Kumaresan Selvaraj pillai


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Friday, June 22, 2012

FinNews for the week ending June 22, 2012

FinNews for the week ending June 22, 2012

Top Stories

Meeting Friday, the leaders of the euro zone agreed to provide up to $164 billion in an attempt to jumpstart Spain's economy. (1) In the meantime, Spain aims to funnel relief funds directly to its banks, bypassing the government in order to avoid increasing its debt load. (2) A slew of poor economic data Thursday sent the stock market into its second-worst decline of 2012. The Dow, Standard & Poor's 500, and Nasdaq all lost their gains for the week, each seeing 2 percent and greater declines. (3) Though the stocks have recovered some of their losses, worry over Europe's debt crisis still has left investors hesitant. (4)


Economic Releases & Statistics

In its meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered their estimates for growth in 2012, expecting it to pick up gradually over time. The FOMC stated it would "maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy" and announced it would continue its "Operation Twist" program to lower long term interest rates until the end of the year. (5)

Building permits rose 7.9 percent to a seasonally-adjusted 780 thousand in May, a forty-four month high. Housing starts fell 4.8 percent to a seasonally-adjusted 708 thousand, countering estimates for a 1 percent rise to 730 thousand. (6) U.S. existing home sales fell 1.5 percent last month to a seasonally-adjusted 4.55 million, down from 4.62. (7)

Unemployment claims fell 2,000 last week to a seasonally-adjusted 387,000 last week, only slightly higher than forecasts for a fall to 385,000. (8) Unemployment rose to 8.2 percent, the first rise in nearly a year. Only 69,000 jobs were created last month, half of analyst forecasts. (9)



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Stocks & Earnings

Due to the European debt crisis and the uncertainty in U.S. markets, and bolstered by the monumental Facebook IPO flop, the total number of IPOs for 2012 is 106, a 39 percent drop from last year. (10) Though still the world's top game publisher, Electronic Arts' stock has fallen over 40 percent for the year due to poor recent releases. (11) Bed Bath & Beyond fell 17 percent, suffering weak earnings despite improved profits. ConAgra Foods gained 2.7 percent. (2)


Global Currencies

The euro gained on the dollar this week following Friday's euro zone meeting. The dollar index rose to 82.465, the highest since June. (12) Responding to Europe's crisis, the rupee fell 3.1 percent this week, followed by the baht's 1.1 loss. (13) Meanwhile, the yuan responded only slightly to the crisis. (14)

In Colombia, the peso has appreciated 8.7 percent against the dollar, seeing the most considerable currency gains this year. The Colombian government is aiming for a devalued exchange rate in order to empower bigger dollar interventions. (15)


Oil & Energies

Natural gas storage grew by 62 billion cubic feet to 3.006 trillion cubic feet last week, just shy of the 63-67 bcf gains forecast by analysts. These gains are 27.1 percent higher than the five-year average of 2.365 trillion cubic feet. (16) Crude oil supplies have grown 2.9 million barrels, versus estimates for a 600,000 barrel drop. Gasoline storage rose 900,000 barrels, overshooting forecasts for a 600,000 barrel growth. Distillates improved by 1.2 million barrels, doubling estimates for a 600,000 barrel gain. (17)

Energy giant Encana Corp. aims to improve its 2012 spending by $600 million in order to improve its oil and natural gas commodities production, and remove itself from the depressed natural gas market. (18)


Grains & Field Crops

Monday's Crop Progress report brought news of widespread dry soil throughout the Corn Belt, depriving crops of valuable moisture. The U.S. corn crop labeled excellent consequently fell 1 percent to 11 percent, while the good crop fell 2 percent to 52 percent. Soybeans were also affected: the excellent crop fell 1 percent to 8, and good dropped 3 percent to 48. (19)

Argentina's corn harvest was also heavily affected by drought in the area, resulting in a yield of 5.3 tons per hectare, the lowest in 15 years. Forecasts for its 2011/12 corn production sit at 19 million tons. Its soybean forecast fell to 40.5 million tons, down from May's 40.9 estimate. (20) In an attempt to move away from grains and take advantage of lower production costs, Argentina and Brazil may plant record amounts of soybeans during the 2012-13 period. Argentina aims to plant 19.6 million hectares, up 5.8 percent, and is looking to harvest 54.5 to 55.5 million metric tons. Brazil looks to plant 26.4 million hectares of soybeans, a 5.4 percent growth. (21) Brazil's drought has given rise to ideal corn-growing conditions, resulting in a 26.5 percent acreage increase over 2011's 13 million acres. Successful harvests have prompted the nation's farmers to plant a record second crop. (22)

Wheat production in India rose 35 percent to a record 37.19 million tons this season, shooting past the targeted 32 million. This brings the nation's 2011-12 wheat harvest to an estimated 90.23 million tons. (23)


