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Saturday, June 23, 2012

Friday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring BHP Billiton, William Hill and the Weekly Competition


From UK-Analyst.com: Friday 22nd June 2012

Competition

The UK-Analyst Friday Competition is back! For your chance to win a Dead Sea body scrub gift pack send us your funniest caption for the picture below. Email your entry to richard.gill@t1ps.com by 9am on Monday morning.

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The Markets

The UK markets took a hit on Friday following US rating agency Moody's decision to downgrade 15 global banks, including six from the UK. In what was a relative quiet trading session the only other major talking point was the completion of an independent audit of Spain's banks, which concluded they would need up to 62 billion euros in extra funding. European authorities have already agreed to provide up to 100 billion euros, and so the nation's formal request next Monday should go through smoothly.

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 49.50 points at 12,623.07 and the Nasdaq was up by 10.63 points at 2,567.59.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 52.67 points to 5,513.69; the FTSE 250 finished 120.80 points behind at 10,823.86; the FTSE All-Share lost 28.42 points to 2,860.67; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 6.50 points to 674.55.

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Broker Notes

Fox-Davies kept its "buy" recommendation for EMED Mining* (EMED) with a 36p target price. The copper and gold explorer has presented its Environmental Impact Statement for public comment in Spain, which the broker believes would suggest a high level of confidence in the submission. Fox-Davies said that approval is expected to be granted around September 2012, with copper production to be achieved in late 2013. Shares in EMED fell by 0.25p to 9.5p.

Panmure Gordon retained its "buy" stance on Immunodiagnostic Systems (IDH) with a target price of 530p. Following the two recent profit warnings, the broker has hopes that the firm's preliminary results release on 25th June will show signs of a recovery in the final quarter. Panmure noted that vitamin D sales bounced back to deliver revenues of 16.9 million pounds, compared to an expected 15.4 million pounds, and expects the firm to deliver cost savings of 2 million pounds in the year. The shares gained 4p to 280p.

Shore Capital maintained its "buy" rating for Paragon Group (PAG), impressed with the mortgage provider's improved revenue mix. The broker said that the firm's acquisition of loan portfolios is helping drive earnings growth, noting that the company had a strong pipeline of targets. Shore increased its earnings forecast by 10% for the 2012 financial year to 23.4p, putting the shares on a prospective multiple of 7.2 times. The broker added that the dividend could be increased to between 9p and 10p, giving a yield of between 5.3% and 5.9%. The shares inched down by 1.5p to 169.2p.

Northland Capital reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Gem Diamonds (GEMD), but with a reduced target price of 338p, from 400p. Delays in production at the firm's Letseng mine, as the result of two fatalities, lead the broker to reduce its 2012 revenue forecast from 423.1 million dollars (271 million pounds) to 396.9 million dollars (254.2 million pounds). However, while rough diamond prices remain weak, Northland is confident that this is a short term trend and that demand will exceed supply in the medium term. Gem Diamonds shares crept up by 0.3p to 198.3p.

Blue-Chips

BHP Billiton (BLT) announced that it will invest 845 million dollars (541.3 million pounds) in its Illawarra Coal operation in New South Wales, Australia, by creating a new mining area at its Appin mine. The new development is expected to have a production capacity of 3.5 million tonnes per year, allowing Illawarra to maintain its current rate of 9 million tonnes per year. The shares tumbled by 49p to 1,770p.

Credit rating agency Moody's announced another sweep of downgrades targeting 15 global banks, including Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Barclays (BARC) and HSBC (HSBA), reflecting concern that the government may reduce its level of support in the medium term. Both RBS and HSBC were downgraded by one notch, while Barclays took a two notch hit. RBS disputed the decision, noting that both S&P and Fitch have given it an A rating, compared to Moody's rating of Baa3. Meanwhile, Lloyds Banking Group's (LLOY) short term rating was left unchanged at Prime-1, while long term debt was lowered on notch, from A1 to A2. Shares in RBS slipped by 0.1p to 243.2p, Barclays shares edged down by 1.6p to 200.7p, HSBC shares grew by 3.1p to 562.3p, while those of Lloyds rose by 0.19p to 31.39p.

Mid-Caps

Heritage Oil (HOIL) has begun drilling at its Miran West-4 appraisal well in Kurdistan, with a target depth of 1,550 metres. This is the fifth well to be drilled in the region and is is expected to take three and a half months to complete. Following this the hydrocarbons explorer will begin production with a target rate of between 3,000 and 5,000 barrels per day in order to help fund further development. Heritage Oil shares leaked by 0.7p to 126.3p.

