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Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Wednesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring WPP, JD Sports Fashion and Nautical Petroleum


From UK-Analyst.com: Wednesday 13th June 2012

The Markets

The World Bank warned that the global economy is likely to see "a long period of volatility" as it struggles to cope with the spiralling eurozone crisis. With growth in developing markets expected to fall by 80 basis points to 5.3% in 2012, the Bank told governments to look towards implementing measures to sustain long-term growth. Meanwhile, there was moderately positive news from Europe, as eurozone industrial production figures for May came in ahead of expectations, falling by 2.3% year-on-year instead of the expected 2.7%. Over in the US, retail sales also fell, by 0.2%, according to figures from the US Commerce Department, with homeowners determined to continue saving, despite interest rates holding at record lows of 0.25%.

At the London close the Dow Jones was up by 8.70 points at 12,582.50 and the Nasdaq was up by 10.84 points at 2,557.04.

In London the FTSE 100 rose by 10.07 points to 5,483.81; the FTSE 250 finished 22.57 points behind at 10,538.59; the FTSE All-Share gained 0.66 points to 2,834.70; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 1.32 points to 678.84.

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Broker Notes

Investec Securities kept its "buy" recommendation on Aviva (AV.) with a 517p target price. The broker attributes the recent share price underperformance to an overreaction to increased volatility in Europe during the third quarter, which accounted for 36% of new business in 2011. However, Investec believes that this volatility is unlikely to continue, adding that confidence should return with the appointment of a new chief executive. On the broker's forecasts, the shares trade on a prospective earnings multiple of 6.4 times for 2012, falling to 5.8 times in 2013. The shares inched down by 2.6p to 263.8p.

N+1 Brewin retained its "buy" stance on Oilex (OEX) with a target price of 37p. The oil and gas explorer has suffered delays at its Cambay 76H well in India, but the broker maintained that the large asset base continues to offer value to investors. Brewin estimates that the firm could have net recoverable resources of up to 222 billion cubic feet of gas and 37 million barrels of oil, with a further prospective reserve of 430 bcf and 63 million barrels of oil. The broker added that demand for gas in India remains high, while a shrinking local supply is driving up prices. Oilex shares were unchanged at 7.875p.

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Canaccord Genuity reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Novae Group (NVA) with a 415p target price. The broker said that the insurance underwriter achieved a price increase in US renewals of between 5% and 7% and noted that it is not as heavily weighted towards catastrophe insurance as its peers. Canaccord added that the shares trade on a prospective tangible book value of 0.8 times for the 2012 financial year, compared to larger cap peers trading on multiples of between 1 and 1.4 times. The shares rose by 7p to 368p.

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" rating for Snoozebox (ZZZ) with a target price of 56p. The broker is impressed by the quality of the portable housing manufacturer's product and believes it could become a staple at large sporting and cultural events. Panmure pointed out that since being listed, the group has already deployed rooms at Windsor Castle Home Park and the Download Festival, and noted that they do not require planning permission as events usually last under 28 days. The broker forecasts EBITDA of 3.8 million pounds in the 2013 financial year, on revenues of 10.5 million pounds. Shares in Snoozebox fell by 0.25p to 43p.

Blue-Chips

J Sainsbury (SBRY) reported sales growth of 3.6%, year-on-year, for the 12 weeks ended 9th June 2012, with the supermarket adding that like-for-like growth outperformed the market at 1.4%. The firm continued the relaunch of its "by Sainsbury's" range, which is now 75% complete and also noted strong growth in the clothing and general merchandise sector. The group added 63,000 square feet of floor space during the period, opening 21 new convenience stores and refurbishing eight existing shops. Sainsbury shares tumbled by 7.6p to 283.5p.

There was a new shareholder revolt at WPP (WPP), spearheaded by independent advisory consultancy PIRC, with nearly 60% of voters rejecting the firm's remuneration report. Outrage was sparked by the proposed 6.8 million pound payout for the media company's chief executive Sir Martin Sorrell. The proposed package consisted of 1.3 million pounds in annual wages, a 2 million pound bonus and 3 million pounds worth shares, and is a 60% increase on the prior year. The sum was considered excessive in light of a string of poor acquisitions that resulted in a 1.3 billion pound write-down for the year. The shares dropped by 15p to 753p.