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Precious Metals

In India, delayed monsoons coupled with hefty gold prices have prompted many investors to turn to silver. These sales have prompted forecasts for a 6 percent return on silver this year, up from last year's negative return. Gold is forecast to have a 20 percent return, 10 percent higher than last year. (24)


Other Commodities

Continued rainfall in Brazil has slowed its coffee crop harvest and delayed confirmation of its size. (25) These rains have also slowed the nation's sugar cane harvesting. (26) In an effort to assist Colombian coffee farmers, Starbucks opened a farmer-support center in the country, the fourth of its kind. There, the company teaches agronomy, guiding farmers in soil analysis, land terracing, and in measures to handle heavy rains. (27)

Some Ivory Coast cocoa farmers have begun returning to their farms out of fear for their crops, despite the risk of being attacked by Liberian forces. (28) Considerable rainfall in the area has both strengthened crops and brought the risk of flooding and disease. Though beneficial following Ivory Coast's long dry spell, without sunlight to ward off insects the current crop may face damages. (29) Indonesia's cocoa full-year harvest is estimated to show a 10 percent improvement this year, though the current crop was delayed until May due to rain during the first quarter. (30) The nation's 2013 cocoa output is forecast to grow 15 to 20 percent, following boosted planting and improved cocoa production and processing. (31)

Next Week:

Date Event GMT Forecast Previous
24-Jun Sun EUR German Import Price Index (MoM)     -0.50%
EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) 2.30%
JPY Small Business Confidence 47.20
CNY HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI 48.70
25-Jun Mon EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey 06:00 5.60 5.70
USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 12:30 0.11
USD New Home Sales 14:00 345K 343K
USD New Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 0.60% 3.30%
USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity 14:30 0.00 -5.10
JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) 23:50 0.30% 0.20%
GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) 0.10% 0.30%
GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) -0.60% -0.70%
CNY Conference Board China May Leading Economic Index 02:00
26-Jun Tue CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 06:00   1.41
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) 08:30 4.0B -23.2B
GBP PSNB ex Interventions 08:30 14.8B -16.5B
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) 08:30 14.0B -18.8B
USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) 13:00 0.20% 0.10%
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) 13:00 -2.00% -2.60%
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 13:00 134.10
USD Consumer Confidence 14:00 64.00 64.90
USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14:00 5.00 4.00
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) 22:45 300M 355M
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) 22:45 4.06B 3.89B
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) 22:45 3.80B 3.53B
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) 22:45 -790M -541M
CNY Leading Index 99.86
27-Jun Wed GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase 08:30 33000.00 32438.00
GBP CBI Reported Sales 10:00 15.00 21.00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) 12:00 0.00% -0.20%
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 12:00 1.80% 1.90%
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) 12:00 -0.10% -0.20%
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) 12:00 2.10% 2.20%
USD Durables Ex Transportation 12:30 0.70% -0.60%
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 12:30 0.60% -1.90%
USD Durable Goods Orders 12:30 0.50% 0.20%
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 12:30 -1.40%
CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index 13:00 150.61
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) 13:00 0.80%
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) 13:00 5.90%
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) 14:00 14.70%
USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 1.30% -5.50%
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 14:30 2861K
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 14:30 360K
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 14:30 1156K
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 14:30 943K
JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index 23:15 50.70
JPY Retail Trade (YoY) 23:50 3.00% 5.80%
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) 23:50 ¥70.8B
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) 23:50 ¥41.1B
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) 23:50 ¥412.6B
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) 23:50 ¥58.8B
JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) 23:50 0.20% -0.30%
JPY Large Retailers' Sales 23:50 -1.00% -0.50%
AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 01:00 6.90%
NZD NBNZ Activity Outlook 01:00 34.90
NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 01:00 27.10
EUR German June Unemployment Data Released by Federal Labor Agency 01:30 0.70%
28-Jun Thu EUR German Unemployment Change 07:55 3K 0K
EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 07:55 6.70% 6.70%
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 08:30 -0.10% -0.10%
GBP Current Account (Pounds) 08:30 -9.0B -8.5B
GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) 08:30 3.60% 3.60%
GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) 08:30 14.20% 14.20%
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 08:30 -0.30% -0.30%
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator 09:00 -0.87 -0.77
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 09:00 -19.60 -19.60
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence 09:00 89.60 90.60
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence 09:00 -12.00 -11.30
EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence 09:00 -6.00 -4.90
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) 12:30 1.90% 1.90%
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) 12:30 2.10% 2.10%
USD Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 385K 386K
USD Personal Consumption 12:30 2.70% 2.70%
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 12:30 1.70% 1.70%
USD Continuing Claims 12:30 3299K
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 14:30 62.00
USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 15:00 9.00
USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks in Cleveland 15:30
USD Fed's Fisher Speaks in Aspen on the Economy 16:00
NZD Building Permits (MoM) 22:45 3.00% -7.20%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey 23:01 -29.00 -29.00
JPY Jobless Rate 23:30 4.50% 4.60%
JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio 23:30 0.80 0.79
JPY Household Spending (YoY) 23:30 2.50% 2.60%
JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 23:30 0.20% 0.40%
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) 23:30 0.00% 0.20%
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) 23:30 -0.60% -0.30%
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) 23:30 -0.50% -0.50%
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) 23:30 -0.70% -0.80%
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) 23:30 -1.20% -1.30%
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) 23:50 6.60% 12.90%
JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) 23:50 -0.60%
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) 23:50 -2.80% -0.20%
USD NAPM-Milwaukee 55.20 57.70
CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) 01:30 -1.60%
AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) 01:30 0.40% 0.40%
AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) 01:30 3.90% 3.80%
CNY MNI June Business Condition Survey 01:35
CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 02:30 48.40
NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) 03:00 5.50%
29-Jun Fri JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) 04:00   173.80%
JPY Construction Orders (YoY) 05:00 16.20%
JPY Annualized Housing Starts 05:00 0.882M 0.896M
JPY Housing Starts (YoY) 05:00 6.50% 10.30%
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 05:30 0.00% 0.00%
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 05:30 0.30% 0.30%
CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator 07:00 0.78 0.81
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) 08:00 2.60% 2.70%
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) 08:00 2.30% 2.50%
GBP Index of Services (3M/3M) 08:30 -0.20% 0.10%
GBP Index of Services (MoM) 08:30 0.00% 0.50%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) 09:00 2.40% 2.40%
CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 12:30 0.20% 0.10%
CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 12:30 1.90% 1.60%
CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) 12:30 0.10% 0.00%
CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) 12:30 -1.50% -2.00%
USD Personal Income 12:30 0.20% 0.20%
USD Personal Spending 12:30 0.10% 0.30%
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) 12:30 -0.10% 0.00%
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) 12:30 1.50% 1.80%
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) 12:30 0.20% 0.10%
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) 12:30 1.80% 1.90%
USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy in Arkansas 13:05
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager 13:45 53.00 52.70
USD U. of Michigan Confidence 13:55 74.10 74.10

