon reiterated its "sell" recommendation for Mothercare (MTC) with a 149p target price. The broker expects the maternity and childrenswear company to report a 10% decline in UK sales in its second quarter, offset by a 17% rise internationally. Panmure said that the firm faces intense competition from specialist stores as well as major supermarkets, making it very difficult for it to retain its UK market share and that the division will continue to lose money for the next three years. The shares declined by 4p to 209.75p.

Northland Capital maintained its "buy" rating for Centamin (CEY) but raised its target price from 105p to 125p. The broker increased its expected peak gold price by 14% to 2,000 dollars (1,246.7 pounds) per ounce, which in turn raised the miner's peak net asset value to 191p per share. Northland also believes that resource upgrades are highly likely as the firm continues its exploration programme. The broker noted that if group is able to deliver on its 250,000 ounce production target for 2012 and commissioning of its stage 4 expansion to 10 million tonnes per annum in the first quarter of 2013 that this would significantly derisk the business. Centamin shares jumped by 5.1p to 101.9p.

Blue-Chips

Burberry Group (BRBY) reported revenues of 883 million pounds for the six months ended 30th September, up 6% on 2011's comparable performance, driven by 9% growth in its retail division. However, the fashion retailer noted that trading slowed in the second quarter, with total growth of just 3%, to 475 million pounds. During the first half, the fashion retailer opened 13 new stores, adding that it expects second half average selling space to increase by around 14%. Separately, the firm confirmed the termination of its deal with Interparfums, stating that it will now directly operate its fragrance range, incurring a one off cost of 181 million euros (145.3 million pounds). Burberry shares surged by 130p to 1,133p.

Direct Line Group announced that the price for its initial public offering has been set at 175p, falling short of the originally expected average of 177.5p, meaning that on admission the insurance company will have a market capitalisation of around 2.6 billion pounds. Around 30% of the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) owned company's shares will be issued and dealing is expected to begin on 16th October 2012. There is also a 15% over-allotment option which, if exercised, would leave RBS with a holding of 65.3%. RBS shares gained 5.4p to 268.1p, while on the "grey" market Direct Line shares saw highs of up to 185p.

Investment fund Ashmore Group (ASHM) announced that its assets under management increased by around 4.3 billion dollars (2.7 billion pounds) in the three months ended 30th September to 68 billion dollars (42.5 billion pounds). The firm said that this was largely driven by positive investment performance of 3.7 billion dollars (2.3 billion pounds), while it also saw net inflows of 0.6 billion dollars (0.37 billion ponds). The shares crept up by 2.4p to 358.6p.

Fresh after announcing the breakdown of merger talks with EADS, BAE Systems (BA.) said that trading in the period from 1st July to 10th October was in-line with expectations and anticipates reporting "modest growth in underlying earnings per share" for the 2012 financial year. The firm noted that it continued its streamlining programme, having sold its Safariland and Tensylon High Performance Materials business for a combined consideration of 88 million pounds. BAE shares ascended by 5.6p to 326.5p.

Mid-Caps

Shares in Bumi (BUMI) spiked up by 91.3p to 277p after the Bakrie Group offered to cancel its 23.8% holding in the mining company in exchange for a stake of equal value in its subsidiary PT Bumi Resources, which has been plagued by rumours of financial irregularities. In addition, the Bakrie Group has offered to buy Bumi's remaining holding in the business as well as its 84.7% stake in PT Berau Coal Energy, for a cash consideration.

Greggs (GRG) reported sales growth of 5.9% for the quarter ended 6th October as it opened 37 net new stores in the period, bringing its total to 1,641. However, the baker's like-for-like sales slid by 2.6%, which it attributed to constraints on consumer spending as well as the heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, the firm said that it continued to enjoy success with its wholesaling and franchising agreements with Iceland and Moto Hospitality. The shares lost 16p to 500.5p.

High street retailer WH Smith (SMWH) announced pre-tax profits of 102 million pounds for the year ended 31st August, up 10% on 2011's performance, driven by its travel division, which now has 619 units. The firm noted that it generated free cash flows of 91 million pounds and finished the period with a net cash position of 36 million pounds. The group added that it has identified a further 12 million pounds of cost savings in addition to the 17 million pounds it has already achieved. However, WH Smith shares fell by 18p to 634p after the company announced that CEO Kate Swann will step down from her position, after nine years, on 30th June next year. She will be succeeded by Commercial Director Steve Clarke.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Scottish football club Rangers FC has announced plans to float on the AIM market and to raise 20 million pounds. Facing bankruptcy since February 2012, the club has been demoted to the Scottish third division and many have raised concerns that its players may not be willing to stick around for the minimum of three years it would require for the club to return to the Scottish Premier League. Additionally, it is believed that the firm will need to raise similar levels of cash each year in order to cover its costs until it returns to its previous heights.

Shares in AFC Energy (AFC) surged by 4p to 33.25p after the firm reported that it has secured 8.67 million pounds of funding through an equity placing with Ervington Investment, a company ultimately controlled by Chelsea football club owner Roman Abramovich, for a 15% stake in AFC. The funds will allow the firm to continue the development of its fuel cell technology and the group noted that following completion of the deal it will have a cash balance of 11.2 million pounds.

Provexis (PXS) announced that its Science in Sport business, acquired in June 2011, was performing well and the food and nutrition company remains confident in achieving full year profit targets. The group also noted that it has completed the first industrial scale trial of its Fruitflow supplement, adding that a second, larger scale run is set to begin at the end of October. The shares gained 0.05p to 1.65p.

LED lighting manufacturer LPA Group (LPA) has won two contracts worth a combined 0.7 million pounds and believes that it may have exceeded market expectations for the year ended 30th September. However, the firm noted that trading conditions have been "unusually good" due to a number of short-term medium sized contracts. The group now plans to begin a period of investment to develop its technical and sales resources and admitted that this may lead to a reduction in growth in the short term. LPA shares sank by 2.5p to 82p.

Lo-Q (LOQ) reported that it has secured a contract, of undisclosed size, with a major US theme park operator for the installation of its Q-bot virtual queuing system. The product will be installed in two of the client's parks for four years, with an option to extend the deal for a further two years. The group noted that if proven to be effective the product may be installed in other theme and water parks owned by the client in the US and worldwide. The shares swelled by 20.5p to 344p.

Mobile banking technology developer Monitise (MONI) said that trading in its first quarter was in-line with expectations. The firm noted that it had entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Bank of China and global alliance agreement with information technology company Cognizant. The group added that it has over 17 million registered customers worldwide. Monitise shares advanced by 0.5p to 37.75p.

PLUS-quoted Chapel Down Group (CDGP) warned that grape yields at its vineyards are likely to be between 25% and 30% lower than last year. The vintner said that while its Kent and Essex based vineyards performed well, areas in Sussex and further west were heavily impacted by early frost as well as heavy rain and cool weather. As a result, the firm noted that it will have to impose higher prices on its still wines next year in order to compensate. The shares were unchanged at 15.75p.

* Chapel Down Group is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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