Mid-Caps

JD Sports Fashion (JD.) expects to take a 10 million pounds hit for the year ending January 2013 in operating losses from the acquisition of outdoor clothing retailer Blacks Leisure, together with an additional possible charge of 5 million pounds in restructuring costs. Meanwhile, the sporting goods company reported sales growth of 1.5% in the 19 weeks ended 9th June 2012, but warned that margins were facing growing pressure as a result of introducing greater discounts on products. Shares in JD Sports edged up by 3.5p to 615.5p.

Oil and gas explorer Cairn Energy (CNE) announced a bid for AIM listed Nautical Petroleum (NPE) at a price of 450p per share, at 51.1% premium to the closing price on 12th June 2012. The offer values the target at 414 million pounds and will increase Cairn's presence in the North Sea. The deal is expected to increase the group's near term operational pipeline, while it continues its as yet fruitless hunt for oil in Greenland. Share in Cairn declined by 3.2p to 288.7p, while those of Nautical surged by 164.25p to 462p.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

Clontarf Energy (CLON) reported that the re-appraisal of a well drilled in 1999 at its Panguana site in southern Peru has revealed a possible oil discovery of around 31 million barrels. The hydrocarbons explorer noted that the block is located just 100km away from the Camisea gas field which is believed to contain around 13 trillion cubic feet of gas. The group added that it is in discussions with prospective joint venture partners in order to help fund the exploration process. The shares jumped by 0.5p to 4p.

Shares in Quayle Munro Holdings (QYM) crashed by 87.5p to 487.5p after it warned that poor trading in the second half of the financial year ending 30th June 2012 is likely to result in the corporate finance adviser reporting a pre-tax loss for the period. The news comes after a previous announcement in March, which stated that the record performance of 2011 was unlikely to be repeated. However, the group remained hopeful that it will be able to announce some major transaction completions at the start of the new financial year.

Professional services conglomerate Christie Group (CTG) announced that revenue growth had remained strong in the start of the financial year, benefiting from clients looking to de-leverage their businesses. The company noted a resurgence in large deal sizes, including the sale of the 918 pub Galaxy portfolio for 422 million pounds, for which it was an advisor. Christie added that it completed the acquisition of Orridge Business Sales during the period, making it the largest pharmacy agent and advisor in the UK. The shares leapt by 7p to 77.5p.

Smart Metering Systems (SMS) has secured a contract to supply its automated meter reading system, ADM, to gas provider Total SA's (TTA) commercial customers. The deal covers the installation of around 15,000 meters and will last for three years, which the firm equated in value to providing 250,000 domestic metres. The news follows a deal with SSE (SSE) for the installation and maintenance of 180,000 domestic units. Shares in Smart Metering gained 17.5p to 161p.

Neuroscience researcher Proximagen Group (PRX) said that during the six months ended 31st March 2012 it has begun Phase I clinical trials of its VAP-1 antagonist treatment for rheumatoid arthritis and was awarded a grant to fund the research of its D1 programme in Parkinson's disease. The firm invested 3.1 million pounds in development and added that at the end of the period it retained a strong balance sheet, with cash of 48 million pounds. The shares climbed by 60p to 335p.

Shares in Rubicon Diversified Investments (RUBI) were readmitted to trading on AIM following the acquisition of Lonrho's (LONR) aviation business Fly 540 for 85.7 million dollars (55 million pounds). In a deal with easyGroup owner Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the firm will look to create a budget airline network across Africa, which will be branded Fastjet. As part of the deal, easyGroup will hold a stake in Rubicon and former chief operating officer of easyJet (EZY) Ed Winter will be appointed chief executive of the group. Shares in Rubicon lost 0.15p to 3.4p, while those of Lonrho advanced by 0.3p to 9.4p.

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