1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/amid-crisis-leaders-of-germany-france-italy-and-spain-meet-in-rome/2012/06/22/gJQAMaieuV_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop

2. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06/22/spain-to-reveal-size-bank-bailout-july/

3. http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/story/2012-06-21/stocks-thursday-6-21/55731458/1

4. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/22/us-markets-global-idUSBRE8520GN20120622

5. http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/20/text-fomc-statement-from-june-19-20-meet-idINDEE85J0E620120620

6. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11585776/1/building-permits-surged-while-housing-starts-retreated-in-may-usd-tumbles.html

7. http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-06-21/economy/32343033_1_median-prices-prices-surge-home-sales

8. http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-06-21/economy/32342275_1_jobless-claims-jobless-rate-level-economists

9. http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-economy-jobs-20120601,0,4574904.story

10. http://www.cnbc.com/id/47906154

11. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-treads-water-as-videogame-market-shifts-2012-06-22?link=MW_latest_news

12. http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/22/markets-forex-idINL5E8HM1LD20120622

13. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-22/asian-currencies-complete-weekly-drop-as-growth-forecasts-cut

14. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-14/yuan-steady-after-central-bank-raises-fixing-by-most-in-a-week.html

15. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-13/colombia-needs-aggressive-currency-war-action-echeverry-says.html

16. http://www.boston.com/cars/news/articles/2012/06/21/us_natural_gas_supplies_grew_last_week/

17. http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2012/06/21/eia-report-increase-of-2-9-million-barrels-in-oil-inventories/

18. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/encana-boosts-spending-plan-600-million-to-broaden-focus-on-natural-gas-liquids/article4361988/?cmpid=rss1

19. http://www.porknetwork.com/e-newsletters/pork-daily/159567825.html

20. http://en.mercopress.com/2012/06/21/drought-hit-argentina-soy-beans-and-corn-crops-really-hard

21. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-19/south-american-soy-plantings-seen-at-record-by-oil-world

22. http://farmfutures.com/story.aspx/brazil-reaps-record-corn-crop-after-extreme-drought-17/60746

23. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/wheat-procurement-swells-to-record-37-19-million-tonnes/articleshow/14338320.cms

24. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=153795&sn=Detail&pid=102055

25. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303836404577474720873449052.html

26. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4ded047e-baef-11e1-81e0-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fmarkets%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz1yY6PCKz7

27. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2018473302_starbucks20.html

28. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-19/ivory-coast-cocoa-growers-risk-attacks-in-return-to-farms

29. http://af.reuters.com/article/ivoryCoastNews/idAFL5E8HIEMF20120618

30. http://af.reuters.com/article/ghanaNews/idAFL3E8HF2K720120615

31. http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/indonesia-cocoa-output-may-jump-20-in-2013-institute-says/524320

 

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