A joint venture, in which London & Stamford Property (LSP) holds a 40% interest, has agreed to buy Moore House, in London for 147 million pounds. The property is part of the Grosvenor Waterside Development and comprises of 117,909 square feet of lettable floor space and a 97 space car park. Broker Shore Capital believes that this will do much to quell investor concern over the firm's ability to acquire replacement properties to help fund its dividend following the sale of its Triangle portfolio and expected disposal of its stake in the Shopping Centre in South Yorkshire. The shares dropped 0.2p to 108p.

William Hill (WMH) has been granted non-restricted gaming licences by the Nevada Gaming Commission, allowing the bookmaker to complete the previously announced acquisitions of American Wagering, Brandywine Bookmaking and Sierra Developments. The company will pay a total consideration of 49 million dollars (31 million pounds), in cash, with a further 8 million dollars (5.1 million pounds) expected to be incurred in integration costs. Shares in William Hill sank by 2.8p to 278.5p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Xcite Energy (XEL) has secured a 155 million dollar secured loan facility with a group of lenders to provide funding for the development of the Bentley oil field in the UK North Sea. The five year agreement, which will make up a substantial amount of the cash injection Xcite will require, is subject to a number of conditions including the minimum cumulative flow volume of 45,000 barrels of oil during the 90 day test flow period at well 9/03b-7. Xcite shares inched 0.25p higher to 79.25p.

Trans-Siberian Gold (TSG) issued an update on production and mining at Asacha reporting ore extraction stood at 20,080 tonnes over April and May with an equivalent amount processed through its plant. Plant throughput has improved considerably following the resolution of power supply in the first quarter of 2012 however its performance continues to be affected by low grade ore thanks to the firm's long hole blasting mining method which is no longer deemed suitable for the fractured rock the firm is currently working with. Trans-Siberian shares fell 2p to 52p.

Global Market (GMC) commenced its first day of trading on AIM after the business-to-business e-commerce service raised 9.7 million pounds to further expand is sales and office team. Global Market links international buyers with high-quality Chinese manufacturers by providing an efficient and trusted online platform. As at the December 2011 the company had 3,712 Chinese manufacturer customers and 903,800 registered buyers. The shares closed at 131p, 1p above their IPO price, valuing the company at just over 128 million pounds.

Shares in Creon Resources (CRO) collapsed 1.13p, or 56%, to 0.875p on news the resources investment company plans to raise up to 12.1 million pounds through the issue of shares at 0.5p a discount of a whopping 75% to the pre-announcement share price. The board noted the announcement is extremely positive news for Creon given its 'difficult historic trading performance', with chief executive Jeswant Natarajan commenting the placing would open the door to a "number of possibilities in executing its investment strategy".

Further delays at Max Petroleum's (MXP) NUR-1 well have left the Kazakstan-focused oil and gas exploration company in a dire financial position, forcing it to seek additional borrowing facilities from its lender Macquarie Group. The well Is now unlikely to reach total depth of 7,250 metres by August thanks to the drill string becoming stuck in the top of salt in April at 5,718 metres. This problem was eventually resolved and after clearing the old well bore progress recommenced although this Monday the well became stuck in another layer of salt at 7,822 metres. Max has calculated that assuming near-term success in freeing the stuck pipe, the total costs for the well are now expected to be approximately 43 million dollars.

Discussions to date with Macquarie have reportedly been slow, impacted by market conditions as well as recent regulatory changes in Kazakhstan that currently prevent Max Petroleum for completing a conventional equity offering. Meanwhile the company's existing 58 million dollar senior debt agreement with the lender is already 93% utilised. The firm admitted that in the absence of additional funding it would be forced to significantly curtail its intended exploration activities. Narrowly missing out on 'dog of the day' to Creon, Max Petroleum shares plummeted 4.66p, or 53% to 4p.

The Week Ahead

Next week we look forward to full year results from mobile technology company Bango (BGO), Plastic and rubber manufacturer Plastics Capital* (PLA) and struggling flooring specialist Carpetright (CPR). Public transport provider Stagecoach (SGC) will also issue its finals and investors will be looking for news over the status of bids for a number of UK rail contracts up for renewal.

We will hear interims from coding and printing firm Domino Printing Sciences (DNO), air filtration company Porvair (PRV) and virtual queue technology developer Lo-Q (LOQ). there will also be half year results from online grocery company Ocado Group (OCDO) whose shares have remained strong despite relentless criticism from a number of brokers, including Panmure Gordon and Shore Capital.

There will also be trading updates from oil and gas support services firm Petrofac (PFC), engineering company Keller Group (KLR) and energy support services provider John Wood Group (WG.).

* Plastics Capital and EMED Mining are corporate clients of Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of UK-Analyst.

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