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Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Tuesday's Stock Market Report from UK-Analyst: featuring BP, Ocado and Wynnstay


From UK-Analyst.com: Tuesday 26th June 2012

The Markets

Speaking at the Treasury committee, Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King admitted he had become increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the global economy. His concerns lie with the fact that the Eurozone crisis had continued for longer than anticipated and that the performance of emerging markets, particularly in Asia, was worsening. With this in mind, on top of May's public borrowing figure coming in higher than expected, he admitted the central bank would consider lowering interest rates. Meanwhile, the European Union unveiled its plans for the future vision of the Eurozone, which would see closer monetary union between the nations. Of the many changes outlined by the new structure, the major talking points were the intentions to create a European treasury to centrally manage national budgets and the issue of common Eurozone debt.

At the London close the Dow Jones was down by 12.79 points at 12,489.87 and the Nasdaq was up by 5.15 points at 2,841.31.

In London the FTSE 100 fell by 3.69 points to 5,446.96; the FTSE 250 finished 6.05 points behind at 10,665.37; the FTSE All-Share lost 1.65 points to 2,826.40; and the FTSE AIM Index declined by 2.01 points to 661.61.

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Broker Notes

Panmure Gordon maintained its "buy" stance on Aquarius Platinum (AQP), noting the recent suspension of operations at the Everest project was a rational response by the company to challenging market conditions. This decision should alleviate concerns over the balance sheet, with Aquarius funded up to mid 2014, according to the broker's forecasts. Despite this, Panmure wants to see more clarity from Aquarius on the longer term plans for its suspended mines as at the present time it is far from clear as to what the company intends to do with these assets. The shares closed unchanged at 49p.

N+1 Brewin continues to hold an "add" rating on Elementis (ELM) with a 220p price target, commenting that the recent acquisition of of Brazilian coating additives firm Watercryl provides a platform for growth in South America. The firm is paying 24 million dollars - 10 times 2012 EBITDA - for the target, and while only expected to increase next year's earnings per share by 1%, it is important strategically given the cross selling opportunities provided. The broker believes the deal has been well received and notes the balance sheet is in 'excellent shape', aiding the firm's ambition to complete further acquisitions. Elementis shares crept 6.4p higher to 194.3p.

Blue-Chips

With Serco Group's (SRP) interim trading period for the six months to June ending this week, the company announced that it remains on track to meet its expectations for 2012, anticipating another year of strong revenue growth and widening margins. Despite, this tough conditions in the US federal market mean that revenue in the first half will actually be marginally behind the comparable period in 2011. This will be marginally offset however by its regional frontline operations in Africa, Middle East, Asia and Australia, which have seen strong growth. Serco shares fell 10.5p to 529.5p on the news.

International oil and gas service provider Petrofac (PFC) also provided an update on trading in the six months to June, confirming it had seen good operational performance across its projects in the year to date and remains on course to deliver net profit growth of 15% in 2012. Engineering, construction, operations and maintenance order intake year to date stood at 1.3 billion dollars with a further 1.1 billion dollars of orders pending contract signature. Add to this a 400 million dollar deal awarded to its integrated energy services division for the Panuco contract area in Mexico, and group backlog is expected to be 9.1 billion dollars by 30th June. Petrofac shares slipped 11p to 1,346p.

BP (BP.) will be disposing of its non-operating interests in the Alba and Brittania fields in the UK North Sea to Mitsui & Company for 280 million dollars in cash by the end of September following regulatory and licensee approvals. The board noted that the agreement is a further example of BP's active management of its business portfolio, a strategy which aims to focus on core activities and future growth. BP shares inched 0.45p lower to 401.6p.

