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Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Summit Corporation - Initiation of dose-escalation study and achievement of milestone payment. Speculative buy with an 11p targe

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13th June 2012

Analyst: Emanuil Manos Halicioglu
Email: emanuil.halicioglu@gecr.co.uk
Tel: 0207 562 3368


Summit Corporation - Initiation of dose-escalation study and achievement of milestone payment. Speculative buy with an 11p target price.

Key Data

EPIC

SUMM

Share Price

2.625p

NMS

25,000

Spread

2.5p - 2.75p

Total no of Shares

354.09 million

Market Cap

£9.29 million

12 Month Range

2.375p - 13.375p

Market

AIM

Website

Sector

Biopharma

Contact

Richard Pye
Corporate Development
01235 443939


Summit Corporation is making good progress with its drug discovery programme for the treatment of the fatal genetic disease Duchene Muscular Dystrophy (DMD), with the firm reporting that its SMT C1100 Phase 1 dose-escalation study in healthy volunteers was initiated in May 2012 and that it will now progress to the stage where participants receive multiple doses. This achieves a milestone as part of the $1.5 million agreement signed with a group of US-based DMD organisations and, accordingly, Summit will receive the final payment of $250,000. We reiterate our speculative buy stance with an 11p target price.

The company added that the funding will enable the completion of Phase 1 of SMT C1100, after which it will seek an appropriate partner to advance its drug candidate to a stage where it will be able to evaluate its effectiveness on DMD patients (Phase 2). With the DMD market estimated to be worth in excess of $1 billion per annum in sales (source: company), we are pleased to see its drug discovery programme making real progress. We expect results from this trial to be announced by the end of this year.

Valuation

In light of the milestone payment, we continue to forecast a pre-tax loss of £4.74 million for the current financial year, as the group ramps up research and development for Phase I testing (£3.90 million), on revenue of £1.04 million.  For the following year, we are anticipating lowered R&D expenses (£2.2 million) - with no Phase I studies expected to be conducted - and a deal to be made with one of its key assets, in which an up-front payment is likely to be made as a result. Accordingly, we have pencilled in a pre-tax profit of £2.43 million on revenue of £6.5 million for financial year 2013/14.

Valuing the shares on a two-year historic average EV/sales of 4.44 times, we have derived a target price of 11p. There is significant upside here, with SMT C1100 having sales potential in excess of $1 billion per annum and CDI having a market potential in excess of $2.5 million per annum (source: Company), and the potential utility of its Seglin™ Technology encompassing a broad range of different therapy areas and multiple drug targets. Speculative buy.

Financial records & forecast table

Year ended: 31st January

Sales (£000)

PBT (£000)

EPS (p)

PE Ratio (x)

Dividend (p)

Yield (%)

2010A

189

(5,819)

(8.13)

NA

0.00

0.00

2011A

763

(5,916)

(2.82)

NA

0.00

0.00

2012A

1,765

(2,998)

(1.51)

NA

0.00

0.00

2013E

1,040

(4,744)

(1.41)

NA

0.00

0.00

2014E

6,500

2,430

0.88

2.98

0.00

0.00

 




This research note cannot be regarded as impartial as GE&CR has been commissioned to produce it by Summit plc. It should be regarded as a marketing communication.

The information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed. Growth Equities & Company Research is owned by T1ps.com Limited which is commissioned to produce research material under the GE&CR label. However the estimates and content of the reports are, in all cases those of T1ps.com Limited and not of the companies concerned.

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