Mid-Caps

Domino Printing (DNO) warned that difficult trading conditions were delaying customers' investment decisions, as it reported a 3% slide in sales to 151 million pounds over the six months to April and a 9% drop in pre-tax profits to 25.7 million pounds. Sales of new technology products such as laser and thermal transfer overprinting were ahead of the prior year and demand for consumables were in line with expectations however this was offset by a drop in new equipment revenues. Despite this the company remains confident in the quality of its business and the longer-term prospects for growth, conveyed by a 10% increase in the interim dividend to 7.24p. This is perhaps what helped the shares rise by 11p to 520p.

Transport firm Stagecoach Group (SGC) saw pre-tax profits slip by 1.2% to 202.5 million pounds during the year to April, despite an 8.4% climb in sales to 2.59 billion pounds following a substantial climb in operating costs. The firm emphasised that it continued to see robust organic growth in its bus and rail services in the UK and North America, and was particularly excited about the next phase of its growth plan for its budget coach brand megabus.com. Stagecoach shares closed 13.7p higher at 263.5p.

Shares in food delivery firm Ocado Group (OCDO) plunged 22.1p to 86p as the firm conceded that pre-tax profits for the 24 weeks to 13th May came in little changed at 200,000 pounds, despite revenues rising by 11.4% to 208 million pounds. Sentiment was also hit by the firm admitting that the Olympics could potentially hit performance. Management added that the group's active customer had continued to grow, hitting 337,000 during the period, but that partially offset by a fall in the average order size by 0.9% to 113.10 pounds. Broker Shore Capital, a long-term bear of the investment case, retained its "sell" stance on the new.

Small Caps, AIM and PLUS

A delay in completing certain transactions before the year ended March 2012 will mean that pre-tax profits at international property and infrastructure consultant Sweett Group (CSG) will be "commensurately lower than market expectations". The Inverclyde and Dumfries & Galloway schools PFI projects are however due to be completed shortly according to Sweett and thus have been deferred to the financial year to March 2013. Sweett Group shares were hit heavily by the announcement, falling by 3.5p to 19.5p.

Shares in Private and Commercial Finance Group (PCF) jumped by 0.75p to 4.75p as the lender reported a 67% surge in pre-tax profits to 761,000 pounds for the twelve months to March thanks to a significant improvement in the performance of its loan portfolio and the sale of 11 million pounds of receivables at a premium to its book value. New business advances totalled 37.9 million pounds for the year, marginally down on the 2011 figure, however the firm noted that with 19 million pounds in additional bank facilities provided to it in the last six months, performance of the group will further improve this year.

Croma Security Solutions Group (CSSG) reported it has won a contract with ODEON Cinemas for the design, supply and integration of security systems for two new build cinemas in Dorchester and Llanelli. Croma will initially receive 100,000 pounds in revenue from the contract and will provide ongoing maintenance arrangements thereafter. With a contract signed last week with Walsall Healthcare NHS Trust worth 250,000 pounds and a 70,000 pound deal with traffic management company Colas announced in late May, Croma is on track to deliver some impressive figures for the year to December. The shares rose 0.5p to 45p.

Animal feed manufacturer Wynnstay Group (WYN) unveiled a 14% climb in pre-tax profits to 4.52 million pounds for the six months to April. This was on the back of sales growth of 18% to 193.7 million pounds. On a divisional basis, the agriculture arm saw top-line growth of 19% thanks to the expansion of its arable activities, particularly with the acquisition of Wrekin Grain in May 2011. Wynnstay Stores and Just for Pets saw revenues grow by 12% following the continuation of the group's store roll-out plan. This improvement in performance enabled the firm to declare a 9.6% increase in the interim dividend to 2.85p per share.

From a wider perspective, Wynnstay added that the outlook for the UK agriculture industry is positive, an increasing world population acting as just one factor driving this. With the company supplying a wide range of agriculture inputs to both arable and livestock farmers, Wynnstay's business model is naturally hedged and this, alongside the firm's robust balance sheet, sits the firm in a comfortable position for the remainder of the year. Broker WH Ireland has an "outperform" rating on the shares, which finished 1p ahead at 385p.

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